Region 27

[MeyerSpread]

I'm not sure how all the scoring works. But looking at Joe Eitel, if I'm reading it correctly, Harvest Prep only makes it in if they win and if Rosecrans loses. Am I missing something. Not saying anything bad, I really don't know if I'm missing something.

If you want to try to figure it out more look on joe eitel and look at the numbers on the right. There is a section for max win out, min win out and max lose and min lose. As you can see for example Trimble is a 2 seed and playing a team with zero wins and will likely drop to 4.

[AllAboutTheU]

By the way I am looking at it is if FCA win, Bishop win, and Titans lose than ND will be out, FCA and Bishop both get in?

[MeyerSpread]

By the way I am looking at it is if FCA win, Bishop win, and Titans lose than ND will be out, FCA and Bishop both get in?

If this happens FCA and ND get in.

[redskinwitness]

Rosecrans needs Prep to win for the second level points and ND to lose and they likely slip in. If Caldwell were able to beat Shenandoah it would really help the bishops as well. The point totals for the last few will be close

[MeyerSpread]

Anything can happen... what stinks is we will have to wait until Saturday night around 10:30 because 3 of the most important games are Saturday

East vs Notre Dame
Harvest Prep vs Fairfield Christian
Southern vs Eastern

[EasternDspy]

Rosecrans needs Prep to win for the second level points and ND to lose and they likely slip in. If Caldwell were able to beat Shenandoah it would really help the bishops as well. The point totals for the last few will be close

Incorrect with a Rosecrans win and HP loss they pass HP.

[AllAboutTheU]

the way I saw the points is ND maxout loss was I think a 12.09 and if FCA won it was 12.19 and bishop was at a 12.2 or so. Wouldn't that put FCA and bishop in but nd out?

[MeyerSpread]

I may be wrong, I'm just going by drew pasteur's fantastic 50 but I think Bishop would need a lot of help from the teams they have beat and a lot of unlucky games for the rest 2nd level points to get in...

I think with Drew Pasteur's averages are highly weighted on assuming the favorites win for 1st and 2nd level points...

example: They only give FCA a 17% chance of winning vs Harvest Prep

They give Rosecrans a 1 percent chance to be a 7 seed and 12 percent of being a 8 seed.

with a loss PND has a 13 percent to be a 7 seed and 40 percent of being a 8 seed (totals 12 percent not getting in because they are 9 percent to be a 2 seed, 25 percent to be a 3 seed and 1 percent to be a 4 seed).

[redskinwitness]

Rosecrans needs Prep to win for the second level points and ND to lose and they likely slip in. If Caldwell were able to beat Shenandoah it would really help the bishops as well. The point totals for the last few will be close

Incorrect with a Rosecrans win and HP loss they pass HP.

If prep and rosecrans both win and FCA and ND both lose the winners will both be playing week 11 in all likelihood. Those "max lose/max win" totals have a lot of moving parts. It could end up either way.

[EasternDspy]

Rosecrans needs Prep to win for the second level points and ND to lose and they likely slip in. If Caldwell were able to beat Shenandoah it would really help the bishops as well. The point totals for the last few will be close

Incorrect with a Rosecrans win and HP loss they pass HP.

If prep and rosecrans both win and FCA and ND both lose the winners will both be playing week 11 in all likelihood. Those "max lose/max win" totals have a lot of moving parts. It could end up either way.

Pastuer has Notre Dame ahead of Rosecrans even with a loss

[Mailman]

See!!! It is confusing!!! Lol

[svac83]

I am making the following assumptions.
That 1-8 frontier is not going to beat 9-0 river, federal hocking 0-9 is not going to beat 7-2 trimble, meadowbrook 2-7, is not going to beat Cambridge 6-3, Bridgeport 1-8 is nt going to beat Cameron 8-0, fisher catholic 1-8 is not going to beat Whitehall yearling 7-2, valley 0-9 is not going to beat Minford 5-4, west muskingham 0-9 is not going to beat 4-5 morgan, Loudonville 1-8 is not going to beat Shelby 8-1, hardin nordan 3-6 is not going to beat riverside 6-3, Jefferson township 0-9 will not beat 5-3 miami valley Christian, Malvern 3-6 is not going to beat sandy valley 6-3, riverview 0-9 is not going to beat Coshocton 8-1, st wendelin is either going to lose or forfeit to 3-6 crestline, Manchester 1-8 is not going to beat hillcrest academy 7-2, Toronto 7-2 is going to beat Madonna 1-7, lucas 6-3 will beat Lakota 2-7, buckeye trail 5-4 will beat Monroe central 1-8, bishop Rosecrans 6-3 will beat cotton valley 3-6,
Teams minimums maximums
1. Waterford 14.6687 16.4330
2. Trimble 13.2535 14.1121
3. Shadyside 11.957 15.7280
4. Sciotoville 11.5303 15.9710
5. Southern 11.1874 13.6589
6. Danville 11.3000 14.0000
7. Notre dame 10.0242 15.6720
8. Bishop Rosecrans 9.4800 10.2340
9. Buckeye trail 8.3170 9.5920
10. Harvest prep 7.8551 10.888
11. Fairfield Christian academy 7.384 11.2830
I think Waterford beats Belpre this leaves Waterford at 16.433 and the number 1 seed.

sciotoville is the team that can be almost anywhere on this list. With a minimum 11.5303 is in no matter what. If they lose to notre dame the only team that they would for sure get second level points is from eastern over linsly wva. 11.937 would be average. They could pick up extra points if south Gallia, alexander, green, or symmes valley. But lot of those games very close. If sciotoville beats notre dame and they get no other second level points. 14.506 if eastern wins 14.901. I think this is will they will end up even though they could get additional level 2 points from south Gallia, alexander, symmes valley or green win sciotoville should be 2nd seed if they beat notre dame

shadyside should beat bishop Donahue, the teams bishop Donahue has beat are 6-42. This would put shadyside at 14.518. they also could earn extra points with a Caldwell win or a Bellaire win. Both I think are toss up games. If Caldwell wins and Bellaire loses 14.886 if Bellaire wins and Caldwell loses 14.992. if Caldwell and Bellaire both win 15.360.



Trimble has a minimum of 13.2535 with only 1 game that would change total that is alexander over meigs. Think meigs would be favorite but they have really fell off. If alexander wins their average would be 13.7589

southern if they lose to eastern and sciotoville beats notre dame both of which I give at least a 33% chance of happening southern would be at 11.187 if southern loses and notre dame wins they would be at 11.54. if southern beats eastern and sciotoville beats notre dame 12.95 if notre dame beats sciotoville will be 13.305

I think Danville beats Bradford this leaves them at 12.7 average they would still have east knox, Fredericktown, and Crooksville all who would be underdogs to gain points from. East knox and Fredericktown would each add .4 to their total a win by Crooksville would add .5 to total.

Buckeye trail will have a minimum of 8.31 if the beat Monroe central the only other points they could gain is from Caldwell and Barnesville wins would give them 9.31 I don’t see how any team would qualify with this number

Fairfield Christian academy only shot at making it in is they have to beat harvest prep. This would give them 10.07172 they could earn extra points if st. bernardelmwood palace would win and berne union if both win could go as high as 10.930…

Bishop Rosecrans will beat cotton valley this will give them a minimum of 9.48 the only other points they could reasonably get is from Caldwell and harvest prep. If both won you would get to 10.23 max.

Notre dame has a guaranteed minimum of 10.0242. if they lose to sciotoville they probably still earn 7.5 2nd level points from grove city Christian and eastern this would put them at 10.78 wins by Manchester, green, symmes valley, or Fayetteville would continue to make this number higher. If they beat sciotoville the could be at 14.667

Harvest prep has to beat Fairfield Christian to have any chance of making playoffs beating them would give them a minimum of 10.780 they could go as high as 11.23 if berne union and madisin plains would both win.

scenario 1 harvest prep and sciotoville win
1. waterford 16.433
2. shadyside 14.992
3. sciotoville 14.901
4. trimble 13.2535
5. danville 13.1
6. southern 12.95
7. notre dame 10.78
8. harvest prep 10.78

scenario 2 sciottoville wins and fairfield christian wins
1. waterford 16.433
2. shadyside 14.992
3. sciotoville 14.901
4. trimble 13.2535
5. danville 13.1
6. southern 12.95
7. notre dame 10.78
8. fairfield christian 10.07

scenario 3 notre dame and harvest prep win
1. waterford 16.433
2. shady side 14.992
3. notre dame 14.667
4. southern 13.305
5. trimble 13.2535
6. danville 13.1
7. sciotoville 11.932
8. harvest prep 10.78

i dont think there is a actual scenario that lets bishop rosecrans or buckeye trail in

[js7_22]

I am making the following assumptions.
That 1-8 frontier is not going to beat 9-0 river, federal hocking 0-9 is not going to beat 7-2 trimble, meadowbrook 2-7, is not going to beat Cambridge 6-3, Bridgeport 1-8 is nt going to beat Cameron 8-0, fisher catholic 1-8 is not going to beat Whitehall yearling 7-2, valley 0-9 is not going to beat Minford 5-4, west muskingham 0-9 is not going to beat 4-5 morgan, Loudonville 1-8 is not going to beat Shelby 8-1, hardin nordan 3-6 is not going to beat riverside 6-3, Jefferson township 0-9 will not beat 5-3 miami valley Christian, Malvern 3-6 is not going to beat sandy valley 6-3, riverview 0-9 is not

iI dont think there is a actual scenario that lets bishop rosecrans or buckeye trail in

I don't want to quote the entire thing so others don't have to scroll, but this is a great read and very close to what very well could happen. Thank you for this.

[Mailman]

That is awesome!!

[H2O4RD]

Wouldn't Harvest prep get points from the Berne Union vs Worthington Christian game regardless or did you calculate that into the minimum?

[svac83]

where the 2 schools are in different division 4.0 was added to the minimum they would earn a extra 0.5 if berne union wins

now that i have most of work done i can run any scenario you want in a pretty quick fashion.

[EasternDspy]

I am making the following assumptions.
That 1-8 frontier is not going to beat 9-0 river, federal hocking 0-9 is not going to beat 7-2 trimble, meadowbrook 2-7, is not going to beat Cambridge 6-3, Bridgeport 1-8 is nt going to beat Cameron 8-0, fisher catholic 1-8 is not going to beat Whitehall yearling 7-2, valley 0-9 is not going to beat Minford 5-4, west muskingham 0-9 is not going to beat 4-5 morgan, Loudonville 1-8 is not going to beat Shelby 8-1, hardin nordan 3-6 is not going to beat riverside 6-3, Jefferson township 0-9 will not beat 5-3 miami valley Christian, Malvern 3-6 is not going to beat sandy valley 6-3, riverview 0-9 is not going to beat Coshocton 8-1, st wendelin is either going to lose or forfeit to 3-6 crestline, Manchester 1-8 is not going to beat hillcrest academy 7-2, Toronto 7-2 is going to beat Madonna 1-7, lucas 6-3 will beat Lakota 2-7, buckeye trail 5-4 will beat Monroe central 1-8, bishop Rosecrans 6-3 will beat cotton valley 3-6,
Teams minimums maximums
1. Waterford 14.6687 16.4330
2. Trimble 13.2535 14.1121
3. Shadyside 11.957 15.7280
4. Sciotoville 11.5303 15.9710
5. Southern 11.1874 13.6589
6. Danville 11.3000 14.0000
7. Notre dame 10.0242 15.6720
8. Bishop Rosecrans 9.4800 10.2340
9. Buckeye trail 8.3170 9.5920
10. Harvest prep 7.8551 10.888
11. Fairfield Christian academy 7.384 11.2830
I think Waterford beats Belpre this leaves Waterford at 16.433 and the number 1 seed.

sciotoville is the team that can be almost anywhere on this list. With a minimum 11.5303 is in no matter what. If they lose to notre dame the only team that they would for sure get second level points is from eastern over linsly wva. 11.937 would be average. They could pick up extra points if south Gallia, alexander, green, or symmes valley. But lot of those games very close. If sciotoville beats notre dame and they get no other second level points. 14.506 if eastern wins 14.901. I think this is will they will end up even though they could get additional level 2 points from south Gallia, alexander, symmes valley or green win sciotoville should be 2nd seed if they beat notre dame

shadyside should beat bishop Donahue, the teams bishop Donahue has beat are 6-42. This would put shadyside at 14.518. they also could earn extra points with a Caldwell win or a Bellaire win. Both I think are toss up games. If Caldwell wins and Bellaire loses 14.886 if Bellaire wins and Caldwell loses 14.992. if Caldwell and Bellaire both win 15.360.



Trimble has a minimum of 13.2535 with only 1 game that would change total that is alexander over meigs. Think meigs would be favorite but they have really fell off. If alexander wins their average would be 13.7589

southern if they lose to eastern and sciotoville beats notre dame both of which I give at least a 33% chance of happening southern would be at 11.187 if southern loses and notre dame wins they would be at 11.54. if southern beats eastern and sciotoville beats notre dame 12.95 if notre dame beats sciotoville will be 13.305

I think Danville beats Bradford this leaves them at 12.7 average they would still have east knox, Fredericktown, and Crooksville all who would be underdogs to gain points from. East knox and Fredericktown would each add .4 to their total a win by Crooksville would add .5 to total.

Buckeye trail will have a minimum of 8.31 if the beat Monroe central the only other points they could gain is from Caldwell and Barnesville wins would give them 9.31 I don’t see how any team would qualify with this number

Fairfield Christian academy only shot at making it in is they have to beat harvest prep. This would give them 10.07172 they could earn extra points if st. bernardelmwood palace would win and berne union if both win could go as high as 10.930…

Bishop Rosecrans will beat cotton valley this will give them a minimum of 9.48 the only other points they could reasonably get is from Caldwell and harvest prep. If both won you would get to 10.23 max.

Notre dame has a guaranteed minimum of 10.0242. if they lose to sciotoville they probably still earn 7.5 2nd level points from grove city Christian and eastern this would put them at 10.78 wins by Manchester, green, symmes valley, or Fayetteville would continue to make this number higher. If they beat sciotoville the could be at 14.667

Harvest prep has to beat Fairfield Christian to have any chance of making playoffs beating them would give them a minimum of 10.780 they could go as high as 11.23 if berne union and madisin plains would both win.

scenario 1 harvest prep and sciotoville win
1. waterford 16.433
2. shadyside 14.992
3. sciotoville 14.901
4. trimble 13.2535
5. danville 13.1
6. southern 12.95
7. notre dame 10.78
8. harvest prep 10.78

scenario 2 sciottoville wins and fairfield christian wins
1. waterford 16.433
2. shadyside 14.992
3. sciotoville 14.901
4. trimble 13.2535
5. danville 13.1
6. southern 12.95
7. notre dame 10.78
8. fairfield christian 10.07

scenario 3 notre dame and harvest prep win
1. waterford 16.433
2. shady side 14.992
3. notre dame 14.667
4. southern 13.305
5. trimble 13.2535
6. danville 13.1
7. sciotoville 11.932
8. harvest prep 10.78

i dont think there is a actual scenario that lets bishop rosecrans or buckeye trail in

This is awesome can you do 23?

[svac83]

I will try to do 23 tommorow if I have time

[H2O4RD]

Nice work.

[ttomcat 80]

Think scenario 3 is right on.but the other 2 not to sure.Danville needs a lot of help from the under dogs to jump to 5.They get 10.5 level 1 and for sure 3.5 level 2 with Lucas.Crest line doesn't matter game doesn't can't for scoring already posted for their game.they probley need 2 of the other 3 to win.I would say probley eastknox.and fredricktown both need to win a crooksville win and one of the other two win il be close.Southern gets 14 level 1 and only 3.5 level 2. Max.I will go with Trimble 4 and Southern 5 that's with a ND lose.With scenario 1,2.Could be wrong ,rather play at home,but anything can happen.