REGION 9 (UPDATED 10/26) 11 TEAMS LEFT

[bengals01]

Most likely a lock their last 3 games if they win them will give them a lot of 2nd level points.

Week 8: H vs #141 Sheridan (Thornville) (5-1, D3 R9) 81% W (15 pts)
Week 9: H vs #135 Maysville (Zanesville) (6-0, D4 R13) 80% W (14 pts)
Week 10: A vs #381 Philo (Duncan Falls) (3-3, D4 R13) 96% W (29 pts)

Projected 28.60 Harbin points (divisor 100), projected #1 seed

[bengals01]

Steubenville lost 25 23 so change for Athens

[teach1coach2]

TV is not a lock at #1 at 10-0, but likely would be. A 9-1 Granville would be the most likely to have more harbin points (slight chance of Jackson, LE or DeSales). It should be close enough that L2 games are big.

[kvnchambers]

i have max possible points as follows but no team will get max points
desales 32.74
jackson 31.72
logan elm 30.08
dover 30.05
granville 30.05
tri-valley29.85
athens 29.4

[teach1coach2]

Here is Drew's projected finish BEFORE week 7:
Region 9 Projections
1) Tri-Valley (Dresden) (10-0) 28.60
2) Logan Elm (Circleville) (9-1) 27.70
3) Jackson (10-0) 27.68
4) Athens (The Plains) (10-0) 25.45
5) St Francis De Sales (Columbus) (8-2) 23.58
6) Granville (8-2) 23.45
7) Dover (7-3) 21.83
8 ) New Philadelphia (7-3) 18.95


So basically, if the favorites win above is how it finishes.

He has DeSales losing to Hartley, Granville losing (I assume Licking Valley), Dover over New Philly, and I doubt his 1 loss projection for Logan Elm was for Liberty Union.

I was going to do a mathematic breakdown after week 8, but will probably do it after week 9 with all the big games that night (TV-Maysville, DeSales-Hartly, Jackson-Ironton)

[doubleplay643]

I don't see DeSales losing to Hartley (based on each of their games against St Charles). So a 9 win DeSales according to Pasteur is 26.41 (21.35-30.43). It may track a little higher because Hartley will bring some serious secondary points.

So if that happens DeSales and Athens may flip flop spots because a 10 win Athens will happen and he has projected them with 25.45 points.

A 10-0 TV team is projected at 28.60 (25.80-30.70). I do not think than any other team ranked right now assuming every one wins out can beat the 28.60. So a 1 seed is I think guaranteed to a 10-0 TV team.

Granville plays a Thursday game on 10/30 and DeSales plays a Saturday game 11/1 so we may not know for certain who is going where in week 11 until late Saturday.

But it sure is fun predicting all the scenarios lol.

[bengals01]

After Saterdats games


1 6-1 Granville Granville 16.4429
2 7-0 Jackson Jackson 15.8143
3 6-1 Circleville Logan Elm 14.7357
4 6-1 Columbus Columbus St Francis DeSales 14.5209
5 7-0 The Plains Athens 14.4929
6 7-0 Dresden Tri-Valley 12.9286
7 5-2 Dover Dover 12.7714
8 5-2 New Philadelphia New Philadelphia 10.9000
9 4-3 Millersburg West Holmes 10.0429
10 6-1 Thornville Sheridan 9.7786
11 4-3 Sunbury Big Walnut 9.1566

[93Bulldog]

Hartley will beat DeSales ... they are a team of destiny, you watch. it will probably be on a last second play too.

lol

[kvnchambers]

of course this region will never play out this way and way to many scenarios and big games eft with 3 weeks to go but this is the way i have it playing out.
jackson 26.36
trivallley 26.25
logan elm 25.5
esales 24.96
athens 24.15
granville 23.8
dover 22.93
west holmes 18.8

that means the top 5 would have less then 22 l2 points between 1st and 5th so that would basically mean anything could basically happen there.

[Raider6309]

Hartley will beat DeSales ... they are a team of destiny, you watch. it will probably be on a last second play too.

lol

We probably need Desales to win that. Make Desales and Tri valley the 2 and 3. We can be the 4 and let them beat each other up for week 12

[coyote26]

Drew Pasteur's site has been updated. Jackson is listed as having clinched a playoff spot.

[billcox]

As it stands the regional title will be decided in round 1. Athens @ Desales

[ji81grad]

Glad that's already decided Storm. I can save the time and expense of going to any games. The other teams should just cancel their games and focus on winter sports.

[billcox]

Typical cope out response from someone of your intellectual ability. It's called an opinion!!! I must've missed the portion of the SEOPS rules that states members aren't allowed to voice opinions.

[93Bulldog]

New projections for DIII, Region 9 ... and they certainly change from week to week ...

Region 9 Projections
1) Tri-Valley (Dresden) (10-0) 28.25
2) Jackson (10-0) 27.73
3) Granville (9-1) 27.45
4) Athens (The Plains) (10-0) 25.15
5) Logan Elm (Circleville) (8-2) 24.95
6) St Francis De Sales (Columbus) (8-2) 23.43
7) Dover (7-3) 23.15
8. New Philadelphia (7-3) 18.95

[doubleplay643]

New projections for DIII, Region 9 ... and they certainly change from week to week ...

Region 9 Projections
1) Tri-Valley (Dresden) (10-0) 28.25
2) Jackson (10-0) 27.73
3) Granville (9-1) 27.45
4) Athens (The Plains) (10-0) 25.15
5) Logan Elm (Circleville) (8-2) 24.95
6) St Francis De Sales (Columbus) (8-2) 23.43
7) Dover (7-3) 23.15
8. New Philadelphia (7-3) 18.95

DeSales not going to be 8-2, just do not think that will happen. Take 9-1 to the bank lol. Move them up hopefully to the 5 spot.

[93Bulldog]

93Bulldog's prediction

1. Tri-Valley (10-0)
2. Jackson (10-0)
3. Athens (10-0)
4. Granville(8-2)
5. DeSales (8-2)
6. Logan Elm (7-3)
7. Dover (7-3)
8. New Philly (7-3)

[Ironman92]

Jackson clinched a spot in the playoffs?

[doubleplay643]

Jackson clinched a spot in the playoffs?

Yes, control own destiny for a week 11 home game.

Not OHSAA official, per Pasteur website.

[93Bulldog]

I love playoff football and all the different projections. The bottom line is - NONE of us have a clue how it will pan out. Picking how all the seeds will go is about as challenging as winning a 10-team parlay on college football.

Case in point. Logan Elm could split versus Circleville and Hamilton Township, which puts them in the hunt for a top 4 seed and home playoff game. DeSales could beat Hartley, which changes everything. Not sure anybody expected Granville to finish 9-1, they could be right there at seasons end. Athens, Tri-Valley, Jackson most likely will be 10-0. And will Dover throw their name in the hat of they beat both Coshocton and New Philly?

I see a lot of teams circling chairs while the music plays, but only four get to sit down. (for a coveted home game)

Very interesting last three weeks to say the least.