Region 21

[INDIAN58]

What has Centerburg improved since last season? Tyler Stoyle, the centerburg QB last year was a senior. Pretty sure their running back last year, Austin Glasscock was a senior too.. Who do they have making plays this year?

You're correct Centerburg graduated both Stoyle & Glasscock. I would say lost Tyler's playmaking ability and intangibles but gained exceptional pure speed at the QB position.

RB by committee, improved Dline, still have an outstanding secondary, won't get hurt much downfield. When the playoffs come around Centerburg could make some noise.

[getright]

Really hoping to see a Centerburg vs. Moneoe Central matchup again this year!

[INDIAN58]

Really hoping to see a Centerburg vs. Moneoe Central matchup again this year!

I'm with you on that one. Could care less about venue would like to see this rematch happen as well. Good luck to MC the rest of the way

[getright]

Good luck to Centerburg as well!

[Crab's Brother]

7 weeks in the books and the picture continues to get clearer. Here is what I have going into week 8:


1. Valley 23.9 (9-1) or 19.9 (8-2)
2. Fredericktown 22.15
3. Grandview 16.43
4. Monroe Central 16.08
5. Centerburg 15.55
6. Nelsonville 15.3
7. Oak Hill 15.22
8. Ridgewood 14.8

9. Belpre 13.51
10. Coal Grove 13.05
11. Ready 11.05

Some Notes-
- I am confident that Fredericktown will finish 10-0 and that will be real close to their final point total. They will be #1 or #2 depending on the outcome of the Wheelersburg/Valley game. If Valley wins and finishes 9-1, they will pass the Freddies and finish #1.
- As long as Valley beats South Point and Minford they will finish no lower than the #2 spot. I believe only an 8-2 Grandview team could potentially pass an 8-2 Valley team.
- Grandview is the wildcard. The 16.43 number I have for the Bobcats has them beating Madison Plains and losing to West Jeff. Should Grandview lose both, I have them at 13.05 which would move Belpre up to #8 and them into a virtual tie with Coal Grove. Belpre and Coal Grove are huge Madison Plains and West Jeff fans.
- I think Monroe Central and Centerburg both look to be solidly into their spots. They could each host with a collapse from Grandview.
- Nelsonville and Oak Hill are going to be interesting. Their order of finishing, IMO, will come down to week 10 and the Northwest and River Valley game. That is kind of crazy, but I do think that will happen. So, I have it now with River Valley beating Northwest. Should the Mohawks win that game, I believe you would have to flip Nelsonville and Oak Hill.
- If Ridgewood wins out, they are in. I don’t see any of the 4 teams ahead of them losing, so the only way the Generals don’t finish #8 is the aforementioned Grandview collapse.

[Eaglepapaw]

7 weeks in the books and the picture continues to get clearer. Here is what I have going into week 8:


1. Valley 23.9 (9-1) or 19.9 (8-2)
2. Fredericktown 22.15
3. Grandview 16.43
4. Monroe Central 16.08
5. Centerburg 15.55
6. Nelsonville 15.3
7. Oak Hill 15.22
8. Ridgewood 14.8

9. Belpre 13.51
10. Coal Grove 13.05
11. Ready 11.05

Some Notes-
- I am confident that Fredericktown will finish 10-0 and that will be real close to their final point total. They will be #1 or #2 depending on the outcome of the Wheelersburg/Valley game. If Valley wins and finishes 9-1, they will pass the Freddies and finish #1.
- As long as Valley beats South Point and Minford they will finish no lower than the #2 spot. I believe only an 8-2 Grandview team could potentially pass an 8-2 Valley team.
- Grandview is the wildcard. The 16.43 number I have for the Bobcats has them beating Madison Plains and losing to West Jeff. Should Grandview lose both, I have them at 13.05 which would move Belpre up to #8 and them into a virtual tie with Coal Grove. Belpre and Coal Grove are huge Madison Plains and West Jeff fans.
- I think Monroe Central and Centerburg both look to be solidly into their spots. They could each host with a collapse from Grandview.
- Nelsonville and Oak Hill are going to be interesting. Their order of finishing, IMO, will come down to week 10 and the Northwest and River Valley game. That is kind of crazy, but I do think that will happen. So, I have it now with River Valley beating Northwest. Should the Mohawks win that game, I believe you would have to flip Nelsonville and Oak Hill.
- If Ridgewood wins out, they are in. I don’t see any of the 4 teams ahead of them losing, so the only way the Generals don’t finish #8 is the aforementioned Grandview collapse.

You seem to know a great deal about how this thing works Crab,are you really Joe Eitle's Bro? You just made me a real Mad.Plains amd W.Jeff fan but I also become a huge Alexander fan hoping they can knock off NY,But bottom line is Belpre has to continue to win to have any chance and I think they can.Thanks for all your great input.

[nutronron2012]

Drew Pasteur just updated. His numbers are a lot different. I like Crabs Brother numbers better

Region 21 Projections
1) Fredericktown (10-0) 22.05
2) Valley (Lucasville) (8-2) 19.40
3) Grandview Heights (Columbus) (7-3) 15.93
4) Oak Hill (8-2) 15.73
5) Centerburg (8-2) 15.50
6) Ridgewood (West Lafayette) (9-1) 15.30
7) Nelsonville-York (Nelsonville) (7-3) 15.20
8 )Monroe Central (Woodsfield) (8-2) 14.93

[Jason Vorhees]

Wow, talk about a tight region! Numbers 3-8 are separated by exactly one point.

[nutronron2012]

Jason Vorhees. You probably like the looks of Drews projection. It has Oak Hill hosting a playoff game

[Jason Vorhees]

If it's accurate and plays out that way, that would be wonderful for Oak Hill. Still, there's a lot of football left to be played and anything can happen.

[d-5]

Fredricktown is always a tough out come playoff time

[Crab's Brother]

I guess the only way to figure out how my projections and Drew's differ is to go team by team. If I had to guess, I would say the biggest difference between he and I on MC is with Magnolia. I have no clue how he handles out of state teams.

[selonmc]

I think for Drew Pasteur's projections on Monroe Central it has to do with their game against Magnolia (WV). I've emailed Drew before, a great guy by the way, and I can never understand exactly how he figures out of state opponents in his projections.

I know for his strength of schedule ratings and all of that he ignores out of state opponents which always hoses MC because Magnolia is usually a top team in WV.

So I know that Crab is predicting Magnolia's last 3 games in his projections, but I don't know if Drew does. His response to emails from previous years seems to indicate there is no real math behind it. Meaning since Magnolia is 2-4 his calcs are only estimating one more win for Magnolia where in reality they probably will win at least 2 of the 3.

I think that is a hole in Drew Pasteur's numbers.

[Green Beagle]

I think for Drew Pasteur's projections on Monroe Central it has to do with their game against Magnolia (WV). I've emailed Drew before, a great guy by the way, and I can never understand exactly how he figures out of state opponents in his projections.

I know for his strength of schedule ratings and all of that he ignores out of state opponents which always hoses MC because Magnolia is usually a top team in WV.

So I know that Crab is predicting Magnolia's last 3 games in his projections, but I don't know if Drew does. His response to emails from previous years seems to indicate there is no real math behind it. Meaning since Magnolia is 2-4 his calcs are only estimating one more win for Magnolia where in reality they probably will win at least 2 of the 3.

I think that is a hole in Drew Pasteur's numbers.

biggest problem with having WV teams on your schedule is that you will not get their last game credit since they are a week behind us. Is that correct? They play their last game the first week of our playoffs.

[nutronron2012]

I think for Drew Pasteur's projections on Monroe Central it has to do with their game against Magnolia (WV). I've emailed Drew before, a great guy by the way, and I can never understand exactly how he figures out of state opponents in his projections.

I know for his strength of schedule ratings and all of that he ignores out of state opponents which always hoses MC because Magnolia is usually a top team in WV.

So I know that Crab is predicting Magnolia's last 3 games in his projections, but I don't know if Drew does. His response to emails from previous years seems to indicate there is no real math behind it. Meaning since Magnolia is 2-4 his calcs are only estimating one more win for Magnolia where in reality they probably will win at least 2 of the 3.

I think that is a hole in Drew Pasteur's numbers.

biggest problem with having WV teams on your schedule is that you will not get their last game credit since they are a week behind us. Is that correct? They play their last game the first week of our playoffs.

That is correct.

[Crab's Brother]

I think for Drew Pasteur's projections on Monroe Central it has to do with their game against Magnolia (WV). I've emailed Drew before, a great guy by the way, and I can never understand exactly how he figures out of state opponents in his projections.

I know for his strength of schedule ratings and all of that he ignores out of state opponents which always hoses MC because Magnolia is usually a top team in WV.

So I know that Crab is predicting Magnolia's last 3 games in his projections, but I don't know if Drew does. His response to emails from previous years seems to indicate there is no real math behind it. Meaning since Magnolia is 2-4 his calcs are only estimating one more win for Magnolia where in reality they probably will win at least 2 of the 3.

I think that is a hole in Drew Pasteur's numbers.

That would make a lot of sense in explaining the difference in what I have for MC.

Like I have said before, in order for me to come up with my numbers, I have to go through every team's schedule and predict wins and losses for every team they have played and will play. So, there are bound to be mistakes. If anyone would like to see the records I have for all the teams on your team schedule so they can tell me where my numbers are off, please just ask and I will be glad to post them. #3-#8 in this region looks to be a very close so the defeated opponents is going to play a huge factor in who plays who.

[getright]

Crabs, can you post Monroe Centrals opponents schedule projections that you've put together?

[Crab's Brother]

Crabs, can you post Monroe Centrals opponents schedule projections that you've put together?

Not a problem.

I have:

Union Local (4-6) (Beating Bellaire) (4.5/18)

Shadyside ----------------------------

River (4-6) (Beating Shenandoah and Buckeye Trail) (4/15)

Caldwell ----------------------------

Fort Frye (7-3) (Beating Shenandoah and Rosecrans) (4/25.5)

Magnolia (5-4) (Winning out and week 10 not counting) (4.5/22.5)

Shenandoah (0-10) (4 1st level)

Barnsville (2-8) (Beating Conotton Valley) (4/7.5)

Frontier (7-3) (Beating Valley WV and River) (3.5/26)

Buckeye Trail (3-7) (Beating West Muskingum) (4/12.5)


So, at 8-2 I have MC with 32.5 1st level and 127 2nd level points. The Noles have a 99 divisor so I come up with a final average of 16.078.

So, if I have successfully predicted the approximately 150 games remaining that will affect this region, I have MC hosting Centerburg. :122245 :122245

[getright]

I like the looks of your predictions, hoping to have that rematch this year, only back in Woodsfield this time! :122245

[EasternDspy]

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