Region 21

[Crab's Brother]

BRF,

Could you give me a rundown on how you think some of the defeated opponents for Ready will finish their seasons?

Will Whitehall win 5?

Will Harding win at all?

Know anything about DPECP?

[tiger_pound_mom]

Whitehall definitely has a shot at 5 wins this season. I wouldn't bet on it but they could surprise me. This Whitehall team has a realistic shot in every game the rest of the season as they showed last week in beating an undefeated Bexley. If I had to guess though, I would go with 4-6. Whitehall lacks discipline and that will cost them.

Marion Harding won't win a game.

If I had to take a guess at who is wanting to drop Ready, its the team from Detroit. My knowledge is limited but I don't see Ready struggling to defeat them IF they still agree to come down.

Fun Fact: If Detroit is the team and they do drop Ready, technically Ready will have only 1 home game this season.

The team that scares me is Bellaire. While they are 1-4, this is a team that is much better than their record indicates. If Ready goes 7-3 I don't see them missing the playoffs. 6-4 and there is no chance. No wiggle room here. I wouldn't count Ready out against Loudonville either yet. I'm not sure why no one is giving them a chance in that game. Stranger things have happened than a team who is 16-3 in the last 2 years beating Loudonville.

In my opinion, I don't see Grandview as a legitimate threat in this region. They were taken to the woodshed by Bexley and most recently played a relatively tight game with Academy. I would love to see Ready matchup with Grandview in the first round.

[tiger_pound_mom]

This could be totally wrong, but I see this region as Valley's to lose. I think Ready and Fredericktown could have something to say about it but this Ready team is much more beatable than last season. I'll throw Fredericktown in there bc of their gaudy record come the end of the season but the Freddies have never beaten Ready (to my knowledge) even in a year when Ready was waay down. Last time they met in the playoffs Ready was up 35-0 before the Freddies scored a junk time TD. I imagine Valley would be able to handle them as well.

This is a prediction that could go totally wrong but with no Newark Catholic or Bellaire this year I think it lines up well for Valley.

[Crab's Brother]

Whitehall definitely has a shot at 5 wins this season. I wouldn't bet on it but they could surprise me. This Whitehall team has a realistic shot in every game the rest of the season as they showed last week in beating an undefeated Bexley. If I had to guess though, I would go with 4-6. Whitehall lacks discipline and that will cost them.

Marion Harding won't win a game.

If I had to take a guess at who is wanting to drop Ready, its the team from Detroit. My knowledge is limited but I don't see Ready struggling to defeat them IF they still agree to come down.

Fun Fact: If Detroit is the team and they do drop Ready, technically Ready will have only 1 home game this season.

The team that scares me is Bellaire. While they are 1-4, this is a team that is much better than their record indicates. If Ready goes 7-3 I don't see them missing the playoffs. 6-4 and there is no chance. No wiggle room here. I wouldn't count Ready out against Loudonville either yet. I'm not sure why no one is giving them a chance in that game. Stranger things have happened than a team who is 16-3 in the last 2 years beating Loudonville.

In my opinion, I don't see Grandview as a legitimate threat in this region. They were taken to the woodshed by Bexley and most recently played a relatively tight game with Academy. I would love to see Ready matchup with Grandview in the first round.

Thanks for the input.

I have went through 8 teams so far doing what I can to project out the rest of their seasons and their opponents seasons. Here is what I have for Ready:

Whitehall 5-5
Academy 4-5
Loudon 2-8
Whetstone 3-7
Harding 0-10
Bellaire 2-8

I put the team from Detroit down as winning out until they play Ready. I have no clue on that one. At those figures I have Ready at 12.78 final average. Now I have that projected with losses to Loudonville and Hartley, so obviously a win in either of those games would change everything for Ready. Also, were the Detroit game to be "cancelled" and not "forfeited" that would drop Ready's average in my projections to 11.69.

Of the 8 teams I have "projected" Ready's average is by far the worst. I am going to finish the rest of the Region here in a bit but this is what I have now.

Valley

10-0 - 28.1
9-1 - 24.1
8-2 - 20.9

Fredricktown

10-0 - 22.00
9-1 - 18.15

Grandview

9-1 - 21.17
8-2 - 17.79

Centerburg

8-2 - 15.45

Ready

7-3 - 12.78


Coal Grove

7-3 - 13.05


Monroe Central

8-2 - 15.72


I still need to run through the games for Ridgewood and Nelsonville but I am fairly certain a Ridgewood win over TCC this week would finish them ahead of Ready. The Nelsonville number will be close as well.

[Crab's Brother]

Whoops....I left off Oak Hill


I have them at 8-2 and 14.36 final average.

[tiger_pound_mom]

Playing 9 games typically helps a team. Why would it hurt Ready?

[Crab's Brother]

Playing 9 games typically helps a team. Why would it hurt Ready?

Because in my projection I had the Michigan team with 4 wins.

[Crab's Brother]

I am going to take a guess at how the final 8 may look.

Here is my best guess for the final 10 teams that appear in contention:

1. Valley (28.1/24.1/20.9) (10-0/9-1/8-2)
2. Fredericktown (22.0) (10-0)
3. Grandview (16.08) (7-3)
4. Nelsonville (15.80) (7-3)
5. Monroe Central (15.72) (8-2)
6. Centerburg (15.45) (8-2)
7. Ridgewood (14.80) (9-1)
8. Oak Hill (14.36) (8-2)

9.Coal Grove (13.05) (7-3)
10. Ready (12.78) (7-3)

Grove and Ready are very big Tuscarawas Central Catholic fans tonight. They appear to be the last hurdle for Ridgewood to get to 9-1 and wrap up a spot. Oak Hill is not losing again with the schedule they play. I think it will take an upset to get either Grove or Ready into the final 8.

[tiger_pound_mom]

Do you know what differs between you and Drew Pasteur who has Ready finishing with the #8 seed?

[Crab's Brother]

I believe even if Valley were to only beat Waverly and South Point, they will still host a first round game. That is unless Fleming County or Coal Grove were to completely fall apart.

I think Fredricktown will host even with a loss to Centerburg.

Grandview is the wildcard. They could lose to Madison Plains and West Jeff and still host.

Nelsonville should finish 4-1 and Monroe Central should win out. They will be real close in that 4-5 range depending on what some of MC's opponents do.

Centerburg appears to only have one more test left and that is Fredericktown. A win there and they would host. I believe the winner of that game is the only team with a chance to pass even an 8-2 Valley. And I don't think 9-1 Centerburg would pass 8-2 Valley.

Ridgewood's playoff start tonight. Lose to TCC and they are out.

Oak Hill will not lose. They should be comfortably in.

[Crab's Brother]

Do you know what differs between you and Drew Pasteur who has Ready finishing with the #8 seed?

Our number come out pretty close. I have them at 12.78 and he is 12.94.

The biggest difference is in the other teams.

For example....Who does he have Fredericktown losing to? Centerburg? And then has Centerburg losing to someone else? I am not sure how he figures that.


Drew has Nelsonville at 15.35 points at 7 wins. I have them win 7 wins and 15.80. He has them as favorites in every game but Athens, so something doesn't jive there.

He has Ridgewood as a favorite to win out and at 9-1 he has them at 15.30 points. Yet they aren't on his list.

I am not sure the model he uses, but I just pick games on a per game basis and do the math. He is using a much larger algorithm to make his predictions.

[tiger_pound_mom]

Thanks for the insight!

[CN2]

Monroe has to play good ball tonight. Magnolia is a good ball club. Their opening week 1 point loss was the #1 ranked team in WV. They then came back week 2 and knocked off #6 Greenbrier West.

Monroe Central had there way with Wheeling Central in a scrimmage which defeated Magnolia last week 8-7. My opinion is you may want to show up and watch this one tonight.

[Crab's Brother]

Monroe has to play good ball tonight. Magnolia is a good ball club. Their opening week 1 point loss was the #1 ranked team in WV. They then came back week 2 and knocked off #6 Greenbrier West.

Monroe Central had there way with Wheeling Central in a scrimmage which defeated Magnolia last week 8-7. My opinion is you may want to show up and watch this one tonight.

Well.....Woodsfield is 181 miles from Lucasville, so how about I go watch the Indians and you show up there and keep us updated? :122245 :122245

[CN2]

I'll be in the end zone as always. I'll keep you updated!

[CN2]

Crabs, who do you see finishing higher, Nelsonville York at 7-3 or Monroe at 8-2.

[Crab's Brother]

Crabs, who do you see finishing higher, Nelsonville York at 7-3 or Monroe at 8-2.

I have Nelsonville by a hair.

How should Magnolia finish? I have them 5-4? Is that off? If they will be better than that, then you could probably move MC ahead of NY. I think that one will be very close.

[CN2]

I'd say you are right on the record Crabs. Chance that Monroe & Valley tangle this year.

[CN2]

MC takes their first lead with 2:04 left in the game.

MC 25
Magnolia 24

[CN2]

Monroe blocks FG inside the 10!! Unreal game!!