Division III, Region 12 Projections

[loganlocos]

Here are some different scenarios I've worked out for Division III, Region 12.

Area teams include Jackson, Gallipolis, and Washington Courthouse.

I'll use two scenarios depending on who wins the Jackson/GAHS game.


IF Jackson wins:
1. Springfield Shawnee - 9-1 - 24.9000 (Win Out)
2. Cinc. McNicholas - 8-2 - 23.3377 (Win Out)
3. Eaton - 10-0 - 23.2500 (Win Out)
4. Jackson - 9-1 - 22.1000 (Win Out)
5. Roger Bacon - 7-3 - 21.2500 (Lose to Alter)
6. Dunbar - 8-2 - 20.3626 (Win Out)
7. Wyoming - 9-1 - 20.2000 (Win Out)
8. Washington CH - 8-2 - 17.8000 (Win Out)
------------
9. N. Richmond - 8-2 - 17.0000 (IF they beat Oak Hill)
10. Gallipolis - 7-3 - 16.8000 (Lose to Jackson)

A few notes:

McNicholas and Eaton could be reversed based on how some 2nd level match-ups play out.
Dunbar has some questions about their win over Lousivile Male (KY) - could be a forfeit and move things around.
Wyoming/Dunbar could switch based on some 2nd level outcomes.


Now, same IF Gallipolis beats Jackson:
1. Springfield Shawnee - 9-1 - 24.9000 (Win Out)
2. Cinc. McNicholas - 8-2 - 23.3377 (Win Out)
3. Eaton - 10-0 - 23.2500 (Win Out)
4. Gallipolis - 8-2 - 21.3500 (Win Out)
5. Roger Bacon - 7-3 - 21.2500 (Lose to Alter)
6. Dunbar - 8-2 - 20.3626 (Win Out)
7. Wyoming - 9-1 - 20.2000 (Win Out)
8. Jackson - 8-2 - 18.0000 (Lose to GAHS)
------------
9. Washington CH - 8-2 - 17.8000
10. N. Richmond - 8-2 - 17.0000 (IF they beat Oak Hill)

A few notes:

McNicholas and Eaton could be reversed based on how some 2nd level match-ups play out.
Dunbar has some questions about their win over Lousivile Male (KY) - could be a forfeit and move things around.
Wyoming/Dunbar could switch based on some 2nd level outcomes.
Gallipolis/Roger Bacon could switch based on 2nd level outcomes.
Jackson/Washington CH could switch based on 2nd level outcomes.


Just the way I see it two weeks out.

[ironman02]

Thanks for doing the projections, Locos. Very interesting stuff.

I'm certainly not getting ahead of myself, as there's still plenty of football to be played, but hopefully the Ironmen can win out and host a first round game.

[pappy1]

Hope both SEOAL teams make the playoffs.

[ironman02]

Hope both SEOAL teams make the playoffs.

Normally, I would agree with that, but...well, you know.

[LetsGoPSU]

two weeks left...not pts based
1.Eaton
win out to 10-0
2.Cincinnati Archbishop McNicholas
@ Carroll,@ Badin
3.St Bernard Roger Bacon
@ Archbishop Alter
4.Dayton Dunbar
win out to 8-2
5.Springfield Shawnee
win out to 9-1
6.Jackson
@ Gallia Academy
7.Cincinnati Wyoming
win out to 9-1
8.Gallipolis Gallia Academy
Jackson
9.Dayton Oakwood
@ Bellbrook
10.Washington Court House
@ London
11.New Richmond
@ Oak Hill
12.Springfield Kenton Ridge
@ Tippecanoe
13.Greenfield McClain
@ Jonathan Alder,@ Hillsboro

[ironman02]

Here are the results for Week 9 and remaining schedules for the Region 12 playoff contenders.

Edit: Roger Bacon actually lost to Kettering Alter. Score was reported incorrectly by ONN. New Richmond lost to Oak Hill, 28-7, which most likely eliminated them from contention. Dunbar's loss to Thurgood Marshall will drop them, but I think they still have a chance. Looks like nine teams competing for eight spots. Also added in Springfield Kenton Ridge, since they are still alive mathematically.

Cincinnati Roger Bacon, 6-3

Week 9: Lost to Kettering Alter, 28-10
Remaining Schedule: at Purcell Marian (1-8)

Springfield Shawnee, 8-1

Week 9: Defeated Bellefontaine, 34-31
Remaining Schedule: at Dayton Stebbins (1-8)

Eaton, 9-0

Week 9: Defeated Valley View, 56-28
Remaining Schedule: Preble Shawnee (3-6)

Cincinnati McNicholas, 7-2

Week 9: Defeated Dayton Carroll, 38-7
Remaining Schedule: at Hamilton Badin (5-4)

Jackson, 8-1

Week 9: Defeated Chillicothe, 15-14
Remaining Schedule: at Gallia Academy (7-2)

Cincinnati Wyoming, 8-1

Week 9: Defeated Cincinnati Taylor, 42-13
Remaining Schedule: at Indian Hill (3-6)

Dayton Dunbar, 6-3

Week 9: Lost to Thurgood Marshall, 28-20
Remaining Schedule: at Meadowdale (1-8)

Washington Court House, 7-2

Week 9: Defeated London, 31-28
Remaining Schedule: Miami Trace (2-7)

Gallia Academy, 7-2

Week 9: Defeated Warren, 41-27
Remaining Schedule: Jackson (8-1)

Springfield Kenton Ridge, 6-3

Week 9: Defeated Dayton Stebbins, 56-26
Remaining Schedule: at Tipp City Tippecanoe (8-1)

[ironman02]

Here are the current standings in Region 12, as of 10/23.

1. Springfield Shawnee.........8-1 - 22.3500 - (Clinched Home Game)
2. Cincinnati Roger Bacon.....6-3 - 20.0056 - (Clinched Playoff Spot)
3. Cincinnati McNicholas.......7-2 - 19.7608 - (Clinched Playoff Spot)
4. Eaton............................9-0 - 19.6833 - (Clinched Playoff Spot)
5. Cincinnati Wyoming..........8-1 - 17.0611 - (Clinched Playoff Spot)
6. Jackson.........................8-1 - 16.9500 - (Clinched Playoff Spot)
7. Dayton Dunbar................6-3 - 15.7944 - (Still alive, but does not control own destiny)
8. Gallia Academy................7-2 - 15.6500 - (Control Own Destiny)
9. Washington Court House.. 7-2 - 14.8167 - (Still alive, but does not control own destiny)
10. Dayton Oakwood............5-4 - 12.2611 - (Mathematically Eliminated)
11. New Richmond................6-3 - 11.7722 - (Mathematically Eliminated)
12. Springfield Kenton Ridge...6-3 - 10.4222 - (Still alive, but does not control own destiny)

It appears that Jackson and Gallia Academy (and also Kenton Ridge) have the potential to be the big movers this week. Most of the region will be playing weaker opponents, while the Ironmen and Blue Devils will be playing each other with a load of computer points on the line. I haven't done the numbers, but Jackson definitely has a shot at a home playoff game, and GAHS might as well, but it's an even bigger longshot than Jackson. I'm going to work on some projections later this week and make a prediction for how things will play out now that we have seen how Week 9 has played out.

[pappy1]

Whats the news on the possible forfeit by Dayton Dunbar?

[zebra77]

No disrespect to the Ironmen but would love to see both them and GA get in the playoffs.

That would put 9 or 10 teams from the southeast corner of the state in the playoffs, pretty good showing if you ask me.

Or should I phrase that RIVER teams?

[friday_nite_fan]

I don't see Kenton Ridge beating Tippecanoe. The Red Devils only lost by 3 to Springfield Shawnee who is the leading in Region 12. Looks like 3 teams will be playing for only 2 spots Friday night.

[loganlocos]

I'll be running some projections this afternoon.

[pappy1]

I believe GA can slip in with a loss to Jackson if we get some help from our friends. You gotta love the Harbin system!

Sometime I need to sit down with Locos or ironman02 and see how they do their projections. It's all Greek to me!

Unless the afore to mentioned forfeit by Dayton Dunbar happens, I don't think it will happen.

That was only briefly mention so I doubt that it will happen.

[loganlocos]

Here are my projections with one week left:

Jackson Beats Gallipolis:

1. Shawnee, 9-1, 24.4500
2. Cinc. McNicholas, 8-2, 23.8989
3. Eaton, 10-0, 22.7000
4. Roger Bacon, 7-3, 22.2500
5. Jackson, 9-1, 22.1500
6. Wyoming, 9-1, 19.7500
7. Dunbar, 7-3, 18.8100
8. Washington Courthouse, 8-2, 17.7500
-----------
Gallipolis, 7-3, 16.2000

NOTES:
Jackson needs Waverly to beat Northwest, that would lock up a home game for them if they beat Gallipolis. Without it, they will need some help to host, but it is not out of the question.

If Gallipolis beats Jackson:
1. Shawnee, 9-1, 24.4500
2. Cinc. McNicholas, 8-2, 23.8989
3. Eaton, 10-0, 22.7000
4. Roger Bacon, 7-3, 22.2500
5. Gallipolis, 8-2, 20.7500
6. Wyoming, 9-1, 19.7500
7. Dunbar, 7-3, 18.8100
8. Jackson, 8-2, 18.0500
------------------------------
9. Washington Courthouse, 8-2, 17.7500

Notes: I don't think GAHS can host barring a major upset in the top 4. Jackson could get the 7 seed again with help from Waverly.

[ironman02]

Thanks for posting those projections, Locos. I still might sit down and do some calculating of my own just to see the different scenarios that may come into play, but I appreciate you taking the time to break it down for us. The Waverly-Northwest game should be very interesting, and I think the Ironmen may get the help they need from the Tigers in that one. Most importantly, though, Jackson MUST win at Gallia Academy to even have a shot of playing at home in Week 11. The Red & White need to take care of business in Gallipolis on Friday.

[96stroker]

Logan locos what about a Vinton county win over wellston would that be a win and enough for jackson to finish 4th with win over gallipolis

[kvnchambers]

here were the playoff scenarios as i scene them. a couple of teals may be a little off due to some of their points coming from Kentucky and Ontario team.

if Jackson beats Gallipolis and that is really only super close game among contenders:

1. Shawnee 24.95
2. McNicholas 23.847
3. Eaton 22.75
4. Jackson 22.05
5. Roger Bacon 21.65
6. Wyoming 19.45
7. Dunbar 18.19
8. Washington C.H. 17.70
kenton ridge 16.79 with huge upset of tippie canoe that is the only thing that makes them relative and Gallia Academy 16.25. Gallia Academy can still make it in with loss.


if gallipolis beats jackson

1. shawnee 24.95
2 Mcnicholis 23.847
3. eaton 22.75
4. roger bacon 21.65
5. Gallia Academy 20.75
6. wyoming 19.45
7. dunbar 18.19
8. jackson 18.0
washington court house 17.0 and kenton ridge 16.79

kenton ridge no shot to make playoffs unless washington court house loses 2-7 miami trace and gallipolis loses to jackson or washington court house loses and dunbar loses to 1-8 meadowdale then all they have to do is beat 8-1 tippie canoe. so for all practical purposes eliminated.

washington c.h. can get in with a win over 2-8 miami trace and Adena win over 0-9 huntington. with a dunbar win and a loss by either 6-3 taft to 1-8 hughes center or a 7-2 male (ky) loss to 4-5 dupont memorial and noother team that dunbar beat winning. none of those teams would be favored to win.

or

a Gallia Academy loss to jackson and at least one of the following teams losing Athens, Hillsboro, Wellston, Logan, or Portsmouth all but wellston will be underdogs or pick-em games.

Gallia academy can get in even if loss to Jackson and any of the following:
a Wyoming loss to 3-6 indian hill and a loss by 4-5 edgewood to 7-2 ross and a 0-9 norwood loss to 7-2 mount healthy.

or

a dunbar win and a athens, hillsboro, wellston, logan and portsmouth all winning. if male (ky) or taft loses only 4 of 5 above teams would have to win if both male (ky) and taft lose only 2 out of 5 would have to win.

or

a washington c.h. loss and just one of athens, hillsboro, wellston, logan or portsmouth win.

or a washington court house win and athens, hillsboro, wellston, logan and portsmouth all win.


if gallia got in through wyoming scenario dunbar would be eliminated team.

or at least that is the way my math worked out. anybody else get anything different. i only wasted about 3 hours of my sunday morning on that i guess i need something better to do on my day off.

wrestling will start soon and my day off will be spent in a gym can't wait.

[kvnchambers]

oh and one more thing gallipolis could host if they beat jackson and all those other teams win in the scenario, athens, logan, portsmouth, portsmouth and hillsboro even without an upset in top 4.

[loganlocos]

Alright, I had a little more time today after a BUSY weekend.

Here are my updated projections with possible point totals:

1. Shawnee - 9-1 - 24.95 00
Shawnee is guaranteed 2nd level points from Greenon/Northwestern winner, Kenton Ridge/Tippecanoe winner, Tecumsah/Bellfontaine winner) - Projecting wins by Urbana

2. Cincinnati McNicholas - 8-2 - 23.8989
Guaranteed 2nd level points from Roger Bacon/Purcell winner - Projecting wins by N. Richmond, Medway Canada

3. Eaton - 10-0 - 22.7500 (23.3000 IF Talawanda beats Northwest)
Guaranteed points from VView/Brookville Winner, Oakwood/Franklin winner, Lemon/Bellbrook winner - Projecting wins by Greenon (Talawanda/Northwest is a toss-up for me)

4./5. Roger Bacon - 7-3 - 22.2500 (21.6500 if Campbell County KY Loses)
Guaranteed points from No One - Projecting wins from Mt. Healthy, Campbell County, and Western Hills)

4./5. Jackson - 9-1 - 22.1500 (22.6000 if Waverly OR VC wins; 23.0500 if Waverly AND VC win)
Guaranteed points from Marietta/Warren winner, Logan/Chillicothe, Ironton/Portsmouth - Possible points from Waverly and Vinton County

6. Wyoming - 9-1 - 19.7500
Guaranteed points from Reading/Deer Park, Mariemont/Madeira, Finneytown/Taylor

7. Dayton Dunbar - 7-3 - 18.1954 (18.8510 with a Whetstone win in week 10)
Projecting wins by Male and Taft; I see Whetstone and Belmont as possible winners

8. Washington Courthouse - 8-2 - 17.7500
Guaranteed wins by Logan Elm/Cville, Hillsboro/McClain, London/Mad Plains - Projecting an Adena win

9. Gallia Academy - 7-3 - 16.7500
Guaranteed wins by Warren/Marietta - Projecting wins by Wellston (Picking Hillsboro to lose)



Now, with a Gallia Academy win, they would have the following:

5. Gallia Academy - 8-2 - 21.3000 (20.8000 if Logan and Hillsboro both lose; 21.8000 if Logan/Hillsboro both win)
Guaranteed wins from Warren/Marietta - Projecting wins by Wellston, and either Logan/Hillsboro

and with a loss to GAHS, Jackson would be at:

7./8. Jackson - 8-2 - 18.05 (18.50 will Waverly OR VC win; 18.95 with Waverly AND VC wins)

[ironman02]

Very nice breakdown, LoganLocos. Thanks!

[LetsGoPSU]

week 10 not pts based
1.Eaton
2.Cincinnati Archbishop McNicholas
3.St Bernard Roger Bacon
4.Dayton Dunbar
5.Springfield Shawnee
6.Jackson
7.Cincinnati Wyoming
8.Gallipolis Gallia Academy
9.Washington Court House
10.Springfield Kenton Ridge
BIG GAMES WEEK 10
McNicholas @ Badin
Jackson @ Gallia Academy
Kenton Ridge @ Tippecanoe