Div 3 Region 12 Rankings

[Ironman92]

I looked at some of the teams today in the region and if Athens wins all except NY and Jackson goes 10-0.....they could very easily have the exact same number of combined level 1 and 2 points....the divisor could very well be the factor in final rankings.

[93Bulldog]

What would happen if both Athens and Jackson go (10-0) Ironman92? I'm not a math wizard - I have no idea how computer points work ... lol ... I just know I would absolutly love to see a 4 seed Athens team host a 5 seed Jackson team ... Seeing as we got you guys in 1990 (Athens won the SEOAL title and made it to week 11 - the Ironmen came up short because of the game versus the 'Dogs at Rutter Field) ... Jackson got its revenge in 2003 and the scenerio was reversed ... its about that time for the Bulldogs to return the favor.

[Ironman92]

I have not looked at enough teams to give a better guess, Athens at 10-0 would be too far ahead in points to be a 4/5 matchup.....3/6....possibly

[bucks_09]

Athens will finish up 9-1 at the 4th or 5th spot Jackson will probably finish 8th 7th if they get lucky.

[Ironman92]

Athens ain't getting the 4th or 5th unless they beat Nelsonville.

I still have about 5 teams to look at...but I have them at #5 with my guesses WITH beating NY.....behind Jonathan Alder, Shawnee, Logan Elm and Thurgood Marshall.

Athens needs Canal Winchester to knock off Logan Elm.....and Amanda Clearcreek as well. Shawnee has 2 tough games remaining...but their first tough game they won 35-10....comparative scoring takes them to the #2 at the end.

[ironman02]

You sure are doing a lot of work, 92. I think I'm gonna hold off until at least after this week before I start doing projections. It seems like there are always a few surprises that throw everything out of whack.

From just taking a glance at things, I agree with everything you've said. The chances for home games in Week 11 for Athens and/or Jackson are very slim. I'm thinking Jackson will likely finish 5th or 6th at 10-0, and 8th or 9th at 9-1. If they don't run the table, we're gonna be very nervous on Friday and Saturday of Week 10.

[ironman02]

Some interesting info...

http://www.fantastic50.net/index.php?pr=Ohio_Region_12

Drew Pasteur is projecting Jackson to finish 8th with a 9-1 record and as high as 6th at 10-0. He has them as one of his "most likely to miss the playoffs at 9-1" teams with a 31% chance of being left out with one loss.

It looks like he thinks Athens could finish at the #4 spot with a 9-1 record and be as high as the #2 seed if they go 10-0. Wins over Alexander and/or NY would be HUGE for them.

It looks like this is how he thinks things will shake out when all is said and done...

1. Jonathan Alder (10-0)
2. Thurgood Marshall (9-1)
3. Springfield Shawnee (10-0)
4. Athens (9-1)
5. Logan Elm (9-1)
6. Kettering Alter (10-0)
7. Jackson (10-0)
8. Eaton (9-1)

Obviously things can, and probably will, change, but that's pretty crazy. Not a single 8-2 team, if his projections end up being accurate.

[indianabuck]

Some interesting info...

http://www.fantastic50.net/index.php?pr=Ohio_Region_12

Drew Pasteur is projecting Jackson to finish 8th with a 9-1 record and as high as 6th at 10-0. He has them as one of his "most likely to miss the playoffs at 9-1" teams with a 31% chance of being left out with one loss.

It looks like he thinks Athens could finish at the #4 spot with a 9-1 record and be as high as the #2 seed if they go 10-0. Wins over Alexander and/or NY would be HUGE for them.

It looks like this is how he thinks things will shake out when all is said and done...

1. Jonathan Alder (10-0)
2. Thurgood Marshall (9-1)
3. Springfield Shawnee (10-0)
4. Athens (9-1)
5. Logan Elm (9-1)
6. Kettering Alter (10-0)
7. Jackson (10-0)
8. Eaton (9-1)

Obviously things can, and probably will, change, but that's pretty crazy. Not a single 8-2 team, if his projections end up being accurate.

It looks like region 19 with all of those records. Yes a lot may change, but being 4 weeks outm it looks awefully interesting. It looks like Jackson is in and Athens for the first time will make the playoffs if they are 9-0 going into the NY game. That would be great for SE Ohio.

[Ironman92]

Unless I messed up significantly....Logan Elm would be slightly ahead of Athens if they lose to Amanda and Athens runs the table....Logan Elm beating Amanda put them up near Alder and Shawnee

[ironman02]

Pasteur has Logan Elm losing to Amanda, but he probably predicted something different for their L2 points. It's tough because just one game can change things entirely.

[Ironman92]

I don't know.....LE looked prett cut and dry on their predictable points.

[Ironman92]

Did some more research...did mess up Jackson and Athens a few points.

My Final predictions:

1. Alder
2. Shawnee
3. Logan Elm
4. Thurgood Marshall
5. Athens
6. Jackson
7. Eaton
8. Cincy Taft

***Indian Hill defeating Madeira will move them from 9th to 5th in my final standings and everyone from 5th-8th down a spot.

***Athens over NY would bump them up to 3rd.....only if Logan Elm loses to Amanda....then 4th.....everyone below down a spot.

***Jackson loses to Ironton and I believe they finish 9th or 10th.

***Dayton Carroll and Dayton Dunbar have some games they could upset to stir things up a bit....but I don't believe they can win them all.

[maniac66]

I think they have to be 10-0 to get in . at 9-1 they finish 9th I believe which is a load of crap.

Maybe but the question is who is to blame if they lose to Ironton go 9-1 and miss playoffs?

[Ironman92]

Blame schedule if you want but @ Ironton might end up the only playoff type game during the regular season.....if Jackson can't beat Ironton then they likely wouldn't fare well in the playoffs.

You couldn't compile a season schedule like Jackson has if you tried.

Vinton Co, Waverly, Chillicothe, Portsmouth, Logan and St Charles all might not surpass 2 wins.

[maniac66]

Blame schedule if you want but @ Ironton might end up the only playoff type game during the regular season.....if Jackson can't beat Ironton then they likely wouldn't fare well in the playoffs.

You couldn't compile a season schedule like Jackson has if you tried.

Vinton Co, Waverly, Chillicothe, Portsmouth, Logan and St Charles all might not surpass 2 wins.

Not what I meant Jackson won tonight they control their own destiny now congrads on the win.
But VC has been down and so has Waverly for awhile Portsmouth and the rest in the league so no control over that the SEOAL is no netter than the OVC right now sad but true.
As for the rest you drop Ironton to get wheelersburg who is a division lower and play wellston if correct who is far from great.
I hope Jackson does well in the playoffs and goes far you do have a good team from what I seen tonight.
But if they lost and went 9-1 and failed to make playoffs who do you blame?
That is all I wanted to know?

[Ironman92]

You want me to name a person.

Sorry I'm a supporter.

Waverly was 20-0 3 and 4 years ago.

VC is the only problem and they are gone. Adding Wheelersburg is a good addition...Athens is as well.

[danicalifornia]

You blame other school's past successes is the only thing I can think of. You can't predict Waverly falling as much as they have.

[ironman02]

Well, I have done a lot of number crunching the last couple days and this is what I have ended up with. Let me first say that these are only projections. I have had to make a ton of assumptions about several games that I really am not that educated on, so take these projections for what they're worth. Things could obviously end up very different from what I believe. Anyway, here's a breakdown of the contenders in Region 12.

Jonathan Alder - Projected 10-0

Alder has two games against Logan and Marion Harding that I think they'll win easily. Watterson is down, at least for them, so I see Alder winning that one too. If they end up 10-0, I think they're the #1 seed. If they lose to Watterson, then that could obviously change to a #2 or #3 most likely.

Springfield Shawnee - Projected 10-0

Shawnee has two easy games the next two weeks, which will cause them to drop slightly in the Week 8 and Week 9 rankings. However, they have a huge showdown with undefeated (to this point) Tipp City Tippecanoe in Week 10. Shawnee won that game 21-18 last year, so it could be a barnburner again. If they win out, they're the #2 seed (unless Alder loses). If they lose to Tippecanoe, they could fall considerably.

Logan Elm - Projected 10-0

Logan Elm has two difficult games left with Canal Winchester and Amanda-Clearcreek. I honestly think they'll win both of them, but they could also lose one or both. If they go 10-0, they're most likely the #3 seed unless Alder and/or Shawnee slip up. If they were to lose a game, or even two, they might not be getting a home game.

Thurgood Marshall - Projected 9-1

Thurgood Marshall plays a couple decent teams the next two weeks, but I think they'll win out. They'll be hoping for one of the Top 3 to lose to imrpove their seeding, but unless they get that wish, they'll probably have to settle for the #4 seed. It would be tough for them to jump Alder or Shawnee, but they could definitely overtake Logan Elm is the Braves drop a game.

Kettering Alter - Projected 10-0

Alter has tough games against Bishop Fenwick (6-1) and Dayton CJ (5-2). If they win those games, they stand to gain a ton of second level points. Even with all that help, I think they'll be hard pressed to earn a home game. They'll definitely need one, or more, of the teams above them to lose in order to play at home, in my opinion.

Athens - Projected 9-1

I'm projecting a loss to Nelsonville-York for the Bulldogs. With a 9-1 mark, I think they're the #5 or #6 seed, but depending on L2 points, they could fall down to #7 also. At 10-0, they'll probably be hosting in Week 11, especially since NY is most likely going to be 9-0 heading into the Week 10 showdown. Athens may be able to get as high as the #2 seed, I think.

Jackson - Projected 10-0

It might be wishful thinking to project Jackson at 10-0, especially with St. Charles coming to town, but I'm doing it anyway. At 10-0, Jackson is probably still #6 or #7 in the region, and on the road in Week 11. If Jackson loses a game, it needs to be against St. Charles or Chillicothe. I don't think they can afford to lose to GAHS since the Blue Devils will provide them with the most L2 points left on the schedule. If Jackson does go 9-1, losing to St. Charles or Chillicothe, they will probably stay as the #7 seed, but could fall lower. I think they're in at 9-1, though, as long as they beat Gallia Academy.

Cincinnati Taft - Projected 8-2

This really comes down to L2 points. I see Taft winning the rest of their games, but the secondary games are tough to predict. They could sneak in, or they could be just on the outside looking in.

Eaton - Projected 9-1

Eaton's schedule is a lot like Jackson's this season...not giving them much help at all. Their biggest problem is probably Taft. Unless Eaton gets Taft's opponent's games to go the right way, they could get left out at 9-1. They have a decent shot, but they're gonna be nervous after Week 10.

Cincinnati Indian Hill - Projected 8-2

The Week 7 loss to Madeira basically killed their shot at the playoffs. They can still get in, but they need teams like Jackson, Taft, and/or Eaton to lose...and then some other help, most likely.

New Richmond - Projected 8-2

Basically the same as Indian Hill. They're in need of a lot of help.

***I didn't really crunch the numbers for Springfield Kenton Ridge because I think they'll lose to Tippecanoe and Tecumseh. If they win one of those games, they could be in the picture as well. Same goes for Gallia Academy. If they beat Warren and Jackson, then they could have a shot as well, but at this time, I didn't project that.

Here's my best guess at the rankings after Week 10. These may differ from the work of others simply because we have to project the result of so many games, so again, take them for what they're worth (probably not much).

1. Jonathan Alder (10-0) - 29.7500
2. Springfield Shawnee (10-0) - 28.0000
3. Logan Elm (10-0) - 27.0000
4. Thurgood Marshall (9-1) - 23.7424
5. Kettering Alter - (10-0) - 23.4000
6. Athens (9-1) - 22.5828
7. Jackson (10-0) - 22.2722
8. Cincinnati Taft (8-2) - 20.6306

9. Eaton (9-1) - 19.3000
10. Indian Hill (8-2) - 18.3000
11. New Richmond (8-2) - 17.2500

[Ironman92]

I think we agree almost completely other than I think Chaminade Julienne is going to beat Kettering Alter....I think we even have the same teams 1-8....except for that outcome....which would bump up Eaton I think.

[Ironman92]

No...not beating Chaminade would be 37 points to leave them .4 ahead of Eaton....buy they must beat Bishop Fenwick or they aren't even close.