Division 5 Region 19 in 2010

[I drain 3's]

New rankings are up.

http://www.joeeitel.com/hsfoot/2010region_19.html

Wheelersburg steps into the number 8 spot with their big win over Minford. They are currently tied with Caldwell points wise. Anybody know how they determine a tie as to who gets placed above the other? Wasn't really a good week for Caldwell at all, as every team they played lost.

[LetsGoPSU]

week 6 opionion poll not pts based
1.Fredericktown
win out to 10-0 ?
2.West Lafayette Ridgewood
@ Strausburg-Franklin
3.Wheelersburg
@ Valley,@ Portsmouth West
4.Coal Grove Dawson Bryant
win out to 9-1 ?
5.Minford
Portsmouth West,@ Valley
6.Lucasville Valley
@ Portsmouth West,Wheelersburg,Minford
7.Oak Hill
New Richmond
8.Woodsfield Monroe Central
win out to 8-2 ?
9.Nelsonville-York
Athens
10.Baltimore Liberty Union
Berne Union,West Jefferson
11.Caldwell
Fort Frye
12.Barnesville
@ Monroe Central,@ Magnolia
13.Crooksville
Tri-Valley,@ New Lexington,Sheridan,@ Maysville
14.Frankfort Adena
@Unioto,Westfall
15.Beverly Fort Frye
@ Caldwell,Bishop Rosecrans
16.Cardington-Lincoln
@ Pleasant,North Union

[fuzzhead]

Looks like Nelsonville and Wheelersburg will get into playoffs. That's good for the Region - it will make it tougher. Burg can afford to lose one more. NY can't. Looks like Minford could make it in even with 3 losses and actually host with 2. Ridgewood still has a tough game against Strasburg-Franklin, but should win out. Fredericktown will win out and probably get the top seed once again. Things look a lot clearer this week... We know who a lot of the pretenders are now.

In no particular order, here's 7 of the teams I think we'll see in the playoffs:

F-Town
Ridgeweed
Minford
Burg
NY
Coal Grove
Monroe Central

Caldwell looks to be the 8th team, but I'm leery to pick them...

[fuzzhead]

Totally just left Oak Hill out. My bad. Oak Hill
will be in for sure.

[I drain 3's]

Caldwell still have three games left that are not going to be easy. Frontier looks to have finally stepped up the past couple weeks, and they've got the ability to put big numbers up on the board. While FF is essentially out of the playoffs, i'm sure they'd love to play the spoiler against Caldwell. Although they lost to Frontier, they're still a decent team. And of course the rivalry game in week 10 against Shenandoah.

[selonmc]

Week 6 Playoff Projections:

1 FREDRICKTOWN (10-0) 22.40
Beating Johnstown Monroe like they did was very impressive. The team to beat in the region.

2 OAK HILL (9-1) 21.40
New Richmond is really their last test. I think if they win they'll host.

3 COAL GROVE (9-1) 20.06
Still think they'll finish 9-1. Likely will host a game.

4 NELSONVILLE-YORK (8-2) 19.91
Big point games left on the schedule. If they can win out they should be in control to play home week 11.

5 RIDGEWOOD (10-0) 18.45
Need help in order to host a playoff game. Nobody left on their schedule will touch them.

6 MINFORD (8-2) 18.25
SOC II is going to be very interesting. Needs to beat either West or Valley. 7 wins probably won't cut it.

7 MONROE CENTRAL (8-2) 17.90
I figured they would lose to Magnolia, but the manner in which they did was shocking. Definitely a one and done team if they make it.

8 WHEELERSBURG (7-3) 15.65
Big win puts them back in the run. Comes down to the Valley and West games. 8 wins and they're in no problem. 7 and they will need to watch scoreboards come week 10.

9 CALDWELL (8-2) 13.95
Would like to put more faith in them, but I just feel like they'll lose one more down the stretch. Win out and they will make it.

10 CROOKSVILLE (7-3) 12.90
Losing to John Glenn this week kinda sealed their fate unless they have an epic upset against Tri-Valley or Sheridan.

11 LIBERTY UNION (7-3) 12.20
Could play spoiler and sneak in if they beat West Jefferson. They could ruin somebody's week 10 if they pull the upset. I don't think they do it.

12 VALLEY (7-3) 11.65
I know Valley fans get upset when they see me put their team here, but I'm just going by recent history. 8-2 could get them in if things fall right, but probably would have to win 9 to get in.

[Steely Dan]

Week 6 Playoff Projections:

1 FREDRICKTOWN (10-0) 22.40
Beating Johnstown Monroe like they did was very impressive. The team to beat in the region.

2 OAK HILL (9-1) 21.40
New Richmond is really their last test. I think if they win they'll host.

3 COAL GROVE (9-1) 20.06
Still think they'll finish 9-1. Likely will host a game.

4 NELSONVILLE-YORK (9-1) 19.91
Big point games left on the schedule. If they can win out they should be in control to play home week 11.

5 RIDGEWOOD (10-0) 18.45
Need help in order to host a playoff game. Nobody left on their schedule will touch them.

6 MINFORD (8-2) 18.25
SOC II is going to be very interesting. Needs to beat either West or Valley. 7 wins probably won't cut it.

7 MONROE CENTRAL (8-2) 17.90
I figured they would lose to Magnolia, but the manner in which they did was shocking. Definitely a one and done team if they make it.

8 WHEELERSBURG (7-3) 15.65
Big win puts them back in the run. Comes down to the Valley and West games. 8 wins and they're in no problem. 7 and they will need to watch scoreboards come week 10.

9 CALDWELL (8-2) 13.95
Would like to put more faith in them, but I just feel like they'll lose one more down the stretch. Win out and they will make it.

10 CROOKSVILLE (7-3) 12.90
Losing to John Glenn this week kinda sealed their fate unless they have an epic upset against Tri-Valley or Sheridan.

11 LIBERTY UNION (7-3) 12.20
Could play spoiler and sneak in if they beat West Jefferson. They could ruin somebody's week 10 if they pull the upset. I don't think they do it.

12 VALLEY (7-3) 11.65
I know Valley fans get upset when they see me put their team here, but I'm just going by recent history. 8-2 could get them in if things fall right, but probably would have to win 9 to get in.

You need to revisit this. NY is 4-2, so they can't end up 9-1. Lost to Nerk Catholic and got stomped by St. Clairsville.

[selonmc]

^^^ Fixed it. I just wrote the wrong thing down. I had them losing those two games. Doesn't change anything else.

[Green Beagle]

Ny should end up around 19.0 with 8 wins. May end up 4 or 5 but should make it in at 8-2. Must win out though. Played Newark tough and got beat by st clairsville who is No 1 in their region div. 4 . Good luck to NY.

[LetsGoPSU]

Athens is beggining a nice run, but I have NY still getting the win and finishing at 8-2

[Jock_Itch]

I understand putting Valley so low at this point but I believe they are going to surprise alot of people

[Jesco White]

All of the projections at this point make me laugh my butt off. Nothing against those of you doing it, because I've had the hobby of tracking and projecting myself at home for years now. However, what makes me laugh is that NONE and I stress NONE of us can accurately predict the happenings of the next four weeks. Honestly, did any of you expect Wheelersburg was gonna throttle Minford the way they did? Heck, a lot of people (not even just Minford fans) were predicting them as a potential Regional Champ. I read a post above that talks about only Minford and Burg haven't played a weak schedule to this point out of the four SOC II front-runners. I'm a huge SOC fan, to the point of bias, but I have to be honest, I'm not impressed by the teams that Minford had played prior to playing the Pirates. I had hoped for a Minford win, though I expected a Burg win. I certainly didn't expect the game to go the way it did, though. I still think Minford is a talented football team. However, if you break down their schedule, you will find the three best teams that they beat aside from Oak Hill were Wellston, Meigs and Piketon........seriously, Wellston, Meigs and Piketon as "strong" should not be synonomous this year. Then you've got their win over Oak Hill in which Oak Hill's 4-yr QB and leader didn't even play along with another of their top players. Was it a solid win, definitely!!!! But, you've got to keep such things in perspective. Its gonna serve as an awesome points game for the Falcons and I hope with all my heart that Minford, Burg and Valley all make the playoffs in this region. I just think some of the stuff I've read is funny. Not that I think the author(s) of those posts aren't intelligient. I guess I just look at it a little different than some.

Ok, off my soap-box......predict and project on ;)

Good luck SOC II teams!!

[LetsGoPSU]

I do it only because it gets me involved in my favorite sport from my favorite place in the world.I take the time and make the effort to read the posts and on line papers and it helps me keep my hands on SE Ohio football.One thing Ive always stated is this, Im not even close to being an expert, but I love doing it, and to see just how close I have em. Also it generates some strong talk and I gain knowledge from that as well.....The one thing that is great about public forums.Everyone can have thier own opinion, and nobody has to agree or even read for that matter.

[selonmc]

You mean I'm not clairvoyant? I had no idea. I should have foreseen that.

Wow. Thanks... "Jesco"... for issuing that statement in case people thought I somehow know something others don't. I just like high school football and like to see how far I'm off from week to week. But we totally needed your input to keep things in their proper perspective as I'm sure people didn't already know what the definition of "projection" was.

pro-jec-tion: n. an estimate of future possibilities based on a current trend

[Jock_Itch]

I think Jesco was just trying to point out the fact that in High School Football you never know what can happen...anything can happen on any certain week

[vladimir]

You mean I'm not clairvoyant? I had no idea. I should have foreseen that.

Wow. Thanks... "Jesco"... for issuing that statement in case people thought I somehow know something others don't. I just like high school football and like to see how far I'm off from week to week. But we totally needed your input to keep things in their proper perspective as I'm sure people didn't already know what the definition of "projection" was.

pro-jec-tion: n. an estimate of future possibilities based on a current trend

The key word here is: Possibilities.

[selonmc]

You mean I'm not clairvoyant? I had no idea. I should have foreseen that.

Wow. Thanks... "Jesco"... for issuing that statement in case people thought I somehow know something others don't. I just like high school football and like to see how far I'm off from week to week. But we totally needed your input to keep things in their proper perspective as I'm sure people didn't already know what the definition of "projection" was.

pro-jec-tion: n. an estimate of future possibilities based on a current trend

The key word here is: Possibilities.

The key word is "of". Think about it.

[LetsGoPSU]

somehow Im reminded of the Clinton hearings

[I drain 3's]

Drew Pasteur updated his site. Here's the playoff probability chart.

Playoff Berth Probabilities
(projected Harbin cutoff 16.46 points)
Fredericktown 99% (7W-16.7H-83% 8W-18.2H-97% 9W-20.3H-100%)
Dawson-Bryant (Coal Grove) 97% (6W-14.8H-35% 7W-16.4H-64% 8W-18.2H-95% 9W-20.1H-99%)
Minford 96% (6W-16.1H-60% 7W-17.3H-87% 8W-21.0H-100%)
Oak Hill 95% (6W-12.8H-4% 7W-15.2H-37% 8W-18.7H-99% 9W-22.4H-100%)
Ridgewood (West Lafayette) 89% (8W-14.0H-13% 9W-16.6H-76% 10W-19.8H-99%)
Monroe Central (Woodsfield) 72% (6W-12.9H-1% 7W-15.2H-27% 8W-17.8H-96%)
Nelsonville-York (Nelsonville) 69% (6W-13.3H-5% 7W-16.2H-58% 8W-19.3H-99%)
Valley (Lucasville) 64% (7W-12.2H-1% 8W-15.8H-39% 9W-19.5H-99% 10W-23.2H-100%)
Wheelersburg 54% (6W-12.1H-1% 7W-15.9H-44% 8W-19.9H-99%)
Caldwell 37% (8W-14.7H-15% 9W-16.8H-64%)
Crooksville 12% (7W-13.3H-4% 8W-17.2H-71% 9W-21.4H-100%)
Adena (Frankfort) 5% (6W-12.4H-1% 7W-15.8H-29%)
Barnesville 5% (7W-13.4H-3% 8W-16.4H-58%)
Liberty Union (Baltimore) 3% (8W-15.1H-14%)


And the projected seeds:

Projected Seeds
1) Minford
2) Fredericktown
3) Oak Hill
4) Dawson-Bryant (Coal Grove)
5) Ridgewood (West Lafayette)
6) Valley (Lucasville)
7) Nelsonville-York (Nelsonville)
8) Monroe Central (Woodsfield)


You can see the whole site here: http://www.fantastic50.net/index.php?pr=Ohio_Region_19

[fuzzhead]

Boy I hope CG hangs onto a home game! If Symmes Valley gets one too, that'll be three playoff games in Lawrence County in two days! I'm pretty sure that's never happened before!