Region 19 Playoff Chances after Week 7

[OZZIEOHIO]

Heres how they sit now.

1 6-1 866 Baltimore Liberty Union 11.5929 25.5 79.5 100
2 5-2 1048 Minford Minford 11.0000 21.0 80.0 100
3 6-1 1063 Woodsfield Monroe Central 10.9120 23.0 75.5 99
4 7-0 614 Fredericktown Fredericktown 10.6429 29.0 65.0 100
5 6-1 296 Caldwell Caldwell 10.2143 22.5 70.0 100
6 7-0 1186 Oak Hill Oak Hill 10.1786 27.5 62.5 100
7 6-1 458 Coal Grove Dawson-Bryant 10.0357 26.5 62.5 100
8 6-1 1084 Nelsonville Nelsonville-York 8.9214 25.0 53.5 100
9 5-2 1696 Wheelersburg Wheelersburg 8.6929 22.0 55.5 100
10 7-0 1300 West Lafayette Ridgewood 8.4786 27.5 45.5 100
11 5-2 162 Barnesville Barnesville 7.8143 22.5 46.0 100
12 6-1 1586 Lucasville Valley 7.0857 26.5 33.0 100

[iwearblacknikes]

Looks good for the Oaks!

[fuzzhead]

As I said on another thread:

Wheelersburg/CG make it, Ridgeweed/NY don't.

^^^ That's the most likely scenario.

[Dbzshibainu]

i found this on the same site, check out the projected seeds based on 25,000 simulations

http://www.fantastic50.net/index.php?pr=Ohio_Seeds

Region 19 Projected Seeds
1) Fredericktown
2) Minford
3) Monroe Central (Woodsfield)
4) Oak Hill
5) Liberty Union (Baltimore)
6) Wheelersburg
7) Caldwell
8) Ridgewood (West Lafayette)

Region 15 Projected Seeds
1) Amanda-Clearcreek (Amanda)
2) Ironton
3) Heath
4) West Muskingum (Zanesville)
5) Coshocton
6) Fairland (Proctorville)
7) Zane Trace (Chillicothe)
8) Alexander (Albany)

[YOU'RE TIGER BAIT]

i just want a home game, could care less who it is. gotta beat portsmouth , is the first step.

[fuzzhead]

If those simulations for region 19 turn out to be correct, the opening round of the playoffs will be very dull except for maybe the potential Wheelersburg/Monroe Central game. The rest would be blowouts.

Everyone wants to see either Oak Hill/Minford or CG/Minford again. Another matchup that would be highly-anticipated would be another installment of the long-dormant Coal Grove/Wheelersburg series or a rematch of Wheelersburg/Minford.

[Bushy Tail Butcher]

Looks like everyone is wanting a piece of the Falcons. And that is something we have been looking for, for years. Starting to feel like Coach D. and the staff has really got the Falcon program going the right way.

But right now the thing that us old Minfordites really want is a Gold Football, and to be the only SOC II Champ's. We don't want to share with anybody. We will let the play-offs take care of themselves.

Proud to be a Falcon!!!

[Bucknut27]

If those simulations for region 19 turn out to be correct, the opening round of the playoffs will be very dull except for maybe the potential Wheelersburg/Monroe Central game. The rest would be blowouts.

Everyone wants to see either Oak Hill/Minford or CG/Minford again. Another matchup that would be highly-anticipated would be another installment of the long-dormant Coal Grove/Wheelersburg series or a rematch of Wheelersburg/Minford.

Who would be your winners using that simulation fuzzhead?

[fuzzhead]

Who would be your winners using that simulation fuzzhead?

Using the simulations below:


Region 19 Projected Seeds
1) Fredericktown
2) Minford
3) Monroe Central (Woodsfield)
4) Oak Hill
5) Liberty Union (Baltimore)
6) Wheelersburg
7) Caldwell
Ridgewood (West Lafayette)

. . . Fredericktown would put up at least 50 on Ridgeweed.
Minford would beat Caldwell by around 40.
Liberty Union would destory Oak Hill.
Monroe Central and Wheelersburg would be a pretty darn good game.

[Mikenmike]

Looks like everyone is wanting a piece of the Falcons. And that is something we have been looking for, for years. Starting to feel like Coach D. and the staff has really got the Falcon program going the right way.

But right now the thing that us old Minfordites really want is a Gold Football, and to be the only SOC II Champ's. We don't want to share with anybody. We will let the play-offs take care of themselves.

Proud to be a Falcon!!!

Coach Daniels is doing a awesome job with the program. On their way to a 3rd straight playoff birth (If burg gets in I think they are the only other team around here to do that over the past 3 seasons). Also their first home playoff game since 2000(If they win out)! Not to mention a outright gold football is in the making for only the second time in school history! The program is deffinetly on the rise and I don't see it slowing down.

[fbfever9]

Fredricktown is really, really tough this year. They probably have to be the front runner for taking this division. However, I could realistically see 5 teams with a good shot at making it to state.

[Dbzshibainu]

it looks like these simulations have fairland beating coal grove in week 10, coal grove has a 96% chance with 9 wins, and fairland has also has a 96% chance with 8 wins. so i believe if neither team slips up the next two weeks that game will have a playoff berth on the line as well as the ovc championship.

[buckeyeshotsphoto]

Nope, they have Coal Grove with a 54% chance of winning and it has them by 1 point

#277 Dawson-Bryant (Coal Grove) (6-1) 107.0
Ranked #32 of 120 in Division V, #8 in Region 19
Str-of-sched 0.341, #543 toughest overall, #71 in Division V
Playoff chance 62% ( 7W-13.5-6% 8W-15.3-36% 9W-18.5-96% )
Projected Seed: Out (Best: #1, Worst: Out)
Week 1: Won 44-42 H vs #471 Meigs (Pomeroy) (2-5, D4 R15)
Week 2: Won 58-6 A vs #583 Paint Valley (Bainbridge) (2-5, D5 R19)
Week 3: Won 36-28 H vs #333 Valley (Lucasville) (6-1, D5 R19)
Week 4: Lost 28-31 H vs #185 Minford (5-2$, D5 R19)
Week 5: Won 36-22 A vs Greenup County () [Ky] (2-4, D2)
Week 6: Won 50-27 H vs #600 Chesapeake (1-6, D5 R19)
Week 7: Won 30-12 A vs #530 South Point (1-6, D4 R15)
Week 8: A vs #545 Rock Hill (Ironton) (1-6, D4 R15) 93% W (20 pts)
Week 9: A vs #705 River Valley (Cheshire) (1-6#, D4 R15) 99% W (38 pts)
Week 10: H vs #276 Fairland (Proctorville) (5-2, D4 R15) 54% W (1 pts)

[Dbzshibainu]

that's strange because they have fairland making the playoffs as the 6 seed and coal grove missing out, at least on the playoff seed projections. if coal grove wins i doubt fairland will be making the playoffs at all never mind as the 6 seed.

[buckeyeshotsphoto]

I too find it strange that their projection has Coal Grove missing playoffs, but also has them winning out with a 99 percent chance of making playoffs if they do win out. Something tells me that this whole website is opinion based...

[wobycat]

The rankings are not saying they are going to make the playoffs, its the percentage of an overall teams chance to make the playoffs. Like Wheelersburg has a 99% chance of making it if they win out, if they lose one game they have like a 69% chance of still making it. Coal Gorove, same way, 100% in if they win out but if they lose their % goes way down after that causing them to fall below Wheelersburg in overall % like Ridgewood. So most of these teams control their own destiny.

[buckeyeshotsphoto]

I know how to read it! I was saying that they predict that we will win out, but they ALSO have us missing playoffs... that doesn't add up when it says that they have a 100% chance of making the post season if they win out.

[YOU'RE TIGER BAIT]

i'm just thrilled to see all these local teams in the running, in all the divisions we represent.

[wobycat]

I know how to read it! I was saying that they predict that we will win out, but they ALSO have us missing playoffs... that doesn't add up when it says that they have a 100% chance of making the post season if they win out.

Apparently you don't!

[Dbzshibainu]

The rankings are not saying they are going to make the playoffs, its the percentage of an overall teams chance to make the playoffs. Like Wheelersburg has a 99% chance of making it if they win out, if they lose one game they have like a 69% chance of still making it. Coal Gorove, same way, 100% in if they win out but if they lose their % goes way down after that causing them to fall below Wheelersburg in overall % like Ridgewood. So most of these teams control their own destiny.

But if their simulations have coal grove winning 54% of the time against fairland, why do they project fairland will make the playoffs and coal grove will not. i know that coal grove won't definetly make the playoffs but they have simulated that they will win out. if that happens i doubt fairland will make the playoffs as a 6 seed, and most likely coal grove would be in. so wheres the consistency.