division 3 region 12 playoff scenarios

[kvnchambers]

the top part list all region 12 games that matter and teams that pasteur favors. second part lists all level 2 point games that matter.
followed by who is in if all favorites win and then a few scenarios for most likely upsets.

All information either comes from pastuers fab 50 or joe eitels site.
Thurgood marshall beats pointz tech (1-8) 47pts 90%
Archbishop alter (7-1-1) beats chamidade julienne (6-3) 13 pts 73%
Canal Winchester (7-2) beats circleville (6-3) 12 pts 76%
Athens (8-1) beats Nelsonville York (7-2) 5pts 63%
Gallia academy (7-2) beats Jackson (5-4) 12pts 77%
Cincinnati madeira (8-1) beats Wyoming (7-2) 3 pts 57%
Mcclain (6-3) beats Hillsboro (0-9) 24 pts 94%
Archbishop mcnichols (6-3) beats badin 3 pts 58%
Logan elm (5-4) beats Amanda clearcreek (3-6) 13 pts 80%
Tecumsah (7-2) beats Kenton ridge 15 pts 83%
Tippie canoe (8-1) beats Shawnee (6-3) 9 pts 72%
Taft (6-3) beats hughes (4-5) 17 pts 86%
Bishop Watterson (6-3) beats Jonathon alder (4-4) 10 pts 73%
Miami trace 5-4 beats Washington ch 5-4 6 pts 65%


Secondary games

Clay 4-5 beats lima senior 0-9
Eastmoor academy 5-4 beats afrientic 0-9
Chillicothie 3-6 beats 1-8 portsmouth 18 pts 87%
Belmont 3-6 beats Jefferson township 5-3 3pts 56%
Beavercreek 6-3 beats kettering Fairmont 2-7 6 pts 64%
Napoleon 8-0-1 beats bowling green 26 pts 95%
Purcell marion 2-6 beats roger bacon 0-9 17 pts 95%
Bishop fenwick (7-2) beats Dayton carroll 2-6 27 pts 85%
Hamilton twp (7-2) beats bloom carroll (4-5) 12 pts 78%
Teays valley (4-5) beats Fairfield union (2-7) 22 pts 92%
Olentangey orange (5-4) beats Watkins memorial (2-7) 15 pts 82%
Logan (2-7) beats warren (3-6) 5 pts 62%
Waverly (1-8) beats northwest (0-9) 30 pts 97%
Wellston (3-6) beats Vinton county (1-8) 12 pts 78%
Alexander (4-5) beats meigs (2-7) 6 pts 66%
Zanesville (8-1) beats Marietta (1-8) 39 pts 99%
Waynesville (6-3) beats Madison (4-5) 17 pts 86%
Indian hill (2-7) beats reading (3-6) 1 pts 51%
Mariemont (5-4) beats taylor (4-5) 4 pts 60%
Piketon (7-2) beats adena (3-6) 13 pts 80%
Paint valley (5-3-1) beats unioto (5-4) 1 pts 51%
Clinton massie (9-0) beats east Clinton (3-6) 37 pts 99%
Madison plains 4-5 beats londan (2-7) 1 pts 52%
New Richmond (4-5) beats bethel tate (2-7) 24 pts 93%
Zane trace (3-6) beats southeastern (1-8) 22 pts 91%
Northeast spring (4-5) beats mechanicsburg (3-6) 9 pts 71%
Northwest spring (4-5) beats greenon (1-8) 13 pts 80%
Bellefontaine (1-7) beats Stebbins (2-7) 5 pts 62%
Catholic central (1-8) beats cederville (1-7-1)5 pts 63%
Wilmington (4-5) beats little Miami (1-8) 24 pts 93%
Withrow (6-3) beats aiken (0-9) 46 pts 99%
Shroder (7-2) beats woodward (1-8) 29 pts 97%
Dunbar (4-5) beats meadowdle (1-8) 25 pts 94%
Western hills (4-5) beats ameila (4-5) 2 pts 54%
Olentangey liberty (6-3) beats Thomas Worthington (2-7) 26 pts 95%
Hilliard Davidson (7-2) beats Marysville (3-7) 24 pts 93%
Saint Charles (5-4) beats marion harding (3-6) 17 pts 85%



Newport cath Kentucky ??????? beachwood

If favorites win every game

1. Thurgood marshall 20.477 points
2. Archbishop alter 20.135 points
3. Athens 18.80 points
4. Gallia academy 17.230 points
5. Circleville 16.70 points
6. Archbishop mcnichols 15.978 to 16.382
7. Logan elm 14.6 points
8. Mcclain 13.20 points
9. Taft 13.06 points

If Cincinnati Wyoming upsets Cincinnati madeira and all other favorites win 43% chance of upset


1. Thurgood marshall 20.477 points
2. Archbishop alter 20.135 points
3. Athens 18.80 points
4. Gallia academy 17.230 points
5. Wyoming 16.75 points
6. Circleville 16.70 points
7. Archbishop mcnichols 15.978 to 16.382
8. Logan elm 14.6 points
9. Mcclain 13.20 points

If badin beats archbishop mcnichols and all other favorites win 42% chance of upset

1. Thurgood marshall 20.477 points
2. Archbishop alter 20.135 points
3. Athens 18.80 points
4. Gallia academy 17.230 points
5. Circleville 16.70 points
6. Logan elm 14.6 points
7. Archbishop mcnichols 13.457 to 13.303

8. Mcclain 13.20 points

If Nelsonville York upsets Athens and all other favorites win. 37% chance upset happens

1. Thurgood marshall 20.477 points
2. Archbishop alter 20.135 points
3. Gallia academy 17.230 points
4. Circleville 16.70 points
5. Archbishop mcnichols 15.978 to 16.382
6. Athens 15.20 points
7. Logan elm 14.6 points
8. Mcclain 13.20 points
Taft 13.06 points

If Shawnee upsets tippie canoe and all other favorites win. 28% chance of upset happening

1. Thurgood marshall 20.477 points
2. Archbishop alter 20.135 points
3. Athens 18.80 points
4. Gallia academy 17.230 points
5. Circleville 16.70 points
6. Archbishop mcnichols 15.978 to 16.382
7. Shawnee 15.875 points
8. Logan elm 14.6 points
Mcclain 13.20 points
Taft 13.06 points

If Jonathon alder upsets bishop Watterson and all other favorites win 27% chance of upset happening

1. Thurgood marshall 20.477 points
2. Archbishop alter 20.135 points
3. Athens 18.80 points
4. Gallia academy 17.230 points
5. Circleville 16.70 points
6. Archbishop mcnichols 15.978 to 16.382
7. Logan elm 14.6 points
8. Mcclain 13.20 points
Jonathon alder 13.11 points

If chamidade julienne upsets archbishop alter and all other favorites win. 27% chance of upset happening

1. Thurgood marshall 20.477 points
2. Athens 18.80 points
3. Gallia academy 17.230 points
4. archbishop alter 16.706
5. Circleville 16.70 points
6. Archbishop mcnichols 15.978 to 16.382
7. Logan elm 14.6 points
8. Mcclain 13.20 points
Taft 13.06 points

If Circleville upsets canal Winchester and all other favorites win 24% chance of upset

1. Circleville 20.85 points
2. Thurgood marshall 20.477 points
3. Archbishop alter 20.135 points
4. Athens 18.80 points
5. Gallia academy 17.230 points
6. Archbishop mcnichols 15.978 to 16.382
7. Logan elm 14.6 points
8. Mcclain 13.20 points
Taft 13.06 points

If Jackson upsets gallipolis and all other favorites win 23% chance of upset


1. Thurgood marshall 20.477 points
2. Archbishop alter 20.135 points
3. Athens 18.80 points
4. Circleville 16.70 points
5. Archbishop mcnichols 15.978 to 16.382
6. Logan elm 14.6 points
7. Gallia academy 14.256 points
8. Mcclain 13.20 points
Taft 13.06 points

If Amanda clearcreek upsets logan elm and all other favorites win. 20% chance upset happens

1. Thurgood marshall 20.477 points
2. Archbishop alter 20.135 points
3. Athens 18.80 points
4. Gallia academy 17.230 points
5. Circleville 16.70 points
6. Archbishop mcnichols 15.978 to 16.382
7. Mcclain 13.20 points
8. Taft 13.06 points


If Kenton ridge upsets tecumsah and no other upsets happens. 17% chance of upset happening


1. Thurgood marshall 20.477 points
2. Archbishop alter 20.135 points
3. Athens 18.80 points
4. Gallia academy 17.230 points
5. Circleville 16.70 points
6. Kenton ridge 16.17 points
7. Archbishop mcnichols 15.978 to 16.382
8. Logan elm 14.6 points
Mcclain 13.20 points


If Wyoming upsets madeira 43% and badin upsets mcnichols 42% and all other favorites win.




1. Thurgood marshall 20.477 points
2. Archbishop alter 20.135 points
3. Athens 18.80 points
4. Gallia academy 17.230 points
5. Wyoming 16.75
6. Circleville 16.70 points
7. Logan elm 14.6 points
8 archbishop mcnichols 13.457
Mcclain 13.20 points

The only way for Gallia academy or athens either one to be eliminated from playoffs totally is for them to be upset and then 2 of the following 3 things happen. Wyoming winning and Shawnee winning or Kenton ridge winning bracket would look something like this.



1. Thurgood marshall 20.477 points
2. Archbishop alter 20.135 points
3. Athens or Gallia academy
4. Wyoming 16.75 points
5. Circleville 16.70 points
6. Kenton ridge 16.17 points
7. Archbishop mcnichols 15.978 to 16.382
8. Shawnee 15.875
Then Gallia academy/Athens
If both Gallia and Athens lost and above happened Athens would be 8th seed and Gallia academy eliminated.

[Ironman92]

You could at least take a moment and break it down for us.

[bballmaniac]

You could at least take a moment and break it down for us.

Jackson would need too much help to get in even with an upset of Gallia Academy that it would take him days to break all of that down.

[kvnchambers]

according to my math these should be matchups

logan elm at thurgood marshall
shawnee at archbishop alter
circleville at athens
archbishop mcnichols at gallia academy

[GAHS83]

Joe Eitel has Circleville and McNicholas swapped. He's usually pretty good. I think GA will play Circleville and Athens will play McNicholas.

[85cruiser]

McNicholas will be at GAHS.... Roger Bacon and Purcell have a game tonight both of which McNicholas has defeated. The second level points from either team will give McNicholas a boost to the #5 seed.

[pigskinguru]

Joe Eitel has Circleville and McNicholas swapped. He's usually pretty good. I think GA will play Circleville and Athens will play McNicholas.

I would rather play Circleville also but it looks like Athens wins here and gets Circleville (loser of 3 straight games). Gallia gets a visit form McNick!

[superblue]

So far no one is 100% wrong on their prediction....LOL... Could be late tonight before we know our opponent.... Circleville would be the better match up for Gallia... You really don't want to play a private in the first round....

[GalliaGrad78]

Personally, I don't care which team that we play. I am just elated that we have a SEOAL championship and are playing again next week!!

[GAHS83]

McNicholas will be at GAHS.... Roger Bacon and Purcell have a game tonight both of which McNicholas has defeated. The second level points from either team will give McNicholas a boost to the #5 seed.

Gotcha, didn't realize there were games left.