Division 5 Region 19 in 2010

[selonmc]

Drew Pasteur's rankings are solid, but there is one hole in them. He gives no credit for beating an out of state team. You could beat a AAAA Texas team and it doesn't figure into his calculations.

[2trap_4ever]

Which then bolds well for the Grove, I noticed he had this weeks game with Greenup as a no pick, if we win that one it should bump us up a spot in his rankings.

[seowrestler]

What are Monroe Central's percentages?

[I drain 3's]

What are Monroe Central's percentages?

Playoff Berth:
Monroe Central (Woodsfield) 79% (6W-12.3H-4% 7W-14.9H-36% 8W-17.8H-96% 9W-20.9H-99%)

Home Game Chances:
Monroe Central (Woodsfield) 31% (8W-17.8H-18% 9W-20.9H-82%)

Regional Championship Odds:
Monroe Central (Woodsfield) 15:1

[coop]

Wheelersburg will lose at least one more game. Nelsonville will lose this week and - just like last year -will have a tough time getting in with 2 losses. They're already way back in the pack. If Coal Grove wins this week, they should make it with two wins against two D2-sized schools. If Valley loses a game, they'll be hurting due to a horrible non-conference schedule. They could lose as many as three games. I think they'll lose two.

I see one loss for Valley, but I'm sure the Indians were hoping the OVC would be a little stronger this year...hopefully those schools (Peake, Hill, Grove, SP) can scratch out some wins....

[selonmc]

Which then bolds well for the Grove, I noticed he had this weeks game with Greenup as a no pick, if we win that one it should bump us up a spot in his rankings.

yeah I'm not sure how he does that. The way he's got Grove seeded he must be projecting a loss to Greenup Co because you see in his percentages that Grove with 9 wins would have their points in the 20 pt range which would project them a lot higher in the final seedings.

So, yes, if Grove wins this week I would expect them to shoot up in his (and my) projections. I don't see anybody else on their schedule that would be favored against them the rest of the way. That would mean they'd likely end with 9 wins.

[selonmc]

I would love to see Caldwell in the playoffs again for I believe the 3rd year in a row. However, I'm also a realist. I'll use Pasteur's projections. If Caldwell some how did manage to sneak in the playoffs with a 7 or 8 seed, and have to go up against An Oak Hill, or Frederickstown (again), or Minford, they would get absolutely demolished. They're just not up to that level yet. I believe, for a division 5 school, they are extremely small. From what I remember, when they re-did the divisions, Caldwell barely squeaked into Division 5, by like 5 people or less. They just don't have the athletes to compete against these well established football programs. If they are to have any post season success here soon, it's going to take a drop back down to division 6 to do it. I don't know a lot about the points system, but Caldwell had 17.9 points and barely got in at the 8th seed. In Division 6, Region 23 (where they were before they moved up) that would have been good for the #1 seed, by over 1.5 points.

Caldwell is D5 by 3 boys. It's tough being on the border. Region 23 is easier than 19, but you still have teams like Shadyside and Newark Catholic and Malvern. Look what Shadyside did to MC this year. But Caldwell would be better suited for 23.

Caldwell is pretty simple. Their game with Fort Frye is week 1 of the playoffs. 9 wins and they're in. They won't have as high of points as they did last year because their ooc teams aren't winning as many games, but the cut-off won't be 17.9 either. It should be in the 15.0-16.0 range. But I expect Frontier to also give them a game so who knows. You are right, Caldwell is just not at the level as the rest of 19. Honestly I don't think MC can make it out of week 11, and MC is on a different level than Caldwell. Just enjoy the playoff atmosphere if you make it and try your best. Next year they re-do enrollment and divisions and with any luck you'll be back in division 6.

[fuzzhead]

I see one loss for Valley, but I'm sure the Indians were hoping the OVC would be a little stronger this year...hopefully those schools (Peake, Hill, Grove, SP) can scratch out some wins....

The OVC was just as bad last year. So was Huntington. They need to keep CG and drop Huntington and at least two OVC teams. After tomorrow, OVC teams HAVE to start winning because they play each other! Haha
Valley is one of the top 8 teams in the region no matter what the points say but they can't afford to lose two games.

[hornet8088]

i was wanting the ovc to be better but i think then ext couple years it will be as a league after watching some jv and jr games and looking at some scores i thought fairland would have wona 2 more games so far and the peak had their chances at wayne i hope in the next few years the ovc is up and the hornets still win it. but now its usually a couple tough games no matter the records. keep working hornets.

[fuzzhead]

Well, #2 Cardington-Lincoln goes down last night to a bad Buckeye Valley team. I think we all knew they'd get exposed soon. Oak Hill goes down to Minford, and Ft Frye gets handled by #12 Monroe Central. Nelsonville-York went down hard against St Clairsville like we all knew they would and they'll need to win out plus get some help to get into the playoffs. Coal Grove picked up a big win at home against formerly 3-1 D2-sized Greenup County. All of their earliers opponents picked up wins as well so they'll be moving on up. Some minor moving and shaking going on, but most of it was very predictable. SOC2 season starts next week and that's when things will get really fun!

[yabbadabbadoo]

Burg needs to win at least 4 of the next 5 I think to get in. It all starts this Friday against Minford. It will be a tough test for the Burg, but I think they can do it. They then play Northwest at home and then finish on the road against Waverly, Valley and West.

[falconbacker]

Burg is all but eliminated. They will lose to West and could easily lose to Valley or Minford plus lousy point games against Fairland, Rock Hil, Northwest, and Waverly. Ridgeweed is sounding like they will be tough again. I'm not sold on Fredricktown or LU yet though. Of course Oak Hill win run the table. Minford will lose at least two games this year, but could lose as many as four. Same with Valley.

Oak Hill fell off the table. Minford is improving every week. Minford's speed and strength surprising people. Valley playing great ball. Burg all but done this year.

[falconbacker]

I see one loss for Valley, but I'm sure the Indians were hoping the OVC would be a little stronger this year...hopefully those schools (Peake, Hill, Grove, SP) can scratch out some wins....

The OVC was just as bad last year. So was Huntington. They need to keep CG and drop Huntington and at least two OVC teams. After tomorrow, OVC teams HAVE to start winning because they play each other! Haha
Valley is one of the top 8 teams in the region no matter what the points say but they can't afford to lose two games.

Valley playing good ball against weak teams! Wait and see how they play when SOC II play starts.

[I drain 3's]

Some PVC news regarding this area. Caldwell defeated River to improve to 4-1, Central beat Fort Frye, Buckeye Trail picked up their first win, and Barnesville improved to 4-1 with a win over Shenandoah.

[selonmc]

Haven't crunched numbers yet this week, but right off I think Coal Grove basically solidified a playoff spot. Maybe Fairland can give them a game, but they should be favored the rest of the way. I think they could even drop one yet and still make it.

Caldwell vs. Fort Frye later this year isn't necessarily for a playoff spot. I think Caldwell wins and they will get in provided they don't lose another game. Fort Frye could go 9-1 and not make it.

I have no idea how Minford, Wheelersburg, and Valley ends up. The whole region hinges on how they beat up each other in the 2nd half of the year.

[fuzzhead]

Burg is all but eliminated. They will lose to West and could easily lose to Valley or Minford plus lousy point games against Fairland, Rock Hil, Northwest, and Waverly. Ridgeweed is sounding like they will be tough again. I'm not sold on Fredricktown or LU yet though. Of course Oak Hill win run the table. Minford will lose at least two games this year, but could lose as many as four. Same with Valley.

Oak Hill fell off the table. Minford is improving every week. Minford's speed and strength surprising people. Valley playing great ball. Burg all but done this year.

Regardless of what happens after week 10 is said and done, Burg, Minford, and Valley are all some of the top 8 teams in region 19. At least one of them won't make it because they all play each other, but I'd put Wheelersburg against any non-conference team in the region o on a neutral field and would expect them to either win or come within a score or two.

[LetsGoPSU]

I think Burg would struggle with the Likes of Freddie or Ridgewood whereever the game is played.
They have two huge games left with Minford and West and could have a tough time with Valley.Minford faces the same gauntlet, with IMO West being the one they may struggle with.I feel Valley beating either of the three,West, Burg, Minford would be a mild upset

[hammer89]

^^^Agreed, both the Freddies and Ridgewood look to be the real deal this year. Fredericktown just smoked a decent Danville team, and Ridgewood just thumped an athletic Malvern squad. Ridgewood has outscored their first five opponents by an average of 53-9, and should get a home playoff game if they win out.

[fuzzhead]

Didn't say Burg would beat either team. Just can't see em losing by more than two scores. Burg has only lost to good teams - Ironton being the best in the area and maybe a state title contender. Neither Fredericktown or Ridgeweed have played a team like the Tigers. Both will certainly be playing at home in week 11. Both are beatable in Region 19. Burg was a fumble away from beating F-town last year and Oak Hill gave Ridgewood a very stiff test.

[vladimir]

These are raw projection for the end of week 5, since Joe eitel isn't up:

1)Minford 10.75
2) Coal Grove 8.25
3)Fredricktown 7.9
4)Monroe Central 7.25
5)Ridgewood 7.05
6)Caldwell 6.7
6) Valley 6.7
8 ) Crooksville 6.25
9) Barnesville 6.0
10) Cardington 5.8
11) Oak Hill 5.7
12) Beverly Fort Frye 5.2
13) Nelsonville-York 4.77
14) Chillicothe Southeastern 4.32
15) Wheelersburg 4.25