SoutheasternOhioPreps.com

sure hate it that the rain will miss Ironton, we need the water.........

I wouldn't go as far as to say rain will miss you for sure. You are fairly close to the watch area. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means that conditions are favorible for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.

it may or may not happen. but conditions are there. we will have to see if anything starts to get organized in Central/NW Ohio.

As hot as it is..and with as moisture laying on the ground..and it being this early in May, I'd be really surprised if we don't get a big thunderstorm. Watch the maple leaves..it's all in the leaves

Strong storms extending from Duncan Falls to Reedsville. other storms are trying to develop between Logan and Jackson but having a hard time of it.

The key area to watch is Northern Ohio. if the storms around Mansfield and Findlay organize into an MCS bow shape line, momentum will take them SSE down through Southern Ohio.

If they don't organize. the severe threat will be lower and very isolated SW of Lancaster and Athens.

Kantucky, believe it or not. a warm boundry layer can limit severe thunderstorm chances unless there is decent wind shear and a frontal boundry to clash with.

Right now there is a warm front over SE Ohio. even with the heat and humidity at the surface. storms are having a hard time developing because there is little shear and no cooler air clashing with warm air in the upper levels..

and

all it takes is one very thin dry patch of air anywhere in the upper levels to prevent storm development. no matter how humid it is at the surface...

no precipitation yet.......

looks like we pretty much dodged a bullet. The best dynamics are up around Pittsburgh this evening.