Division 5 Region 19 in 2010

[NY BUCKS]

I FOR One cant wait till it all plays out.This region will be wide open.

[LetsGoPSU]

seven weeks in -Not pts based
1.Fredericktown
win out to 10-0
2.West Lafayette Ridgewood
win out to 10-0
3.Wheelersburg
@ Valley,@ Portsmouth West
4.Lucasville Valley
@ Portsmouth West,Wheelersburg,Minford
5.Minford
@ Valley
6.Coal Grove Dawson Bryant
win out to 9-1
7.Woodsfield Monroe Central
win out to 8-2
8.Oak Hill
New Richmond
9.Nelsonville-York
Athens
10.Baltimore Liberty Union
West Jefferson
11.Crooksville
Sheridan,@ Maysville
12.Caldwell
Fort Frye
13.Barnesville
@ Monroe Central,@ Magnolia
14.Frankfort Adena
Westfall
15.Beverly Fory Frye
@ Caldwell,Bishop Rosecrans
16.Cardington-Lincoln
North Union
17.Chillicothie Southeastern
Piketon,@ Zane Trace,@ Unioto

[I drain 3's]

Drew Pasteur has his site updated after week 7.

http://www.fantastic50.net/index.php?pr=Ohio_Region_19

Projected Playoff teams:

Projected Seeds
1) Fredericktown
2) Oak Hill
3) Dawson-Bryant (Coal Grove)
4) Valley (Lucasville)
5) Ridgewood (West Lafayette)
6) Nelsonville-York (Nelsonville)
7) Monroe Central (Woodsfield)
8) Minford

[MightyOaksFan]

Newest projects from Drew Pasteur http://www.fantastic50.net/index.php?pr=Ohio_Region_19

Playoff Berth Probabilities
(projected Harbin cutoff 16.18 points)
Fredericktown 100% (7W-17.2H-100%)
Dawson-Bryant (Coal Grove) 97% (7W-15.4H-47% 8W-17.3H-93% 9W-19.6H-100%)
Oak Hill 91% (7W-14.6H-22% 8W-18.4H-99% 9W-22.2H-100%)
Ridgewood (West Lafayette) 87% (8W-13.3H-3% 9W-16.1H-68% 10W-19.1H-100%)
Minford 78% (6W-15.2H-32% 7W-16.2H-65% 8W-20.0H-100%)
Monroe Central (Woodsfield) 75% (7W-14.9H-18% 8W-17.7H-99%)
Nelsonville-York (Nelsonville) 73% (6W-12.7H-2% 7W-15.9H-53% 8W-19.3H-100%)
Valley (Lucasville) 61% (8W-15.4H-30% 9W-19.1H-100%)
Caldwell 53% (8W-14.5H-15% 9W-16.7H-78%)
Wheelersburg 52% (6W-12.3H-1% 7W-16.2H-63% 8W-20.3H-100%)
Adena (Frankfort) 13% (6W-12.3H-1% 7W-15.8H-38%)
Crooksville 8% (7W-13.0H-2% 8W-17.3H-88%)
Liberty Union (Baltimore) 6% (7W-11.7H-1% 8W-15.6H-28%)
Barnesville 5% (7W-12.8H-1% 8W-15.9H-53%)
Fort Frye (Beverly) 1% (8W-13.2H-2%)
Cardington-Lincoln (Cardington) 1% (7W-13.8H-1%)
Southeastern (Chillicothe) 1% (8W-12.6H-1%)

Home Game Probabilities
(projected Harbin cutoff 19.15 points)
Fredericktown 99% (7W-17.2H-18% 8W-18.6H-50% 9W-20.1H-97% 10W-22.7H-100%)
Oak Hill 64% (7W-14.6H-1% 8W-18.4H-35% 9W-22.2H-100%)
Dawson-Bryant (Coal Grove) 60% (8W-17.3H-16% 9W-19.6H-73%)
Valley (Lucasville) 39% (8W-15.4H-1% 9W-19.1H-63% 10W-22.9H-100%)
Ridgewood (West Lafayette) 38% (9W-16.1H-1% 10W-19.1H-53%)
Minford 35% (7W-16.2H-1% 8W-20.0H-88%)
Nelsonville-York (Nelsonville) 35% (7W-15.9H-1% 8W-19.3H-64%)
Wheelersburg 24% (7W-16.2H-1% 8W-20.3H-94%)
Monroe Central (Woodsfield) 5% (8W-17.7H-7%)

Projected Seeds
1) Fredericktown
2) Oak Hill
3) Dawson-Bryant (Coal Grove)
4) Valley (Lucasville)
5) Ridgewood (West Lafayette)
6) Nelsonville-York (Nelsonville)
7) Monroe Central (Woodsfield)
8 Minford

Region Championship Odds
Fredericktown 9:5
Ridgewood (West Lafayette) 4:1
Wheelersburg 11:1
Valley (Lucasville) 11:1
Oak Hill 13:1
Monroe Central (Woodsfield) 15:1
Minford 16:1
Dawson-Bryant (Coal Grove) 22:1
Nelsonville-York (Nelsonville) 25:1

[forward]

N-Y will get beat either by Alexander or Athens........Thats just how they roll....they wont make the top 8
Burg will win out and host.... They are peaking at the right time, lookout!!
According to Mr. Pasteur Valley has a 30% chance with 8 wins.........I think they will beat Minford but not West or Burg......
I would love to see Valley make it in though, obviously they can beat Coal Grove, and they match up well with many of the other teams that will make it....
How cool would it be to have an SOC regional championship.....Monroe is weak Coal Grove is weak, Ridgewood has played absolutely no one, so who know about them, the Freddies are beatable every year Burg just cant seem to get it done with them.....3rd time is a charm..

[NY BUCKS]

^^^^^^^ How much coins you got to Give away?$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$.Ny will give any team in 19 all they want.i think NY may get to the region finals.

[2trap_4ever]

It amazes me that Drew has Wheelersburg 11:1 to win the region but doesn't project them to make the playoffs, can someone explain that one to me.

[91Buckeye]

How good you are as a team doesn't always transfer to a lot of playoff points. No bonus points given for the killer schedule a lot of teams have.

[LetsGoPSU]

so true Buckeye

[I drain 3's]

Thought this was pretty interesting. This was on Drew Pastuer's site.

(Tues., Oct. 12) With three weeks remaining in the season, the
playoff picture is slowly becoming clearer. It seems likely that
all 10-0 teams will make the playoffs, but there are some teams
for which a 9-1 record might not be enough: North Royalton (R1),
Parma (R1), Zanesville (R7), Canton Central Catholic (R13),
West Lafayette Ridgewood (R19), and Caldwell (R19).

Teams that could be 10-0 but hitting the road include:
Twinsburg (R2), Warren Howland (R5), Maple Heights (R6),
Carlislie (R16), North College Hill (R16), Defiance Tinora (R18),
West Lafayette Ridgewood (R19), and Buckeye Central (R21).

Two teams in region 19 could finish 9-1 and still not make the playoffs. One of those teams could finish undefeated and not host. Anyone else think this may be one of the toughest regions in the state?

[fuzzhead]

Lol not even close. That's what happens when you play a weak schedule.

[selonmc]

^^^ Exactly. Ridgewood's out of conference opponents have more to do with them not hosting at 10-0 than this being a strong region. Buckeye Trail, Steubenville Central, and River View are a combined 4-17 on the season so far. They all three might combine for another 2 wins at the most. That would be 6-24. Won't get it done. In Ridgewood's defense, I don't remember SCC being down this bad really as long as I can remember. A typical Crusader team probably would push Ridgewood into a hosting position if they could beat them.

Region 19 and 18 probably match up pretty well. But the MAC schools of Region 20, and Ursuline in Region 17 pushes those two way above 19 at the semifinals level. Take out a half a dozen schools (i.e. Ursuline, Coldwater, Versailles, Anna, etc...) and I think Region 19 can play with anybody in Division 5. Just those elite D5 schools (not too long ago they were D4) are tough to beat.

[I drain 3's]

Maybe I should rephrase. Not the toughest region in the state, but one of the toughest Division 5 regions.

[hammer89]

I also heard that Ridgewood scheduled Trail three years ago when they were 10-0. I don't think anybody thought they would go down the crapper the way they have. I'm sure if they had a crystal ball a few years ago they would not have picked their OOC schedule they had this year. Just the way it goes sometimes. They were in the same boat last year. They finished 10-0 and had to go on the road, but still won the Region. I think homefield advantage in the first round of the playoffs is WAY overrated anyway. I also agree about Region 19, probably does not have the best teams, but is pretty deep. I really believe there will be at least 6 teams that will be capable of winning the region once the playoffs start. How many other Division V regions can say that? The others will probably have 2 or 3 max that will have a legitimate shot at winning their region

[I drain 3's]

As far as the whole weak schedule thing, like the poster above me said, these schedules are made up at least a couple years in advance, so it's tough to tell how good a team will be a few years in the future. Also, some of these teams don't have a lot of options as far as scheduling goes. I mean look at Coal Groves schedule. Theirs probably isn't the toughest, but most of the teams they play are D4 or higher, giving them more points. Caldwell doesn't really have that ability. There aren't many bigger schools around that are relatively close travel wise, and the ones that are aren't that good, so they're basically stuck hoping the Div 5 and 6 teams they can schedule have decent years, which several of them are not.

[seasick80]

Ridgewood has alot of points coming their way by winning next 3 games against schools I believe have 5 or 6 wins this far into season.

[LetsGoPSU]

Ridgewood will be tested over the altter part of the season, thus far Malvern has been it really.
Garaway, Franklin and Newcomerstown have three losses between them
Strausburg is a Div 6 program

[BringN da WOOD]

Ridgewood's schedule is weak but its not their fault, hammer was correct Trail was 10-0 when the Wood scheduled them, Central is just down this year, and River View was good when the Wood picked them up in 05...River view has been replaced with Martins Ferry for next year i believe.

[selonmc]

Ridgewood's schedule is weak but its not their fault, hammer was correct Trail was 10-0 when the Wood scheduled them, Central is just down this year, and River View was good when the Wood picked them up in 05...River view has been replaced with Martins Ferry for next year i believe.

Outstanding upgrade. Will be a good game.

[I drain 3's]

Ridgewood will be tested over the altter part of the season, thus far Malvern has been it really.
Garaway, Franklin and Newcomerstown have three losses between them
Strausburg is a Div 6 program

5 losses between them. Garaway is 5-2, Strasburg is 6-1, and Newcomerstown is 5-2.