Division 5 Region 19 in 2010

[I drain 3's]

Caldwell didn't exactly play their greatest game against Monroe Central. Some of that is due to what Central did, and some of it was Caldwell's own fault. Watching the second half of Caldwell/Barnesville and then watching them against Central was like night and day. They weren't ready to play. You could just tell after the big return on the kickoff and then when Central scored that some of the players just gave up, at least that's what it looked liked to me. They didn't have the fight in them that they did against Barnesville.

Fort Frye and Caldwell currently sit 6th and 7th in the rankings. There are 7 teams with a 3-1 or better record below them. If Fort Frye loses to Monroe Central, which I believe they will, then the Caldwell game is a must win for them in order to make it in the playoffs, IMO. They just aren't getting the points needed from teams like Green, River Valley, and Waterford to lose another game and still make it in.

If Caldwell wins out, I think they are in without a doubt, how high i'm not sure of though. A lot of it depends on Newcomerstown and Barnesville. I guess it's possible that Caldwell could lose to Fort Frye and still make it in, but i'd have to think that would be a long shot.

[I drain 3's]

What about Monroe Central's chances? Where do some of you think they will end up? They're currently 12th in the region, with big games against Fort Frye, Magnolia, and Barnesville still remaining. Do they host if they win out? Where do they end up if they lose against one of those 3 teams?

Also, some other big games of note in this region for week 5:
Minford vs. Oak Hill
Coal Grove vs. Greenup County
Nelsonville-York @ St. Clairsville

[seowrestler]

I think Monroe Central is in with an 8-2 or possibily 9-1 record (depends on the Magnolia game). If they finish 9-1, they should host. They are good enough to make some noise in the playoffs.

[fuzzhead]

Wheelersburg will lose at least one more game. Nelsonville will lose this week and - just like last year -will have a tough time getting in with 2 losses. They're already way back in the pack. If Coal Grove wins this week, they should make it with two wins against two D2-sized schools. If Valley loses a game, they'll be hurting due to a horrible non-conference schedule. They could lose as many as three games. I think they'll lose two.

[selonmc]

What about Monroe Central's chances? Where do some of you think they will end up? They're currently 12th in the region, with big games against Fort Frye, Magnolia, and Barnesville still remaining. Do they host if they win out? Where do they end up if they lose against one of those 3 teams?

Also, some other big games of note in this region for week 5:
Minford vs. Oak Hill
Coal Grove vs. Greenup County
Nelsonville-York @ St. Clairsville

MC most definetly will host if they win out. Their points will be around 22.0, so I highly doubt that 4 other teams will have more than 22 pts. They probably will be the #1 seed with that many points.

They will make the playoffs at 8-2 I feel. Possibly, could even host at 8-2, but that would be maybe a 50/50 probability. It would be close, and almost impossible to tell at this point. At 7-3 they likely would be out of the playoffs although they'd have a shot.

[selonmc]

Early playoff projections. I'll obviously amend as the season goes. Just my guesses.

1 OAK HILL (9-1) 20.85
2 NELSONVILLE-YORK (8-2) 19.76
3 FREDRICKTOWN (9-1) 18.45
4 RIDGEWOOD (10-0) 18.35
5 MONROE CENTRAL (8-2) 18.25
6 WHEELERSBURG (7-3) 17.15
7 COAL GROVE (8-2) 15.62
8 FORT FRYE (9-1) 14.95
9 VALLEY (8-2) 13.75
10 CALDWELL (8-2) 13.55
11 LIBERTY UNION (7-3) 12.4
12 CROOKSVILLE (7-3) 11.5
13 MINFORD (6-4) 10.8

[indianabuck]

I feel that the Ready victory gets Nelsonville York in. If they win this week they will host, if they lose, then they will be 7 or 8.

[LetsGoPSU]

After 4 weeks not a pts based ranking
1.Fredericktown
Johnstown-Monroe
2.West Lafayette Ridgewood
win out to 10-0?
3.Woodsfield Monroe Central
Magnolia
4.Minford
Oak Hill,@Wheelersburg,Portsmouth West,@Valley
5.Oak Hill
@Minford
6.Wheelersburg
Minford,@Valley,@Portsmouth West
7.Lucasville Valley
@Portsmouth West,Wheelersburg,Minford
8.Coal Grove Dawson Bryant
Greenup County
9.Nelsonville-York
@St Clairsville,@Wellston,Athens
10.Beverly Fort Frye
Monroe-Central,@Caldwell
11.Caldwell
Fort Frye
12.Barnesville
Shadyside,@Monroe Central,@Magnolia
13.Baltimore Liberty Union
Licking Hrights,@Harvest Prep,West Jefferson
14.Crooksville
@John Glenn,Tri-Valley,@New Lexington,Sheridan,@Maysville
15.Cardington-Lincoln
Buckeye Valley,@Highland,@Pleasant,North Union
16.Frankfort Adena
@Southeastern,@Unioto,Westfall,Piketon

[fuzzhead]

I feel that the Ready victory gets Nelsonville York in. If they win this week they will host, if they lose, then they will be 7 or 8.

Sorry Indy but I just can't see it. Ready has already lost two games - more than all of last year - and will almost certainly lose more. Add in the fact that Athens isn't going to get anywhere near 9 wins this year and it doesn't look good for NY: 8-2 once again with their best win coming against a down Bishop Ready team with the TVC being down from last year as well. The sad thing is there will probably be at least one less-deserving team who gets in above them or a Valley or a Burg. It's a great deal about knowing how to schedule when you're talking playoffs.

[hammer89]

Ready will lose at least two more games. Hartley will beat them by 4 TD's at least. This is the worst team Ready has had in the last ten years.

[fuzzhead]

^^^Agreed. There will be at least one very deserving 8-2 team in 5:19 that will be heart-broken after week 10. Personally, I think it will Valley and/or NY. Valley's non-conference schedule is just awful. Add to that the fact they still must face Northwest and Waverly who will likely have 3 wins between them, and a single loss puts a big dent in playoff talks.

[hammer89]

Ready also plays the Columbus Crusaders, so NY will get no second level points from a Ready victory. I think NY has to beat St. C. this week or they will be on the outside looking in. If they win this week, they could still get in with one other loss in their conference.

[fuzzhead]

Oh they'll maul their conference opponents. Athens might win 4 games and Alexander is way down from last year as well. NY is very deserving but I'm afraid in the end, the 4-point loss to NC will be the difference between a playoff spot and sitting at home in week 11...

[selonmc]

I don't think N-Y at 8-2 will miss the playoffs. They will be in fine shape with 8 wins. They may not get points from the Columbus Crusaders, but their 2nd level divisor goes down too so it pretty much evens out.

Also if Valley doesn't make it then they were eliminated on the field. They still play Minford and Wheelersburg. They lose those two games then they lose to playoff teams anyways. Weeks 1 through 10 is week one of the playoffs.

[indianabuck]

every school NY plays now is bigger. Alexander will have 1 loss going into the NY game. Even a 4 win Athens team will help cause they are D2. Ready may only lose 1 more to Hartley. 6 wins that count from them will help.

[fuzzhead]

Athens was DII last year and they won 9 games and NY still missed the playoffs after beating them. Every time Meigs wins, Coal Grove and Minford get points too. Everytime Athens wins, CG gets points. Everytime Trimble wins, CG gets points. NY's conference schedule is not that big of an asset to them. They could use a CG loss this weekend for sure. If that happens, it would put CG out of the picture and open up some breathing room. This is the first really big week in the region. Some teams are going to be exposed, some are going to man up. The fun will really start when the SOC2 heavyweights start slugging it out with each other. Potentially three playoff spots depend on how that conference shakes out.

[55buckeyes98]

Nelsonville wants Athens to lose all the TVC games because all the TVC schools get more points for beating a bigger school, then you get those points when you beat all the teams in the TVC. So you want all the smaller schools to win.

[2trap_4ever]

For what it is worth, here is Drew Pasteur's Playoff Predicted seeds for this region

Projected Seeds
1) Oak Hill
2) Fredericktown
3) Minford
4) Ridgewood (West Lafayette)
5) Valley (Lucasville)
6) Monroe Central (Woodsfield)
7) Dawson-Bryant (Coal Grove)
8 Wheelersburg

Of note, here is how he has the regions teams overall chances.
Oak Hill 99% (7W-15.1H-47% 8W-18.5H-98% 9W-22.0H-100%)
Fredericktown 92% (6W-12.5H-3% 7W-14.5H-31% 8W-16.8H-84% 9W-19.3H-99% 10W-22.5H-100%)
Ridgewood (West Lafayette) 89% (7W-12.5H-7% 8W-14.8H-39% 9W-17.5H-92% 10W-20.4H-99%)
Minford 75% (6W-13.4H-12% 7W-16.8H-78% 8W-20.5H-99% 9W-24.2H-100%)
Dawson-Bryant (Coal Grove) 71% (6W-12.7H-10% 7W-14.5H-31% 8W-16.7H-78% 9W-20.4H-99%)
Valley (Lucasville) 62% (7W-12.0H-1% 8W-15.3H-43% 9W-18.8H-99% 10W-22.6H-100%)
Nelsonville-York (Nelsonville) 51% (6W-12.5H-3% 7W-15.3H-45% 8W-18.4H-98% 9W-22.0H-100%)
Wheelersburg 50% (6W-13.5H-11% 7W-17.3H-87% 8W-21.3H-100%)
Caldwell 48% (7W-12.6H-6% 8W-14.6H-29% 9W-16.9H-82%)

[fuzzhead]

I was wondering when this was coming out! Looks about right. Hopefully
the Burg does squeeze in there!

[I drain 3's]

I would love to see Caldwell in the playoffs again for I believe the 3rd year in a row. However, I'm also a realist. I'll use Pasteur's projections. If Caldwell some how did manage to sneak in the playoffs with a 7 or 8 seed, and have to go up against An Oak Hill, or Frederickstown (again), or Minford, they would get absolutely demolished. They're just not up to that level yet. I believe, for a division 5 school, they are extremely small. From what I remember, when they re-did the divisions, Caldwell barely squeaked into Division 5, by like 5 people or less. They just don't have the athletes to compete against these well established football programs. If they are to have any post season success here soon, it's going to take a drop back down to division 6 to do it. I don't know a lot about the points system, but Caldwell had 17.9 points and barely got in at the 8th seed. In Division 6, Region 23 (where they were before they moved up) that would have been good for the #1 seed, by over 1.5 points.