Region 9 after week 9 (an extreme analysis)

[teach1coach2]

Most of this post is the MATH used to determine the Harbin points average. If you disagree with a “pick” I made as to who would win, I put how that affects the average and you can add or subtract as needed to see how it affects things overall [set up to be easy for non-Math people to use ] Normally, I have the better record winning unless common opponents or recent results led me to believe otherwise.

Below is an extreme mathematical analysis of the 10 teams with the best chance to make the playoffs in Region 9. Based on what has happened weeks 1-9 and what will likely happen week 10 with “favorites” winning, here would be the rankings:

FYI: I believe Dover beats New Philadelphia, Licking Valley beats Granville, and Hamilton Township beats Logan Elm.

1) Tri-Valley 28.95 – win (10-0)
2) Dover 28.44040 – win (8-2)
Granville 27.45 – win (9-1)
3) Jackson 26.48571 – win (10-0)
4) Athens 26.25 – win (10-0)
Logan Elm 25.55 – win (8-2)
5) Granville 23.35 – lose to Licking Valley (8-2)
Dover 22.95101 – lose to New Philadephia (7-3)
New Philadelphia 22.4 – win (8-2)
6) Logan Elm 21.95 – lose to Hamilton Township (7-3)
7) DeSales 20.90412 – win (8-2)
8 ) Chillicothe 18.1 – win (7-3)
9) New Philadelphia 18 – lose to Dover (7-3)
10)Big Walnut 17.88636 – win (7-3)


Prediction as of 10/25/14
#1 Tri-Valley hosts #8 Chillicothe (could easily be New Philly or Big Walnut)
#2 Dover hosts #7 DeSales
#3 Jackson hosts #6 Logan Elm
#4 Athens hosts #5 Granville


ORDER if all R9 teams listed win (except New Philly losing to Dover)
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#1 Tri-Valley (Projected 10-0) L1/10 + L2/10= 50/10 + 239.5/10=28.95

Week 1-9 L1= 45, L2= 195.5
Week 10 L1=5 beat Philo (4-5) & gained L2= 18.5 Minus 1.85 from ave. if Philo wins

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 25.5
Granville over Licking Valley (0), if LV wins (5.5); Add .55 to ave. if LV wins
Zanesville over Marietta (5.5), if Mar wins (0); Minus .55 from ave. if Mar wins
West Muskingum over Morgan; TV beat both (5), if Mor wins (4.5) Minus .05 from ave. if Mor wins
Maysville over Claymont (5), if CL wins (0) Minus .5 from ave. if CL wins
Crooksville over John Glenn; TV beat both (5), if JG wins (4) Minus .1 from ave. if JG wins
Sheridan over New Lex; TV beat both (5), if NL wins (5.5) Add .05 to ave. if NL wins

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#2 Dover (Projected 8-2) L1/10 + L2/9.9= 44/10 + 238/9.9=28.44040 Projected Average (Approx. 22.95101 if New Philadelphia beats Dover in week 10)

Week 1-9 L1=38.5 , L2=172
Week 10 L1=5.5 beat New Philadelphia (7-2) & gained L2= 39 Minus 4.48939 from ave. if NP wins

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 27
Lorne Park over St. Joan of Arc (who knows?)(6), if JoA wins (0) Minus .60606 to ave. if JoA wins
Poland over Canfield (0),if Canfield wins (5.5) Add .55556 to ave. if Canfield wins
Waite over Woodward (5.5), if Woodard wins (0) Minus .55556 from ave. if Woodard wins
Zanesville over Marietta; Dover beat both (5.5), if Mar wins (6) Add .05556 to ave. if Mar wins
Coshocton over River View (5), if RV wins (0) Minus .5155 from ave. if RV wins
Cambridge over Meadowbrook (5), if Mead wins (0) Minus .50505 from ave. if Mead wins

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#3 Granville (Projected 9-1) L1/10 + L2/10= 47/10 + 227.5/10=27.45 Projected Average (Approx. 23.35 if Licking Valley beats Granville in week 10)

Week 1-9 L1=42, L2=166.5
Week 10 L1=5 beat Licking Valley (7-2) gained L2=36 Minus 4.1 if LV wins

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 25
River Valley over Upper Sandusky (5); if UA wins (0), Minus .5 if UA wins
Heath over Northridge (4.5), if Northridge wins (0) Minus .45 from ave. if Northridge wins
Cambridge over Meadowbrook (5), if Meadowbrook wins (0) Minus .5 from ave. if Meadowbrook wins
Newark Catholic over Utica (5), if Utica wins (4) Minus .4 from ave. if Utica wins
Watkins Memorial over Lakewood (5.5); Granville beat both, if Lak wins (6) Add .05 to ave. if Lak wins
Johnstown Monroe over Licking Heights (0), if LH wins (5) Add .5 to ave. if LH wins

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#4 Jackson (Projected 10-0) L1/10 + L2/9.8= 47/10 + 213.5/9.8=26.48571 Projected Average

Week 1-9 L1= 42, L2= 171
Week 10 L1=5 beat Gallia Academy (4-5) & gained L2= 18.5 Minus 2.38776 from ave. if GA wins

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 24
Wellston over Vinton County (5.5); if VC wins (0), Minus .56122 from ave. if VC wins
Chesapeake over Waverly (0); if Ches wins (4.5), Add .45918 to ave. if Ches wins
West Jefferson over Londan (5), if Lon wins (0), Add .51020 to ave. if Lon wins
Hartley over Ready (0); if Ready wins (4.5), Add .45918 to ave. if Ready wins
Wheelersburg over P. West (4.5); if PT wins (0), Minus .45918 from ave. if PT wins
Logan over Warren Local (5); if WL wins (6), Add .10204 to ave. if WL wins
Hughes over Portsmouth (0); if Ports wins (5.5), Add .56122 to ave. if Ports wins
Ironton over Raceland (4); if Race wins (0), Minus .40816 from ave. if Race wins

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#5 Athens (Projected 10-0) L1/10 + L2/10=49/10 + 213.5/10 =26.25 Projected Average

Week 1-9 L1=45 , L2=157.5
Week 10 L1=4 beat NelsonvilleYork (7-2) & gained L2=32 (through 8 weeks) Minus 3.6 from ave. if NY wins

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 24
Jackson over Gallia Academy (0); If GA wins (5.5), if GA wins (5.5) Add .55 ave. if GA wins
Zanesville over Marietta (5.5); if Mar wins (0), Minus .55 from ave. if Mar wins
Logan over Warren Local (0); if WL wins (6),Add .6 to ave. if WL wins
Steubenville over Canada Prep (3.5); if CP wins (0), Minus .35 from ave. if CP wins
Alexander over Meigs; Athens beat both (5), Minus .05 from ave. if Meigs wins
Wellston over Vinton County; Athens beat both (5.5), Minus .1 from ave. if VC wins
River Valley over Northwest (4.5); If NW wins (0), Miinus .45 from ave. if NW wins
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#6 Logan Elm (Projected 8-2) L1/10 + L2/10= 41/10 + 214.5/10=25.55 Projected Average (Approx. 21.95 if Ham Twnsp beats LE in week 10)

Week 1-9 L1=35, L2=169.5
Week 10 L1=6 beat Hamilton Township (6-3) & gained L2=30 Minus 3.6 from ave. if HT wins

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 15
Unioto over Zane Trace (0), if ZT wins (5) Add .5 to ave. if ZT wins
Westfall over Adena (4.5), if Adena wins (0) Minus .45 from ave. if Adena wins
Miami Trace over Washington CH (5.5); if Wash wins (0), Minus .55 from (.55) if Wash wins
Teays Valley over Bloom Carroll; LE beat both (5), if BC wins (6) Add .1 to ave. if BC wins
Liberty Union over Fairfield Union (0), if FU wins (4.5), Add .45 from ave. if FU wins
Amanda Clearcreek over Circleville (0), if Cir wins (5), Add .5 to ave. if Cir wins

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#7 DeSales (Projected 9-1) L1/10 + L2/9.7= 41/10 +163 /9.7=20.90412 Projected Average

Week 1-9 L1= 37, L2= 126 (assuming Buchtel over North on 10/25/14)
Week 10 L1=4 beat Linsly (4-3) & gained L2= 16 Minus 2.04948 from ave. if Linsly wins

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 21
Bishop Fenwick over Chaminade Julienne (0); if CJ wins (5), Add .51546 to ave. if CJ wins
Mount Vernon over New Albany (0); if NA wins (6), Add .61856 to ave. if NA wins
Buchtel over Kenmore (5.5); if Kenmore wins (0) Minus .567010 from ave. if Kenmore wins
Warrensville Heights over Lutheran East (3.5); if LE wins (0) Minus .36082 from ave. if LE wins
St. Charles over Marion Harding (6); if MH wins (0) Minus .61856 from ave. if MH wins
Centennel over Whetstone (6); if Whet wins (0) Minus .61856 from ave. if Whet wins
Winton Woods over Watterson (0), if Watterson wins (6) Add .61856 to ave. if Watterson wins

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#8 Chillicothe (Projected 7-3) L1/10 + L2/10= 36.5/10 + 144.5/10=18.1 Projected Average (Approx. 15.4 if Wooster beats WH in week 9)

Week 1-9 L1=31 , L2=90
Week 10 L1=5.5 beat Wilmington (7-2) & gained L2= 38.5 Minus 4.4 from ave. if Wilmington wins

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 16
Walnut Ridge over Independence (5.5), if Ind wins (0), Minus .55 from ave. if Ind wins
Miami Trace over Washington (5.5); Chilli beat both, if Wash wins (5), Minus .05 from ave. if Wash wins
Hillsboro over McClain (5); Chilli beat both, if McC wins (5.5), Add .05 to ave. if McC wins
Massie over East Clinton (0); if EC wins (5), Add .5 to ave. if EC wins

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#9 New Philadelphia (Projected 7-3) L1/10 + L2/10= 39/10 + 141/10=18 Projected Average (Approx. 22.4 if NP beats Dover in week 10)

Week 1-9 L1=39, L2=119.5
Week 10 L1=0 Lose to Dover (6-2). Dover has L2=38.5 Add 4.4 to ave. if NP wins

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 21.5
West Holmes over Clearfork (5), if CF wins (0) Minus .5 from ave. if CF wins
Niles McKinley over Youngstown East (0), if YE wins (5.5) Add .55 to ave. if YE wins
Northwest over Barberton (6), if Bar wins (0) Minus .6 from ave. if Bar wins
Maysville over Claymont (0), if CL wins (5) Add .5 to ave. if CL wins
Zanesville over Marietta; NP beat both (5.5), if Marietta wins (6) Add .5 to ave. if Marietta wins
Cambridge over Meadowbrook (5), if Meadowbrook wins (0) Minus .5 from ave. if Meadowbrook wins

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#10 Big Walnut (Projected 7-3) L1/10 + L2/9.9= 42.5/10 + 135/9.9=17.88636 Projected Average

Week 1-9 L1= 36.5, L2= 123.5
Week 10 L1=6 beat Franklin Heights (1-8) & gained L2= 5.5 Minus 1.15556 from ave. if FH wins

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 6
Madison Comprehensive over Mansfield (0), if Man wins (5.5), Add .55556 to ave. if Man wins
Dublin Scioto over Canal Winchester (0), if CW wins (6), Add .60606 to ave. if CW wins
Olentangy over Hayes (0); if Hayes wins (6), Add .60606 to ave. if Hayes wins
Mount Vernon vs. New Albany (6); Big Walnut beat both
Kilbourne over Orange (0); if Orange wins (6), Add .60606 to ave. if Orange wins

[teach1coach2]

For Tri-Valley:

If New Philly beats Dover, Tri-Valley will host DeSales in week 11.

If Dover beats Philly, TV could host Chillicothe, New Philly, or Big Walnut (those 3 teams will be hundredths of points apart).
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Athens can pass Jackson in harbin points if River Valley and Warren both win.

[teach1coach2]

bump

[Ironman92]

For Tri-Valley:

If New Philly beats Dover, Tri-Valley will host DeSales in week 11.

If Dover beats Philly, TV could host Chillicothe, New Philly, or Big Walnut (those 3 teams will be hundredths of points apart).
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Athens can pass Jackson in harbin points if River Valley and Warren both win.

River Valley might win...can't imagine Warren beating Logan.

Do you have VC over Wellston... Could those points replace 1 of those other two and be enough? Wellston D4 and Northwest D5?

[Raider6309]

Saw this on jjhuddle

(9-0) DRESDEN TRI-VALLEY 25.4000
add 2.3500 if (9-0) Dresden Tri-Valley beats (4-5) Philo
add .5500 if (7-2) Newark Licking Valley beats (8-1) Granville
add .1000 if (4-5) Crooksville beats (4-5) New Concord John Glenn
add .5500 if (4-5) Zanesville beats (3-6) Marietta
add .0500 if (5-4) New Lexington beats (7-2) Thornville Sheridan
add .0500 if (1-8) Zanesville West Muskingum beats (0-9) McConnelsville Morgan
add .5000 if (8-1) Zanesville Maysville beats (4-5) Uhrichsville Claymont

(9-0) JACKSON 22.1592
add 2.3878 if (9-0) Jackson beats (4-5) Gallipolis Gallia Academy
add .5612 if (3-6) Wellston beats (1-8) McArthur Vinton County
add .4592 if (2-7) Waverly beats (6-3) Chesapeake
add .5102 if (5-4) West Jefferson beats (2-7) London
add .4592 if (5-3) Columbus Bishop Ready beats (7-2) Columbus Bishop Hartley
add .4592 if (8-1) Wheelersburg beats (7-2) Portsmouth West
add .1020 if (1-8) Vincent Warren beats (4-5) Logan
add .5612 if (2-7) Portsmouth beats (4-5) Cincinnati Hughes
add .4082 if (6-2) Ironton beats (8-1) Raceland (KY)

(8-1) GRANVILLE 21.8000
add 4.1000 if (8-1) Granville beats (7-2) Newark Licking Valley
add .5000 if (6-3) Caledonia River Valley beats (2-7) Upper Sandusky
add .4500 if (4-5) Heath beats (1-8) Johnstown Northridge
add .5000 if (3-6) Cambridge beats (6-3) Byesville Meadowbrook
add .5000 if (5-4) Pataskala Licking Heights beats (8-1) Johnstown Monroe
add .0500 if (1-8) Hebron Lakewood beats (8-1) Pataskala Watkins Memorial
add .1000 if (4-5) Newark Catholic beats (2-7) Utica

(7-2) DOVER 21.7793
add 4.4894 if (7-2) Dover beats (7-2) New Philadelphia
add .6061 if (5-4) Mississauga Lorne Park (ON) beats (3-3) Maple St. Joan of Arc (ON)
add .5556 if (5-4) Canfield beats (8-1) Poland Seminary
add .5556 if (4-5) Toledo Waite beats (1-8) Toledo Woodward
add .5051 if (3-6) Cambridge beats (6-3) Byesville Meadowbrook
add .5051 if (8-1) Coshocton beats (0-9) Warsaw River View
add .0505 if (3-6) Marietta beats (4-5) Zanesville

(9-0) ATHENS 21.1500
add 3.6000 if (9-0) Athens beats (7-2) Nelsonville-York
add .5500 if (4-5) Gallipolis Gallia Academy beats (9-0) Jackson
add .5500 if (4-5) Zanesville beats (3-6) Marietta
add .6000 if (1-8) Vincent Warren beats (4-5) Logan
add .0500 if (5-4) Albany Alexander beats (4-5) Pomeroy Meigs
add .3500 if (6-3) Steubenville beats (0-6) St. Catharines Canada Prep Football Academy (ON)
add .1000 if (3-6) Wellston beats (1-8) McArthur Vinton County
add .4500 if (4-5) Bidwell River Valley beats (5-4) McDermott Northwest

(7-2) CIRCLEVILLE LOGAN ELM 20.9500
add 3.6000 if (7-2) Circleville Logan Elm beats (6-3) Columbus Hamilton Township
add .5000 if (6-3) Chillicothe Zane Trace beats (8-1) Chillicothe Unioto
add .4500 if (3-6) Williamsport Westfall beats (2-7) Frankfort Adena
add .5500 if (6-3) Washington Court House Miami Trace beats (3-6) Washington Court House Washington
add .4500 if (2-7) Lancaster Fairfield Union beats (6-3) Baltimore Liberty Union
add .1000 if (4-5) Carroll Bloom-Carroll beats (7-2) Ashville Teays Valley
add .5000 if (6-3) Circleville beats (5-4) Amanda-Clearcreek

(6-3) SUNBURY BIG WALNUT 16.7308
add 1.1556 if (6-3) Sunbury Big Walnut beats (1-8) Columbus Franklin Heights
add .5556 if (4-5) Mansfield beats (6-3) Mansfield Madison
add .6061 if (1-8) Canal Winchester beats (5-4) Dublin Scioto
add .6061 if (3-6) Delaware Hayes beats (9-0) Lewis Center Olentangy
add .6061 if (4-5) Lewis Center Olentangy Orange beats (6-3) Worthington Kilbourne

(7-2) COLUMBUS ST. FRANCIS DESALES 16.6897
add 2.0495 if (7-2) Columbus St. Francis DeSales beats (4-3) Wheeling Linsly (WV)
add .5155 if (5-4) Dayton Chaminade-Julienne beats (9-0) Kettering Archbishop Alter
add .6186 if (4-5) New Albany beats (5-4) Mount Vernon
add .5670 if (5-4) Akron Buchtel beats (2-7) Akron Kenmore
add .3608 if (2-7) Warrensville Heights beats (3-5) Cleveland Heights Lutheran East
add .6186 if (1-7) Columbus St. Charles beats (0-9) Marion Harding
add .6186 if (4-5) Columbus Centennial beats (2-7) Columbus Whetstone
add .6186 if (2-7) Columbus Bishop Watterson beats (4-4) Cincinnati Winton Woods

(7-2) NEW PHILADELPHIA 16.4000
add 4.4000 if (7-2) New Philadelphia beats (7-2) Dover
add .5000 if (5-4) Millersburg West Holmes beats (4-5) Bellville Clear Fork
add .5000 if (1-8) Youngstown East beats (2-7) Ashtabula Edgewood
add .6000 if (3-6) Canal Fulton Northwest beats (2-7) Barberton
add .5000 if (4-5) Uhrichsville Claymont beats (8-1) Zanesville Maysville
add .0500 if (3-6) Marietta beats (4-5) Zanesville
add .5000 if (3-6) Cambridge beats (6-3) Byesville Meadowbrook

(7-2) THORNVILLE SHERIDAN 13.9000
add 2.8500 if (7-2) Thornville Sheridan beats (5-4) New Lexington
add .5000 if (3-6) Washington Court House Washington beats (6-3) Washington Court House Miami Trace
add .0500 if (1-8) Zanesville West Muskingum beats (0-9) McConnelsville Morgan
add .5500 if (4-5) Zanesville beats (3-6) Marietta
add .5500 if (4-5) Philo beats (9-0) Dresden Tri-Valley
add .1000 if (4-5) Crooksville beats (4-5) New Concord John Glenn

(6-3) CHILLICOTHE 13.1000
add 4.4000 if (6-3) Chillicothe beats (7-2) Wilmington
add .5500 if (5-4) Columbus Walnut Ridge beats (4-5) Columbus Independence
add .0500 if (6-3) Washington Court House Miami Trace beats (3-6) Washington Court House Washington
add .0500 if (0-9) Greenfield McClain beats (2-7) Hillsboro
add .5000 if (2-7) Lees Creek East Clinton beats (9-0) Clarksville Clinton-Massie

[doubleplay643]

I saw the same thing this morning RAIDER, looks like the top 6 will be determined by Friday night (hope Joe Eitel updates this Friday like he did week 9).

DeSales game on Saturday may determine 7&8 or 6,7 & 8, hard to say.

It would appear we would need Wellston or Waverly to win, plus Ironton, West Jeff, Logan and Burg to be a #3 seed. I have us being a #4 if Granville wins and Wellston or Waverly loses.

But good lord, I just think it will be easier to sit back and wait lol, way to many scenarios can change that around. It will be what it will be.

[loganlocos]

For Tri-Valley:

If New Philly beats Dover, Tri-Valley will host DeSales in week 11.

If Dover beats Philly, TV could host Chillicothe, New Philly, or Big Walnut (those 3 teams will be hundredths of points apart).
------------------------------

Athens can pass Jackson in harbin points if River Valley and Warren both win.

River Valley might win...can't imagine Warren beating Logan.

Do you have VC over Wellston... Could those points replace 1 of those other two and be enough? Wellston D4 and Northwest D5?

Logan will be without Lane Little (QB) and likely Bryce McBride (RB/LB, leading rusher, 2nd leading tackler) against Warren, FYI.

[teach1coach2]

A couple FYIs or warnings about DeSales harbin numbers.

DeSales current L2 divisor is 99, because 8 of their opponents so far are playing 10 game regular season schedules and 1 is playing 9. Their week 10 opponent is Linsly who has 8 games that count toward harbin L2 points (played a club team and play a WV game the week after week 10 in OH). When the OHSAA releases numbers, DeSales will likely be 16.4273 (8th) because OHSAA is using 99 as the divisor since DeSales has not yet played Linsly. Joe Eitel uses the divisor of 97 now, which makes his numbers more accurate and realistic (barring the cancellation of the game against Linsly). Joe has DeSales at 16.8384 (7th) which is more correct than OHSAA in my opinion.

DeSales will likely show up in 8th or 9th place early, early Saturday morning when Joe Eitel has all the Friday games in. Add 2.0495 since DeSales will beat Linsly (WV). That will tell you where they will finish and accurately show the teams playing in the #1-#8 game and the #2-#7 game.

[teach1coach2]

Region 9 L1 and L2 games that are not on Friday night.

Canada: St. Joan of Arc (D2) at Lorne Park on Wednesday. Dover beat Lorne Park and Dover’s harbin average would increase .60606 if Lorne Park wins. Dover could move into 2nd in the region by Thursday morning.

Granville at Licking Valley on Thurs. A win might jump Granville to #1 or #2 in region temporarily. You can watch the game online at http://www.cwcolumbus.com/newsroom/sports/tnl/
Click on TNL Live.

Saturday:
L1 Games for Region 9
DeSales at Linsly WV (D6 – with 4 wins). A win increases DeSales harbin average by 2.0495

L2 Games for Region 9
Hughes (D3) at Portsmouth. Jackson beat Portsmouth so a Portsmouth win increases Jackson’s harbin average .56122

Utica (D4) at Newark Catholic (D6). Granville beat both. Utica win increases harbin average by .4 and Newark Catholic win increases Granville’s average by .5

Buchtel at Kenmore (D3). DeSales beat Buchtel. Buchtel win increases average for DeSales by .56701

Warrensville Heights at Lutheran East (D7). DeSales beat Warrenville Heights. Warrensville win increases average for DeSales by .36082

So after all the Friday night games are in Joe Eitel dot com, you have to consider if the Saturday games move Jackson and Granville up……………..obviously DeSales is going to move up after their Saturday night win.

[Bring the Heat]

lorne park won 22 to 10 it looks like in a game played at noon yesterday.

[teach1coach2]

Lorne Park's win (L2 for Dover) yesterday pretty much assures Dover a 2nd place R9 finish if they beat New Philly and a 6th place finish if they lose to NP. If NP beats Dover they will move up to 6th. An NP loss puts them in 9th with a super slight chance of being 8th or 10th (Chillicothe, Big Walnut and NP will be hundredths of points apart if NP loses and Chilli and BW win).

Granville and Licking Valley tonight is big for Athens and Jackson. If Granville and Dover win, at most only 1 of those 2 (Athens, Jackson) will get a home game in week 11.

[YOU'RE TIGER BAIT]

dang, I thought I had it bad, great stuff.

[doubleplay643]

Lorne Park's win (L2 for Dover) yesterday pretty much assures Dover a 2nd place R9 finish if they beat New Philly and a 6th place finish if they lose to NP. If NP beats Dover they will move up to 6th. An NP loss puts them in 9th with a super slight chance of being 8th or 10th (Chillicothe, Big Walnut and NP will be hundredths of points apart if NP loses and Chilli and BW win).

Granville and Licking Valley tonight is big for Athens and Jackson. If Granville and Dover win, at most only 1 of those 2 (Athens, Jackson) will get a home game in week 11.

teach1coach2, the way I look at it (assuming a lot of other things with respect to L2's) is that for Jackson to avoid a 4 spot (Athens 5) Granville needs to lose tonight, which I believe will give Jackson some room at #3.

I am thinking Dover wins against New Philly, and I think HT may beat LE.

So that may mean a 1-2-3-4 of TV, Dover, Jackson, Athens...but good lord man it really is up in the air.

[doubleplay643]

Well Granville loses to Licking Valley tonight.

[teach1coach2]

Tri-Valley has #1 locked.

With Granville's loss to Licking Valley tonight, Jackson and Athens should have home games week 11. I still think Dover will beat New Philly and be #2. Jackson will likely be #3 and Athens #4. Athens can jump ahead of Jackson if 2 of the 3 occurs: Vinton County over Wellston, Warren Local over Logan, River Valley over Northwest.

With Logan Elm win, they would be #5 and Granville #6. Or flipped if Logan Elm loses.

If New Philly beats Dover, NP will be #7. Dover #6 and Jackson, Athens, Granville, and Logan Elm would bump up. DeSales would be #8.

If New Philly loses, DeSales is #7 and toss up for #8. Chillicothe, Big Walnut, and NP.

[OSU Buckeyes 5]

Athens should want Wellston to beat Vinton County. They get more L2 points if Wellston wins that game.

If the games end up the way I think they will, it should be very hard for Athens to pass Jackson.

[Ironman92]

Athens should want Wellston to beat Vinton County. They get more L2 points if Wellston wins that game.

If the games end up the way I think they will, it should be very hard for Athens to pass Jackson.

....wrong because Jackson would get those same points....VC winning gives Jackson nothing

[indianabuck]

I'd much rather see Granville or Logan Elm than DeSales if I were Athens. If Jackson is 2, they lose to DeSales.

[OSU Buckeyes 5]

Athens should want Wellston to beat Vinton County. They get more L2 points if Wellston wins that game.

If the games end up the way I think they will, it should be very hard for Athens to pass Jackson.

....wrong because Jackson would get those same points....VC winning gives Jackson nothing

Yeah, that's right. Thanks for the correction. It would give them a higher average to have Wellston win, but wouldn't help them pass Jackson.

I still don't really see Athens having enough to pass Jackson.

Here's my best guess...this has Dover beating New Philly, LE losing to HT, and Chillicothe beating Wilmington

#1 - Tri-Valley (10-0)- 28.8500
#2 - Dover (8-2)- 27.3292
#3 - Jackson (10-0) - 26.4857
#4 - Athens (10-0) - 25.7500
#5 - Granville (8-2) - 22.8500
#6 - Logan Elm (7-3) - 21.9500
#7 - DeSales (8-2) - 21.4737
#8 - Chillicothe (7-3) - 18.1000

[Ironman92]

Athens should want Wellston to beat Vinton County. They get more L2 points if Wellston wins that game.

If the games end up the way I think they will, it should be very hard for Athens to pass Jackson.

....wrong because Jackson would get those same points....VC winning gives Jackson nothing

Yeah, that's right. Thanks for the correction. It would give them a higher average to have Wellston win, but wouldn't help them pass Jackson.

I still don't really see Athens having enough to pass Jackson.

Here's my best guess...this has Dover beating New Philly, LE losing to HT, and Chillicothe beating Wilmington

#1 - Tri-Valley (10-0)- 28.8500
#2 - Dover (8-2)- 27.3292
#3 - Jackson (10-0) - 26.4857
#4 - Athens (10-0) - 25.7500
#5 - Granville (8-2) - 22.8500
#6 - Logan Elm (7-3) - 21.9500
#7 - DeSales (8-2) - 21.4737
#8 - Chillicothe (7-3) - 18.1000

Hoping for that