Region 21

[Crab's Brother]

What a "shakeup" week in Region 21. Of the 5 teams that I said we would know more about this week, only Valley came out with a win and other than that only Monroe Central was even in the game in the fourth quarter. So....What does it all mean?

I said there were 17 teams still in contention going into last week. I am going to drop that down to 16 (Ridgewood is now in the region) this week. I think you can take River and Crooksville out of the conversation. Taking Frontier out of the equation for River and their remaining opponents are 4-15. There will not be enough points for River, even at 7-3. Crooksville is looking at 5 wins max. No week 11 for them.

Here are how I would group the remaining teams:

Not true Contenders but not quite "out" (4):

Northmor - Not holding my breath here. Blown out by Centerburg. They should stay here for one more week by playing East Knox, but with Cardington-Lincoln in week 6, I am guessing that will be the end of any playoff hopes they have.
Belpre - Gave Wahama a battle. Looks like they could win out and the FF win may be worth some points. We will know more about the Golden Eagles in the next 2 weeks.
Fort Frye - Beating some bad, bad football teams. I think 7 wins is the max for these guys and there are not going to be many 2nd level points from those 7. I don't see the Cadets making any noise.
Coal Grove - I still think this is one of the more talented teams in Region 21 but they are in a world of hurting in respect to the playoffs. They are not beating Wheelersburg so 7-3 is the best they can do. Doesn't look like Finneytown is going to win many games and Meigs is looking at 5-5. The OVC is 5-11 out of conference so far. It doesn't look good for the Hornets.

The "Fringe" Teams (teams that will be battling for the final spots) (6):

Oak Hill - Last test of the year coming up this week. A win over Minford and you can count Oak Hill in the final 8. A loss and it will take some calculations to see where they are.
Centerburg/Cardington-Lincoln- Still going to group these two together. They play this week. Winner stays. Loser drops to the lower "Group".
Nelsonville - Got the win over a 3-0 team last week. They really need this win over Logan. Logan is going to win some games down the stretch. A win this week and I think you move NY into the Contender group and almost put them in if they do take care of business and finish 8-2.
Newark Catholic - First team that Lakewood competed with. I am not buying that NC can score enough points to beat the 3 very good teams left on their schedule. If the Green Wave find a way to beat Watkins Memorial this week, they would be squarely in the conversation.
Academy - We will figure the VIkings out after their trip to Grandview Heights this week.


The Playoff Contenders (Take care of business and you will play week 11) (6):

Ready - Drilled at Jackson last week. Not sure what to make of that, but now 7-3 looks like where they will be. The Knights could be in some trouble with 4 0-4's left on the schedule. Can they knock off Loudonville or maybe ride the Academy win into the playoffs? I think Ready's playoff chances may be in Jeopardy.
Fredericktown - Pretty sure they are going 10-0. They will host a playoff game and look to be one of the big favorites to hoist the Regional Title.
Grandview Heights - Big game this week with Academy. The West Jeff game doesn't look near as challenging now.
Valley - Huge Harbin week last week over Fleming County. Defeated opponents and future teams are taking care of business. 8-2 will get Valley in and 9-1 gets them a home game. The SOC is 11-5 out of conference, so a good finish in the league will help the Indians towards the playoffs.
Monroe Central - Tough OT loss last week, but looks like they will win out. 8-2 probably puts them on the road.
Ridgewood - New to the region this week. Not really sure how good TCC is, but a win by Ridgewood over them in week 6 should set the Generals up pretty good in Region 21.


Big Games this week:

Columbus Academy @ Grandview Heights
Nelsonville @ Logan
Oak Hill @ Minford
Centerburg @ Cardington-Lincoln
Newark Catholic @ Watkins Memorial
Waverly @ Coal Grove
Monroe Central @ Fort Frye

[doubleplay643]

Crab's Brother that is a very nice analysis, I agree with you I think Ready is in trouble and may not make it.

My guess is they lose to Loudonville and to Bishop Hartley based on watching them last week at Jackson. They are definitely down from last year's final four team a considerable amount. So 7-3 with not many secondary points from their remaining opponents that they should beat could be problematic for them to crack the top 8 spots.

[Crab's Brother]

Drew Pastuer now has Ready at 7-3 and out of the playoffs.

[EasternDspy]

This week a must win for both Monroe and Fort Frye

[coop]

Region 21 Projections headed into Week 5:

Region 21 Projections
1) Valley (Lucasville) (9-1) 24.45
2) Fredericktown (10-0) 22.90
3) Nelsonville-York (Nelsonville) (7-3) 16.15
4) Grandview Heights (Columbus) (7-3) 15.88
5) Centerburg (8-2) 15.65
6) Oak Hill (8-2) 15.12
7) Columbus Academy (Gahanna) (5-4) 13.72
8 ) Monroe Central (Woodsfield) (7-3) 13.51

[Crab's Brother]

Newark Catholic goes down to Watkins Memorial 10-3 last night.

The Wave are in trouble.

[hammer89]

And at least 2 more losses on their schedule. They are out unless they upset either Johnstown or Granville.

I really think this region is wide open with up to 6 to 8 teams with a legitimate shot to win it. It will be very important to see how the seeds shake out and whether the Northern teams in the region are making the 3+ hour bus ride to southern Ohio or vice versa in the 1st round. As with most regions from the OHSAA, this one makes no geographical sense.

[CN2]

Crabs- You're very insightful and detailed with your posts. Can you give your insight after week 5?

[hammer89]

After todays games it will look like this.

1 Valley
2 Fredericktown
3 Grandview Heights
4 Centerburg
5 Ready
6 Dawson-Bryant
7 Monroe Central
8 Oak Hill/Ridgewood (tied)
9 Nelsonville-York

I think the 8 spots will come from these 10 teams. No one else has a real shot unless some major upsets happen.

[Crab's Brother]

Hard to believe that we are already halfway home. Last week I said I thought there were still 16 teams in contention. I am going to drop that down to 15 as I don't think Fort Frye has any chance at all to make a run. They were pounded by Monroe Central and aren't going to beat Caldwell. I am move the Cadets to out. Here is how I see these 15 "contenders"

Not true Contenders but not quite "out" (5):

Northmor - They stay here for one more week with a win over 0-4 East Knox. I will call their game with Cardington-Lincoln this week an "elimination game" but I don't think either will be any factor at all come week 10. 7-3 is as good as it gets here.
Belpre - Hang around for another week with a win over Southern. There are not a lot of points left. I don't know a thing about Parkersburg Catholic, but I guess it is possible that Belpre runs the table and jumps up and steals a spot.
Cardington-Lincoln - 82-7. Not really sure what else to say. Winner of their game this week with Northmor will stay in this category. The loser will be eliminated from playoff contention.
Newark Catholic - How in the hell does a team giving up 5.6 points per game have a 3-2 record? I guess by scoring 7.4 a game. This team doesn't appear to have anywhere near the offense to score enough to upset Johnstown or Granville. But with that defense I guess anything is possible. They will stay here until they lose again and then they will be out.
Academy - They have a ton of points left on the schedule but it looks like it would take an upset to get them up near the top 8.


The "Fringe" Teams (teams that will be battling for the final spots) (4):

Coal Grove - A late comeback win over Waverly moves them up there. I do not see them beating Wheelersburg this week, but an upset there would jump them up to basically the "in" category. They are going to need help from Meigs and Waverly, but both may struggle within their respective leagues. The other OVC teams are a combined 6-14.
Oak Hill - A tough loss in OT at Minford, but the Oaks are still in pretty good shape. Chesapeake has a shot a 6 wins. East picked up a few non league wins. Oak Hill will run the table and should be in the final 8 unless a few of these other teams pull some upsets.
Nelsonville - Took a pounding from Logan. The Buckeyes need to win the next four and see what happens. Berne Union's schedule lets up big time so maybe NY can get some help there. I think the Buckeyes finish 7-3 and do some serious scoreboard watching the last few weeks of the season.
Ready - Hard to believe this but I think Ready could be in some trouble. I think they are looking at 3 more wins and those teams are a combined 2-13. They may end up needing help from Whitehall and Academy.

The Playoff Contenders (Take care of business and you will play week 11) (6):

Fredericktown - These guys continue to roll. Centerburg is the only remaining hurdle to a perfect season and a week 11 home game.
Valley - Win # 35 in a row was a laugher. The SOC seems pretty deep so the schedule picks up soon. The Fleming County win is going to be huge for Valley going forward. They look poised to finish 8-2 at the very least. Defeated opponents winning games is really going to help the Indians.
Grandview Heights - Nice win over Academy. Should still get a test or two win West Jeff and Madison Plains. Millersport beating up on the sisters of the poor will help Heights as the season winds down.
Monroe Central - The Noles should finish 8-2 and be in a pretty good spot. I don't see them hosting, but they should be in the final 8. Frontier is 5-0 but a not really impressive 5-0.
Ridgewood - It looks like this week and a matchup with TCC will tell the tale between 9-1 or 8-2. I am not going to claim to know anything about TCC, so I guess we will have to look at the Generals a little closer next week.
Centerburg - They are looking at 8-2 unless they could upset Fredericktown. It appears some of their defeated opponents are going to end up with decent records. I think Centerburg travels, but plays week 11.

Big week 6 games:

Waverly @ Valley
Wheelersburg @ Coal Grove
Oak Hill @ East
TCC @ Ridgewood
Meigs @ Nelsonville
Cardington-Lincoln @ Northmor
Belpre @ South Gallia
Newark Catholic @ Heath

[oneoak]

Nice analysis Crab's brother. I always enjoy reading your thoughts on this topic.

[tiger_pound_mom]

I think Ready will find a way in. Whitehall and Academy will provide points. Whitehall just defeated an undefeated Bexley team. I might be a homer, but if they get in I think they could win a game or two... Anything more than that might be asking a lot this season. Ready is incredibly young, talent wise.

[coop]

I think Ready will find a way in. Whitehall and Academy will provide points. Whitehall just defeated an undefeated Bexley team. I might be a homer, but if they get in I think they could win a game or two... Anything more than that might be asking a lot this season. Ready is incredibly young, talent wise.

I dont think anyone is counting them out at all, I think they have put themselves behind the 8 ball a little bit, but it does look like they will need help.

[AHM]

I think Ready will find a way in. Whitehall and Academy will provide points. Whitehall just defeated an undefeated Bexley team. I might be a homer, but if they get in I think they could win a game or two... Anything more than that might be asking a lot this season. Ready is incredibly young, talent wise.

Not Coach Cross fault, but Ready's schedule is embarrassing. They're going to get killed by Loudonville and Hartley and the other teams on their schedule are just plain terrible. No margin for error. And I'm hearing that one of the teams on Ready's remaining schedule refuses to play them leaving them with only 9 games?

Whoever made that schedule really let that team down.

[tiger_pound_mom]

Its easy to sit back and judge Ready's schedule and its weaknesses this season. The fact of the matter is you almost can't turn down a game as there are a large number of teams that 1) won't schedule Ready and 2) don't see the advantage in scheduling several divisions below them. Lets take a look at this schedule... Hartley is always the traditional rival and an elite program, Jackson is an undefeated division 3 program with shutouts of Wheelersburg and West Jeff, Loudonville is a power this season, last year Bellaire was a playoff team, and Academy finished 9th in the region (1 spot from playoff position). That's half the schedule made up of very good teams that had they performed like expected would have provided a ton of points. Yes, the schedule is weak. No, Ready couldn't have foreseen this. Anyways, not trying to jack this thread and make it about Ready.

Who are some teams you think could legitimately vie for the Region 21 crown?

[AHM]

Its easy to sit back and judge Ready's schedule and its weaknesses this season. The fact of the matter is you almost can't turn down a game as there are a large number of teams that 1) won't schedule Ready and 2) don't see the advantage in scheduling several divisions below them. Lets take a look at this schedule... Hartley is always the traditional rival and an elite program, Jackson is an undefeated division 3 program with shutouts of Wheelersburg and West Jeff, Loudonville is a power this season, last year Bellaire was a playoff team, and Academy finished 9th in the region (1 spot from playoff position). That's half the schedule made up of very good teams that had they performed like expected would have provided a ton of points. Yes, the schedule is weak. No, Ready couldn't have foreseen this. Anyways, not trying to jack this thread and make it about Ready.

Who are some teams you think could legitimately vie for the Region 21 crown?

Hartley has not had any problem finding games. Their schedule is brutal but it seems to pay off come playoff time. They don't have problem scheduling good teams that are divisions bigger than them. If Hartley can play the big CCL teams, Ready should be able to as well or not complain that their schedule is too soft. I heard that Cutler was willing to play one of the other big CCL schools. Maybe Ready should be willing to play better teams?

Fredericktown or Valley win this region.

[nutronron2012]

Here Drew's current playoff probabilities

Region 21 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 13.50)
Valley (Lucasville) 100%
Fredericktown 99% (7W-74% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Grandview Heights (Columbus) 98% (5W-34% 6W-88% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Centerburg 91% (6W-10% 7W-62% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Oak Hill 78% (6W-3% 7W-39% 8W-91% )
Bishop Ready (Columbus) 58% (5W-1% 6W-12% 7W-48% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Nelsonville-York (Nelsonville) 58% (5W-3% 6W-44% 7W-98% 8W-100% )
Monroe Central (Woodsfield) 57% (6W-7% 7W-60% 8W-99% )
Dawson-Bryant (Coal Grove) 55% (5W-2% 6W-14% 7W-65% 8W-99% )
Ridgewood (West Lafayette) 50% (7W-2% 8W-26% 9W-97% )
Columbus Academy (Gahanna) 25% (4W-2% 5W-68% 6W-100% 7W-100% )
Newark Catholic (Newark) 12% (5W-1% 6W-7% 7W-82% 8W-100% )


Region 21
Valley (Lucasville) (5-0, D6 R21) - Clinched playoff berth, controls own destiny for a home game
Fredericktown (5-0, D6 R21) - Controls own destiny for a playoff berth and for a home game
Grandview Heights (Columbus) (4-1, D6 R21) - Controls own destiny for a playoff berth and for a home game
Centerburg (4-1, D6 R21) - Controls own destiny for a playoff berth
Nelsonville-York (Nelsonville) (3-2, D6 R21) - Controls own destiny for a playoff berth
Columbus Academy (Gahanna) (2-2, D6 R21) - Controls own destiny for a playoff berth
Bishop Ready (Columbus) (4-1, D6 R21) - Controls own destiny for a playoff berth
Newark Catholic (Newark) (3-2, D6 R21) - Controls own destiny for a playoff berth
Dawson-Bryant (Coal Grove) (3-2, D6 R21) - Needs a little help for a playoff berth
Monroe Central (Woodsfield) (3-2, D6 R21) - Needs a little help for a playoff berth
Cardington-Lincoln (Cardington) (3-2, D6 R21) - Needs a little help for a playoff berth
Ridgewood (West Lafayette) (4-1, D6 R21) - Needs a little help for a playoff berth
Oak Hill (3-2, D6 R21) - Needs a little help for a playoff berth
Bellaire (1-4, D6 R21) - Needs help for a playoff berth
Belpre (3-2, D6 R21) - Needs help for a playoff berth
Fort Frye (Beverly) (3-2, D6 R21) - Needs help for a playoff berth
Huntington (Chillicothe) (2-3, D6 R21) - Needs help for a playoff berth
Crooksville (2-3, D6 R21) - Needs a lot of help for a playoff berth
Northmor (Galion) (3-2, D6 R21) - Needs a lot of help for a playoff berth
Buckeye Trail (Lore City) (1-4, D6 R21) - Needs a miracle for a playoff berth
River (Hannibal) (1-4, D6 R21) - Needs a miracle for a playoff berth
Barnesville (1-4, D6 R21) - Eliminated from playoff contention
East Knox (Howard) (0-5, D6 R21) - Eliminated from playoff contention
Shenandoah (Sarahsville) (0-5, D6 R21) - Eliminated from playoff contention
Federal Hocking (Stewart) (0-5, D6 R21) - Eliminated from playoff contention
Berne Union (Sugar Grove) (0-5, D6 R21) - Eliminated from playoff contention
Belpre 12% (6W-1% 7W-2% 8W-31% )
Cardington-Lincoln (Cardington) 5% (5W-1% 6W-1% 7W-17% 8W-98% )

[d-5]

Valley

[Crab's Brother]

I think Ready will find a way in. Whitehall and Academy will provide points. Whitehall just defeated an undefeated Bexley team. I might be a homer, but if they get in I think they could win a game or two... Anything more than that might be asking a lot this season. Ready is incredibly young, talent wise.

Not Coach Cross fault, but Ready's schedule is embarrassing. They're going to get killed by Loudonville and Hartley and the other teams on their schedule are just plain terrible. No margin for error. And I'm hearing that one of the teams on Ready's remaining schedule refuses to play them leaving them with only 9 games?

Whoever made that schedule really let that team down.

Anything more to this? If this is true, it will help Ready's chances and someone is going to be upset in Region 21.

[tiger_pound_mom]

I too am interested if this is true.. I had not heard anything about a team wanting to drop Ready.