Interesting Post About SEC and Big10 Scheduling
Posted: Mon Aug 18, 2008 12:03 am
This is not my work:
"In the last decade (1998-2007), non-conference games outside of the Southeast, SEC teams are 10-24 (0.294) against all opponents, "decent" or not. The 10 wins come against Hawaii, Indiana (x2), SMU, Arizona, Arizona State, BYU, Notre Dame, Syracuse, and Texas -- four of those ten teams were good enough to go to bowls in the years when SEC teams beat them.
Note that this boils down to about 0.08 wins per SEC team per year, out of 0.28 away games per SEC team per year -- the average SEC teams plays a road non-conference game outside the Southeast every 3.5 years -- and wins one road non-conference game outside the Southeast every 12 years(!), and one road non-conference game outside the Southeast against a bowl-bound team every 30 years(!).
Note also that some SEC teams (Georgia and Florida) do not have a single non-conference game outside the southeast in the entire decade, while South Carolina has only one, and only one team has more than 4 (Mississippi State with 5).
Alabama: 1-3
Hawaii (L), 2003; Oklahoma (L), 2002; Hawaii (W*) 2002; UCLA (L) 2000
Arkansas: 1-1
USC (L), 2005; Texas (W*) 2003
Auburn: 0-2
USC (L) 2002; Syracuse (L) 2001
Florida: 0-0
Georgia: 0-0
Kentucky: 2-2
Indiana (L) 2005; Indiana (W) 2003; Indiana (L) 2001; Indiana (W) 1999
Louisiana State: 2-2
Arizona State (W*) 2005; Arizona (W) 2003; Virginia Tech (L) 2002; Notre Dame (L) 1998
Mississippi: 1-3
Missouri (L) 2006; Wyoming (L) 2004; Texas Tech (L) 2002; SMU (W) 1998
Mississippi State: 1-4
West Virginia (L) 2007; Houston (L) 2003; Oregon (L) 2002; BYU (W) 2000; Oklahoma State (L) 1998
South Carolina: 0-1
Virginia (L) 2002;
Tennessee: 2-2
Cailfornia (L) 2007; Notre Dame (L) 2005; Notre Dame (W) 2001; Syracuse (W*) 1998
Vanderbilt: 0-4
Michigan (L) 2006; Navy (L) 2004; TCU (L) 2003; TCU (L) 1998
For comparison's sake, over the same time span, Big Ten teams are 38-34 (0.528) in non-conference games played outside the Midwest. The Big Ten has more out-of-area wins than the SEC has out-of-area games, despite having one less member. (If we scaled the record by 12/11 to account for that, 38-34 becomes 41-37.)
That's 0.35 wins per Big Ten team per year over the decade, and 0.65 games outside the midwest per Big Ten team per year. The average Big Ten team plays outside the midwest more than twice as often (two games per three years) as the average SEC team plays outside the southeast. The Big Ten wins twice as large a percentage of their games -- which yields four times the winning rate (one win per 3 years per team on average, instead of one per 12 years).
Note also that only one Big Ten team (Michigan State with 3) played fewer than 4 games outside the Midwest over the decade. Illinois played 8, Indiana 9, Minnesota 7, Northwestern 13, Ohio State 6, and Wisconsin 9. All by themselves (Texas, Arizona, West Virginia, Washington, N.C. State) Ohio State pretty much matches the entire SEC's five most impressive non-conference out-of-area wins.
Illinois: 3-5
Syracuse (W) 2007; Rutgers (L) 2006; California (L) 2005; UCLA (L) 2003; Southern Miss (L) 2002; San Diego State (W) 2000; Louisville (W*) 1999; Washington State (L) 1998 (note: I didn't count Missouri games played in St. Louis, which is a neutral site in between Illinois and Missouri).
Indiana: 1-8
Oregon (W) 2004; Kentucky (L) 2004; Connecticut (L) 2003; Washington (L) 2003; Utah (L) 2002; Kentucky (L) 2002; N.C. State (L) 2001; Kentucky (L) 2000; Kentucky (L) 1998;
Iowa: 1-3
Syracuse (W) 2006; Arizona State (L) 2004; Nebraska (L) 2000; Arizona (L) 1998;
Michigan: 1-3
Oregon (L) 2003; Washington (L) 2001; UCLA (L) 2000; Syracuse (W*) 1999;
Michigan State: 1-2
Rutgers (L) 2004; Missouri (W) 2000; Oregon (L) 1998
Minnesota: 5-2
Florida Atlantic (L) 2007; California (L) 2006; Tulsa (W*) 2005; Colorado State (W) 2004; Louisiana-Lafayette (W) 2002; Baylor (W) 2000; Houston (W) 1998
Northwestern: 8-5
Nevada (L) 2006; Arizona State (L) 2005; TCU (L) 2004; Kansas (W*) 2003; Duke (W) 2003; Air Force (L) 2002; Navy (W) 2002; UNLV (W) 2001; Duke (W) 2001; TCU (L) 2000; Duke (W) 1999; Rice (W) 1998; Hawaii (W) 1998
Ohio State: 5-1
Washington (W) 2007; Texas (W*) 2006; N.C. State (W) 2004; UCLA (L) 2001; Arizona (W) 2000; West Virginia (W*) 1998
Penn State: 2-3
Temple (W) 2007; Boston College (L) 2005; Nebraska (L) 2003; Virginia (L) 2001; Miami-Florida (W*) 1999
Purdue: 3-1
Hawaii (L) 2006; Arizona (W) 2005; Wake Forest (W) 2003; Central Florida (W) 1999;
Wisconsin: 8-1
UNLV (W) 2007; North Carolina (W) 2005; Hawaii (W) 2005; Arizona (W) 2004; West Virginia (W*) 2003; UNLV (W) 2002; Oregon (L) 2001; Hawaii (W) 2000; San Diego State (W*) 1998;
Anyway, to those who made it this far: My theory as to why SEC teams don't play outside the Southeast is: 0.294. "
"In the last decade (1998-2007), non-conference games outside of the Southeast, SEC teams are 10-24 (0.294) against all opponents, "decent" or not. The 10 wins come against Hawaii, Indiana (x2), SMU, Arizona, Arizona State, BYU, Notre Dame, Syracuse, and Texas -- four of those ten teams were good enough to go to bowls in the years when SEC teams beat them.
Note that this boils down to about 0.08 wins per SEC team per year, out of 0.28 away games per SEC team per year -- the average SEC teams plays a road non-conference game outside the Southeast every 3.5 years -- and wins one road non-conference game outside the Southeast every 12 years(!), and one road non-conference game outside the Southeast against a bowl-bound team every 30 years(!).
Note also that some SEC teams (Georgia and Florida) do not have a single non-conference game outside the southeast in the entire decade, while South Carolina has only one, and only one team has more than 4 (Mississippi State with 5).
Alabama: 1-3
Hawaii (L), 2003; Oklahoma (L), 2002; Hawaii (W*) 2002; UCLA (L) 2000
Arkansas: 1-1
USC (L), 2005; Texas (W*) 2003
Auburn: 0-2
USC (L) 2002; Syracuse (L) 2001
Florida: 0-0
Georgia: 0-0
Kentucky: 2-2
Indiana (L) 2005; Indiana (W) 2003; Indiana (L) 2001; Indiana (W) 1999
Louisiana State: 2-2
Arizona State (W*) 2005; Arizona (W) 2003; Virginia Tech (L) 2002; Notre Dame (L) 1998
Mississippi: 1-3
Missouri (L) 2006; Wyoming (L) 2004; Texas Tech (L) 2002; SMU (W) 1998
Mississippi State: 1-4
West Virginia (L) 2007; Houston (L) 2003; Oregon (L) 2002; BYU (W) 2000; Oklahoma State (L) 1998
South Carolina: 0-1
Virginia (L) 2002;
Tennessee: 2-2
Cailfornia (L) 2007; Notre Dame (L) 2005; Notre Dame (W) 2001; Syracuse (W*) 1998
Vanderbilt: 0-4
Michigan (L) 2006; Navy (L) 2004; TCU (L) 2003; TCU (L) 1998
For comparison's sake, over the same time span, Big Ten teams are 38-34 (0.528) in non-conference games played outside the Midwest. The Big Ten has more out-of-area wins than the SEC has out-of-area games, despite having one less member. (If we scaled the record by 12/11 to account for that, 38-34 becomes 41-37.)
That's 0.35 wins per Big Ten team per year over the decade, and 0.65 games outside the midwest per Big Ten team per year. The average Big Ten team plays outside the midwest more than twice as often (two games per three years) as the average SEC team plays outside the southeast. The Big Ten wins twice as large a percentage of their games -- which yields four times the winning rate (one win per 3 years per team on average, instead of one per 12 years).
Note also that only one Big Ten team (Michigan State with 3) played fewer than 4 games outside the Midwest over the decade. Illinois played 8, Indiana 9, Minnesota 7, Northwestern 13, Ohio State 6, and Wisconsin 9. All by themselves (Texas, Arizona, West Virginia, Washington, N.C. State) Ohio State pretty much matches the entire SEC's five most impressive non-conference out-of-area wins.
Illinois: 3-5
Syracuse (W) 2007; Rutgers (L) 2006; California (L) 2005; UCLA (L) 2003; Southern Miss (L) 2002; San Diego State (W) 2000; Louisville (W*) 1999; Washington State (L) 1998 (note: I didn't count Missouri games played in St. Louis, which is a neutral site in between Illinois and Missouri).
Indiana: 1-8
Oregon (W) 2004; Kentucky (L) 2004; Connecticut (L) 2003; Washington (L) 2003; Utah (L) 2002; Kentucky (L) 2002; N.C. State (L) 2001; Kentucky (L) 2000; Kentucky (L) 1998;
Iowa: 1-3
Syracuse (W) 2006; Arizona State (L) 2004; Nebraska (L) 2000; Arizona (L) 1998;
Michigan: 1-3
Oregon (L) 2003; Washington (L) 2001; UCLA (L) 2000; Syracuse (W*) 1999;
Michigan State: 1-2
Rutgers (L) 2004; Missouri (W) 2000; Oregon (L) 1998
Minnesota: 5-2
Florida Atlantic (L) 2007; California (L) 2006; Tulsa (W*) 2005; Colorado State (W) 2004; Louisiana-Lafayette (W) 2002; Baylor (W) 2000; Houston (W) 1998
Northwestern: 8-5
Nevada (L) 2006; Arizona State (L) 2005; TCU (L) 2004; Kansas (W*) 2003; Duke (W) 2003; Air Force (L) 2002; Navy (W) 2002; UNLV (W) 2001; Duke (W) 2001; TCU (L) 2000; Duke (W) 1999; Rice (W) 1998; Hawaii (W) 1998
Ohio State: 5-1
Washington (W) 2007; Texas (W*) 2006; N.C. State (W) 2004; UCLA (L) 2001; Arizona (W) 2000; West Virginia (W*) 1998
Penn State: 2-3
Temple (W) 2007; Boston College (L) 2005; Nebraska (L) 2003; Virginia (L) 2001; Miami-Florida (W*) 1999
Purdue: 3-1
Hawaii (L) 2006; Arizona (W) 2005; Wake Forest (W) 2003; Central Florida (W) 1999;
Wisconsin: 8-1
UNLV (W) 2007; North Carolina (W) 2005; Hawaii (W) 2005; Arizona (W) 2004; West Virginia (W*) 2003; UNLV (W) 2002; Oregon (L) 2001; Hawaii (W) 2000; San Diego State (W*) 1998;
Anyway, to those who made it this far: My theory as to why SEC teams don't play outside the Southeast is: 0.294. "