Region 19...Week 10

[Crab's Brother]

Here is a link to Joe's standing for region 19:

http://www.joeeitel.com/hsfoot/2012region_19.html


There are a few big games left that will decide who goes where in this region. I figured the projected points for the top 12. Bucyrus, Fed Hock, or Grandview Heights could throw a wrench into all of this with a big upset in week 10. I don't see any of those happening, but I have been wrong before.

Here is what I think we see when the dust settles this weekend:

1. Valley.......20.06
2. Oak Hill.....18.05
3. Burg.........17.53
4. Wynford.....17.10
5. Loudonville...16.50
6. Liberty Union..14.65
7. Hillsdale.......12.95
8. Nelsonville.....11.35

Minford beats Valley:

Valley goes to 16.12 and Burg goes to 17.94

Fredericktown beats Loudonville:

Freddies goes to 11.84 and Loudonville goes to 14.0

Grandview beats Liberty Union:

LU goes to 12.15 (I don't see anyone finishing under where GH would get to)

If Nelsonville wins:

NY finishes at 15.70

To break it down:

--Oak Hill, Wynford, and Wheelersburg are set for home games barring upsets.

--Valley will be the #1 seed with a win over Minford. Valley will finish either #4 or #5 with a loss. If Loudonville wins and Valley loses, I believe Valley will go to Loudonville in week 11.

--If Nelsonville wins, I have them traveling to Wheelersburg.

--If Liberty Union loses, I believe they go to Oak Hill in the 1st round.

--If Fredericktown upends Loudonville and Nelsonville loses to Athens, the Freddies would more than likely slide into the 8 spot and play at Valley or Oak Hill in week 11.

There are a lot of scenarios, so if any of you have any questions, just let me know and I will figure the results and post it.

Should be a fun week.

[Burg_Grad_77]

I don't care who the Burg plays as long as it's a home game.

Good luck to the Pirates, the Indians, and the Oaks this week. Let's finish 1,2,3 and show that the SOC is a very strong league this year.

[Ichthus]

Amen Burg grad!!

[indianabuck]

The Freddie's best Loudenville. You heard it here first. Then it will either be them or Nelsonville-York

[Crab's Brother]

The Freddie's best Loudenville. You heard it here first. Then it will either be them or Nelsonville-York

If Fredericktown wins, it will be very hard for NY to make it with out a win. Academy or East Knox could also keep Nelsonville out win an upset this week.

If both NY and Fredericktown go down, then NY is going to need Logan to beat Warren. If Logan were to lose, I believe the #8 spot would come down to the Meigs-Alexander game. A Meigs win there, and Coal Grove would more than likely pass Nelsonville.

[fuzzhead]

Grove could also use a Fairland win over River Valley.

[Crab's Brother]

Grove could also use a Fairland win over River Valley.

I didn't even factor that in. I don't see Fairland losing that game unless they just completely fail to show up.

[Jesco White]

Grove could also use a Fairland win over River Valley.

Aren't both teams D-4? That means CG is gonna get 4.5 2nd level points regardless of winner.

[Crab's Brother]

Grove could also use a Fairland win over River Valley.

Aren't both teams D-4? That means CG is gonna get 4.5 2nd level points regardless of winner.

Nelsonville has a win over River Valley.

[Jesco White]

Grove could also use a Fairland win over River Valley.

Aren't both teams D-4? That means CG is gonna get 4.5 2nd level points regardless of winner.

Nelsonville has a win over River Valley.

Oh yeah, oops

[NY BUCKS]

NY has wins over Meigs and alex ...

[FalconPride]

It is great to see 3 SOC schools at the top of this region after 9 weeks! I know that Valley got the best of Burg last week, but who is the favorite to come out of this to represent region 19? Regardless of which 8 teams make it in the playoffs this looks to be an exciting region to watch!

[Crab's Brother]

NY has wins over Meigs and alex ...

Yes, but Grove also has a win over Meigs. So, if Logan loses, NY will need an Alexander win in that game to hold off the Hornets.

[NY BUCKS]

i give the edge to alex.

[4thgoal]

It is great to see 3 SOC schools at the top of this region after 9 weeks! I know that Valley got the best of Burg last week, but who is the favorite to come out of this to represent region 19? Regardless of which 8 teams make it in the playoffs this looks to be an exciting region to watch!

I would love to see a Burg vs Valley rematch in week 13 @ Jackson to see who goes to state!

[nutronron2012]

It is great to see 3 SOC schools at the top of this region after 9 weeks! I know that Valley got the best of Burg last week, but who is the favorite to come out of this to represent region 19? Regardless of which 8 teams make it in the playoffs this looks to be an exciting region to watch!

I would love to see a Burg vs Valley rematch in week 13 @ Jackson to see who goes to state!

From: http://fantastic50.net/Ohio_Reg_Odds.php
These probabilities are based on at least 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the regular season and playoffs; for each team, the percentage chance of winning the region is shown. Teams whose chance of winning is below 0.5% are not shown.


Region 19 Championship Probabilities
Valley (Lucasville) 34%
Wheelersburg 26%
Wynford (Bucyrus) 15%
Hillsdale (Jeromesville) 7%
Liberty Union (Baltimore) 7%
Loudonville 4%
Nelsonville-York (Nelsonville) 2%
Oak Hill 2%
Columbus Academy (Gahanna) 2%

If everything goes as projected, we may see a rematch. That would be great for Southern Ohio

[Alitown]

Everyone just needs to realize Crab's Bro is never wrong about this stuff... There is not one game or situation you can come up with that he hasn't already calculated!! Wow that was very difficult for me to say but it's true!!

[Crab's Brother]

Everyone just needs to realize Crab's Bro is never wrong about this stuff... There is not one game or situation you can come up with that he hasn't already calculated!! Wow that was very difficult for me to say but it's true!!

It is about time you realize that. :122245 :122245

I am pretty sure I taught you a few things along the line that have helped you out. LOL!!!!!!!

[Neutron Man]

So "if" Burg wins, and I hope we do.... But IF we win and NY loses. Who do you think we play? Cause I'm not sure if NY beats Athens!

[indianabuck]

Coal Grove need first to be Loudenville fans. If they beat Fredericktown, along with NY losing will help. You also need Warren to beat Logan and Meigs to beat Alex, then CG will probably be in. If NY loses and Fredericktown win, the Freddie's are in. If NY loses, but Logan and Alex win, then NY will sneak in. That is what I've seen people say and it seems accurate. This is all based on East Knox and Columbus Academy not pulling upsets also.