Region 21

[Crab's Brother]

Fantastic50.net

Ok?

[EasternDspy]

I was telling mcdude because he's new. You do great work as well.

[selonmc]

I think for Drew Pasteur's projections on Monroe Central it has to do with their game against Magnolia (WV). I've emailed Drew before, a great guy by the way, and I can never understand exactly how he figures out of state opponents in his projections.

I know for his strength of schedule ratings and all of that he ignores out of state opponents which always hoses MC because Magnolia is usually a top team in WV.

So I know that Crab is predicting Magnolia's last 3 games in his projections, but I don't know if Drew does. His response to emails from previous years seems to indicate there is no real math behind it. Meaning since Magnolia is 2-4 his calcs are only estimating one more win for Magnolia where in reality they probably will win at least 2 of the 3.

I think that is a hole in Drew Pasteur's numbers.

biggest problem with having WV teams on your schedule is that you will not get their last game credit since they are a week behind us. Is that correct? They play their last game the first week of our playoffs.

Yes, but the calculation does its best to make up for that open week. The level 2 divisor will go down. The net effect is about +/- 0.2 points to an Ohio team's final point total (for a D5 WV school). Which means if the WV team wins that final game (and you had beaten that WV team) then your team's point total will be .2 points less than it could have been. If they lose that final game then it would be about .2 points higher than it could have been.

In a tight points race it could make a difference.

[selonmc]

Crabs, can you post Monroe Centrals opponents schedule projections that you've put together?

Not a problem.

I have:

Union Local (4-6) (Beating Bellaire) (4.5/18)

Shadyside ----------------------------

River (4-6) (Beating Shenandoah and Buckeye Trail) (4/15)

Caldwell ----------------------------

Fort Frye (7-3) (Beating Shenandoah and Rosecrans) (4/25.5)

Magnolia (5-4) (Winning out and week 10 not counting) (4.5/22.5)

Shenandoah (0-10) (4 1st level)

Barnsville (2-8) (Beating Conotton Valley) (4/7.5)

Frontier (7-3) (Beating Valley WV and River) (3.5/26)

Buckeye Trail (3-7) (Beating West Muskingum) (4/12.5)


So, at 8-2 I have MC with 32.5 1st level and 127 2nd level points. The Noles have a 99 divisor so I come up with a final average of 16.078.

So, if I have successfully predicted the approximately 150 games remaining that will affect this region, I have MC hosting Centerburg. :122245 :122245

Up until last year when I noticed you doing it I use to do the exact same thing that you are doing for MC's region. It's hard and takes a lot of time and I think you are doing a great job.

So I think I see the difference. Drew is predicting Bellaire beating Union Local, and West Muskingum beating Trail. Also, doing a quick calpreps projection they have St Marys WV by 23 over Magnolia. When Calpreps predicts a spread over 10pts they are darn near dead on.

Drew's predictions are less than 3 points for the other two, so they could go either way. Knowing the history of Bellaire/Union Local I would predict Bellaire just because they usually beat them. All in all, I probably would have MC closer to Drew's projection. I probably would have Bellaire over UL, West Musky over Trail, and Magnolia winning 2 more games

[selonmc]

Crabs, can you post Monroe Centrals opponents schedule projections that you've put together?

So, if I have successfully predicted the approximately 150 games remaining that will affect this region, I have MC hosting Centerburg. :122245 :122245

What is awesome about predicting the remaining 150 games as you mentioned is that the vast majority doesn't matter. They're conference games that whomever wins doesn't matter because the team you are analyzing has beaten both. Also, as you have found out, it often comes down to a wildcard game that nobody suspects. To think playoff fates and positioning can come down to a week 10 game between 2 3-win teams is great. But I've seen that happen.

[Crab's Brother]

Crabs, can you post Monroe Centrals opponents schedule projections that you've put together?

So, if I have successfully predicted the approximately 150 games remaining that will affect this region, I have MC hosting Centerburg. :122245 :122245

What is awesome about predicting the remaining 150 games as you mentioned is that the vast majority doesn't matter. They're conference games that whomever wins doesn't matter because the team you are analyzing has beaten both. Also, as you have found out, it often comes down to a wildcard game that nobody suspects. To think playoff fates and positioning can come down to a week 10 game between 2 3-win teams is great. But I've seen that happen.

While the conference thing is true, there are some big exceptions and they affect at least 2 contenders in region 21. Take Nelsonville for example...they basically want Vinton county to go winless in the league because they are D3. So, the Buckeyes grab an extra .1 on their total when Alexander or Wellston beats VC. Same is true for Oak Hill having Northwest in their league. The Oaks would be better off if all their D7 opponents beat D5 Northwest. Looks like .1 could be a huge deal down the stretch.

[Crab's Brother]

Crabs, can you post Monroe Centrals opponents schedule projections that you've put together?

So, if I have successfully predicted the approximately 150 games remaining that will affect this region, I have MC hosting Centerburg. :122245 :122245

What is awesome about predicting the remaining 150 games as you mentioned is that the vast majority doesn't matter. They're conference games that whomever wins doesn't matter because the team you are analyzing has beaten both. Also, as you have found out, it often comes down to a wildcard game that nobody suspects. To think playoff fates and positioning can come down to a week 10 game between 2 3-win teams is great. But I've seen that happen.

While the conference thing is true, there are some big exceptions and they affect at least 2 contenders in region 21. Take Nelsonville for example...they basically want Vinton county to go winless in the league because they are D3. So, the Buckeyes grab an extra .1 on their total when Alexander or Wellston beats VC. Same is true for Oak Hill having Northwest in their league. The Oaks would be better off if all their D7 opponents beat D5 Northwest. Looks like .1 could be a huge deal down the stretch.

[Jason Vorhees]

It would work out ideally for Oak Hill if that was the case. However, by the looks of Northwest' schedule, they may only lose one more game, potentially to Oak Hill. They have already beaten Symmes, and Symmes beat East. So, Northwest (by this standard) should beat East. Then again, you never know what could happen. I think Northwest beats East and River Valley (which, in turn, hurts Oak Hill in the long run due to Northwest being bigger than East by divisional breakdown) and gets their first winning season in recent memory. Crab, you may know this; when is the last time Northwest had a winning season, or even a season over .500? By drew's calculation's, Oak Hill may be hosting. However, it could be a quick exit if they draw Centerburg, who has only lost to two 7-0 teams, those being Fredericktown and Marion Pleasant. If you know Northwest's last winning season, that would be great to know. This particular Region forum has been insightful, pleasant and extremely classy.

[Crab's Brother]

It would work out ideally for Oak Hill if that was the case. However, by the looks of Northwest' schedule, they may only lose one more game, potentially to Oak Hill. They have already beaten Symmes, and Symmes beat East. So, Northwest (by this standard) should beat East. Then again, you never know what could happen. I think Northwest beats East and River Valley (which, in turn, hurts Oak Hill in the long run due to Northwest being bigger than East by divisional breakdown) and gets their first winning season in recent memory. Crab, you may know this; when is the last time Northwest had a winning season, or even a season over .500? By drew's calculation's, Oak Hill may be hosting. However, it could be a quick exit if they draw Centerburg, who has only lost to two 7-0 teams, those being Fredericktown and Marion Pleasant. If you know Northwest's last winning season, that would be great to know. This particular Region forum has been insightful, pleasant and extremely classy.

I have no idea on their last winning season. I know they went 5-5 in 2000, but I am guessing maybe a Brandon Doss team in the late 90's could have squeezed out 6 wins.

The Mohawks getting some wins is great, but as discussed, it is not ideal for Oak Hill when they are locked in a very close harbin race. The Oaks are going to be huge Mohawk fans in week 10 when they play River Valley. The difference in those 2nd level points for Oak Hill and Nelsonville could be huge.

[selonmc]

It would work out ideally for Oak Hill if that was the case. However, by the looks of Northwest' schedule, they may only lose one more game, potentially to Oak Hill. They have already beaten Symmes, and Symmes beat East. So, Northwest (by this standard) should beat East. Then again, you never know what could happen. I think Northwest beats East and River Valley (which, in turn, hurts Oak Hill in the long run due to Northwest being bigger than East by divisional breakdown) and gets their first winning season in recent memory. Crab, you may know this; when is the last time Northwest had a winning season, or even a season over .500? By drew's calculation's, Oak Hill may be hosting. However, it could be a quick exit if they draw Centerburg, who has only lost to two 7-0 teams, those being Fredericktown and Marion Pleasant. If you know Northwest's last winning season, that would be great to know. This particular Region forum has been insightful, pleasant and extremely classy.

Northwest's last 5-5 season was 2000.

My guess at their last above .500 season would be 1994, but I don't know that to be fact.

[Jason Vorhees]

It could mean the difference between a 4 seed and an 8 seed. This region is closest one I've seen throughout the state, particularly 3-8 seeds.

[Crab's Brother]

It would work out ideally for Oak Hill if that was the case. However, by the looks of Northwest' schedule, they may only lose one more game, potentially to Oak Hill. They have already beaten Symmes, and Symmes beat East. So, Northwest (by this standard) should beat East. Then again, you never know what could happen. I think Northwest beats East and River Valley (which, in turn, hurts Oak Hill in the long run due to Northwest being bigger than East by divisional breakdown) and gets their first winning season in recent memory. Crab, you may know this; when is the last time Northwest had a winning season, or even a season over .500? By drew's calculation's, Oak Hill may be hosting. However, it could be a quick exit if they draw Centerburg, who has only lost to two 7-0 teams, those being Fredericktown and Marion Pleasant. If you know Northwest's last winning season, that would be great to know. This particular Region forum has been insightful, pleasant and extremely classy.

Northwest's last 5-5 season was 2000.

My guess at their last above .500 season would be 1994, but I don't know that to be fact.

Looking at old computer point standings, mathematically, I am guessing Northwest went 6-4 in 1994.

[selonmc]

That's where I got my info too. There was a season in the late 90's they could have, but the first level points didn't seem to add up to 6 wins, but I don't know their schedule then.

[Jason Vorhees]

I'm not degrading their football program by any means; rather, making it known of they do win 6 games, it would be a huge deal for Northwest.

[nutronron2012]

Edit

[Crab's Brother]

Big week 8 games:

Grandview Heights @ West Jeff
Alexander @ Nelsonville
Oak Hill @ Symmes Valley
Belpre @ Parkersburg Catholic
Fort Frye @ Caldwell
Coal Grove at Chesapeake

"2nd level games" to watch:

Ashland @ Clearfork (Affects Fredricktown)
East Carter @ Fleming County (Valley)
Fairland @ Rock Hill (Affects Valley and Oak Hill)
Millersport @ Grove City Christian (Grandview)
Waynedale @ Dalton (Ridgewood)
Rosecrans @ Riverview (Ridgewood)
St. Mary's (WV) @ Magnolia (WV) (Monroe Central)
South Gallia @ Wahama (Belpre)

[INDIAN58]

Great insight. Love this thread, easily my favorite site when it comes to HS football and if it wasn't for internet porn might be my favorite site all together.... ha! just kidding.

For some reason I find myself rooting for West Jefferson this week but not sure if I should be?

Crabs brother are there any scenarios where Centerburg can win out and luck into a home playoff game or has that ship sailed?

[Crab's Brother]

Great insight. Love this thread, easily my favorite site when it comes to HS football and if it wasn't for internet porn might be my favorite site all together.... ha! just kidding.

For some reason I find myself rooting for West Jefferson this week but not sure if I should be?

Crabs are there any scenarios where Centerburg can win out and luck into a home playoff game or has that ship sailed?

No way has that shipped sailed!

I think your Trojans are huge fans of West Jeff, Madison Plains, Northwest, Vinton County, and anyone that plays Magnolia WV.

I could easily see CB finishing up to 3rd in the region.

[INDIAN58]

Great insight. Love this thread, easily my favorite site when it comes to HS football and if it wasn't for internet porn might be my favorite site all together.... ha! just kidding.

For some reason I find myself rooting for West Jefferson this week but not sure if I should be?

Crabs are there any scenarios where Centerburg can win out and luck into a home playoff game or has that ship sailed?

No way has that shipped sailed!

I think your Trojans are huge fans of West Jeff, Madison Plains, Northwest, Vinton County, and anyone that plays Magnolia WV.

I could easily see CB finishing up to 3rd in the region.

Thank you sir, I appreciate the info

[getright]

what would have to happen in order for Monroe Central to be seeded at #5 or higher? I saw early in the thread Monroe Central was projected a #4 seed.. What are the chances of that still happening? Monroe will more than likely win out and finish at 8-2.