EasternDspy wrote:Fantastic50.net
Ok?
Green Beagle wrote:biggest problem with having WV teams on your schedule is that you will not get their last game credit since they are a week behind us. Is that correct? They play their last game the first week of our playoffs.selonmc wrote:I think for Drew Pasteur's projections on Monroe Central it has to do with their game against Magnolia (WV). I've emailed Drew before, a great guy by the way, and I can never understand exactly how he figures out of state opponents in his projections.
I know for his strength of schedule ratings and all of that he ignores out of state opponents which always hoses MC because Magnolia is usually a top team in WV.
So I know that Crab is predicting Magnolia's last 3 games in his projections, but I don't know if Drew does. His response to emails from previous years seems to indicate there is no real math behind it. Meaning since Magnolia is 2-4 his calcs are only estimating one more win for Magnolia where in reality they probably will win at least 2 of the 3.
I think that is a hole in Drew Pasteur's numbers.
Up until last year when I noticed you doing it I use to do the exact same thing that you are doing for MC's region. It's hard and takes a lot of time and I think you are doing a great job.Crab's brother wrote:Not a problem.MCdude wrote:Crabs, can you post Monroe Centrals opponents schedule projections that you've put together?
I have:
Union Local (4-6) (Beating Bellaire) (4.5/18)
Shadyside ----------------------------
River (4-6) (Beating Shenandoah and Buckeye Trail) (4/15)
Caldwell ----------------------------
Fort Frye (7-3) (Beating Shenandoah and Rosecrans) (4/25.5)
Magnolia (5-4) (Winning out and week 10 not counting) (4.5/22.5)
Shenandoah (0-10) (4 1st level)
Barnsville (2-8) (Beating Conotton Valley) (4/7.5)
Frontier (7-3) (Beating Valley WV and River) (3.5/26)
Buckeye Trail (3-7) (Beating West Muskingum) (4/12.5)
So, at 8-2 I have MC with 32.5 1st level and 127 2nd level points. The Noles have a 99 divisor so I come up with a final average of 16.078.
So, if I have successfully predicted the approximately 150 games remaining that will affect this region, I have MC hosting Centerburg. :122245 :122245
Crab's brother wrote:MCdude wrote:Crabs, can you post Monroe Centrals opponents schedule projections that you've put together?
So, if I have successfully predicted the approximately 150 games remaining that will affect this region, I have MC hosting Centerburg. :122245 :122245
selonmc wrote:Crab's brother wrote:MCdude wrote:Crabs, can you post Monroe Centrals opponents schedule projections that you've put together?
So, if I have successfully predicted the approximately 150 games remaining that will affect this region, I have MC hosting Centerburg. :122245 :122245
What is awesome about predicting the remaining 150 games as you mentioned is that the vast majority doesn't matter. They're conference games that whomever wins doesn't matter because the team you are analyzing has beaten both. Also, as you have found out, it often comes down to a wildcard game that nobody suspects. To think playoff fates and positioning can come down to a week 10 game between 2 3-win teams is great. But I've seen that happen.
selonmc wrote:Crab's brother wrote:MCdude wrote:Crabs, can you post Monroe Centrals opponents schedule projections that you've put together?
So, if I have successfully predicted the approximately 150 games remaining that will affect this region, I have MC hosting Centerburg. :122245 :122245
What is awesome about predicting the remaining 150 games as you mentioned is that the vast majority doesn't matter. They're conference games that whomever wins doesn't matter because the team you are analyzing has beaten both. Also, as you have found out, it often comes down to a wildcard game that nobody suspects. To think playoff fates and positioning can come down to a week 10 game between 2 3-win teams is great. But I've seen that happen.
Jason Vorhees wrote:It would work out ideally for Oak Hill if that was the case. However, by the looks of Northwest' schedule, they may only lose one more game, potentially to Oak Hill. They have already beaten Symmes, and Symmes beat East. So, Northwest (by this standard) should beat East. Then again, you never know what could happen. I think Northwest beats East and River Valley (which, in turn, hurts Oak Hill in the long run due to Northwest being bigger than East by divisional breakdown) and gets their first winning season in recent memory. Crab, you may know this; when is the last time Northwest had a winning season, or even a season over .500? By drew's calculation's, Oak Hill may be hosting. However, it could be a quick exit if they draw Centerburg, who has only lost to two 7-0 teams, those being Fredericktown and Marion Pleasant. If you know Northwest's last winning season, that would be great to know. This particular Region forum has been insightful, pleasant and extremely classy.
Jason Vorhees wrote:It would work out ideally for Oak Hill if that was the case. However, by the looks of Northwest' schedule, they may only lose one more game, potentially to Oak Hill. They have already beaten Symmes, and Symmes beat East. So, Northwest (by this standard) should beat East. Then again, you never know what could happen. I think Northwest beats East and River Valley (which, in turn, hurts Oak Hill in the long run due to Northwest being bigger than East by divisional breakdown) and gets their first winning season in recent memory. Crab, you may know this; when is the last time Northwest had a winning season, or even a season over .500? By drew's calculation's, Oak Hill may be hosting. However, it could be a quick exit if they draw Centerburg, who has only lost to two 7-0 teams, those being Fredericktown and Marion Pleasant. If you know Northwest's last winning season, that would be great to know. This particular Region forum has been insightful, pleasant and extremely classy.
selonmc wrote:Jason Vorhees wrote:It would work out ideally for Oak Hill if that was the case. However, by the looks of Northwest' schedule, they may only lose one more game, potentially to Oak Hill. They have already beaten Symmes, and Symmes beat East. So, Northwest (by this standard) should beat East. Then again, you never know what could happen. I think Northwest beats East and River Valley (which, in turn, hurts Oak Hill in the long run due to Northwest being bigger than East by divisional breakdown) and gets their first winning season in recent memory. Crab, you may know this; when is the last time Northwest had a winning season, or even a season over .500? By drew's calculation's, Oak Hill may be hosting. However, it could be a quick exit if they draw Centerburg, who has only lost to two 7-0 teams, those being Fredericktown and Marion Pleasant. If you know Northwest's last winning season, that would be great to know. This particular Region forum has been insightful, pleasant and extremely classy.
Northwest's last 5-5 season was 2000.
My guess at their last above .500 season would be 1994, but I don't know that to be fact.
dses wrote:Great insight. Love this thread, easily my favorite site when it comes to HS football and if it wasn't for internet porn might be my favorite site all together.... ha! just kidding.
For some reason I find myself rooting for West Jefferson this week but not sure if I should be?
Crabs are there any scenarios where Centerburg can win out and luck into a home playoff game or has that ship sailed?
Thank you sir, I appreciate the infoCrab's brother wrote:dses wrote:Great insight. Love this thread, easily my favorite site when it comes to HS football and if it wasn't for internet porn might be my favorite site all together.... ha! just kidding.
For some reason I find myself rooting for West Jefferson this week but not sure if I should be?
Crabs are there any scenarios where Centerburg can win out and luck into a home playoff game or has that ship sailed?
No way has that shipped sailed!
I think your Trojans are huge fans of West Jeff, Madison Plains, Northwest, Vinton County, and anyone that plays Magnolia WV.
I could easily see CB finishing up to 3rd in the region.