Top half of NCAA bracket expected to be stable
By Joe Lunardi
Special to ESPN.com
(Archive)
Updated: December 17, 2007, 1:23 PM ET
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I know what you're thinking.
How reliable is an NCAA Tournament bracket projection before Christmas? The answer: We're already halfway home.
History suggests the top half of this bracket will be fairly stable. While projected seeding can change dramatically among the top 30-35 teams to appear here -- after the first line or two -- no more than a handful will actually miss this year's Dance. That's because the large majority have already compiled a nonconference profile more than suitable for favorable at-large consideration.
After that top group, the remainder of the at-large pool is no more than an educated guess at this point. How do you separate an Ohio State ("Last Four In") from a Purdue ("Last Four Out")? A Florida (projected No. 9 seed) from a Mississippi ("Last Four Out")? A Virginia (the last at-large here) from a North Carolina State ("Next Four Out")? Or even a UMass ("Last Four Out") from a Dayton ("Next Four Out")?
The truth is we must wait until the beginning of conference play and beyond to more accurately make these assessments. In the meantime, we are judging quality wins on a very fluid basis. In the case of UMass and Dayton, for instance, the Flyers winning at Louisville would appear to be a separator between these two teams. Instead, with the Cardinals floundering, the Minutemen winning at Syracuse and BC take precedence.
Next to none of this guessing will be required once teams in the lower half of the at-large pool start playing head-to-head. For now, outside the top 30 or so, don't call the travel agent just yet.
A few other notes on this bracket follow:
• North Carolina is the No. 1 overall seed, followed by Memphis, Texas and Kansas. I still believe Memphis has about a 1-in-3 chance to finish the regular season undefeated.
• It's very hard to separate the cluster of Big East teams (Georgetown, Pitt and Marquette) on the second and third lines. The Hoyas have been the least-tested to this point, but that will change on Saturday when they travel to Memphis.
• You'll note a second Horizon League team (Valparaiso) in addition to nationally ranked Butler. That's because Valpo leads the league at 2-0 and owns an RPI tiebreaker over Illinois-Chicago, also 2-0.
• Similar automatic bids were awarded in this bracket to Providence and Boston College, the latter of which "leads" the ACC with a 1-0 record. The Friars get their spot due to the best RPI in the Big East at the time of this projection.
• Other "automatic" qualifiers, based on very early conference results, are: George Mason, 1-0 CAA (with RPI tiebreaker over James Madison, VCU and UNC Wilmington), Siena (2-0 MAAC), Hampton (1-0 MEAC, with RPI tiebreaker over Morgan State and three others), Mount St. Mary's (2-0 NEC, with RPI tiebreaker over Sacred Heart), Austin Peay (2-0 OVC, with RPI tiebreaker over SE Missouri State), Elon (3-0 SoCon, ahead of 2-0 teams Georgia Southern, Chattanooga and Davidson), Oral Roberts (2-0 Summit, with RPI tiebreaker over IPFW) and Arkansas-Little Rock (1-0 Sun Belt, with RPI tiebreaker over UL Lafayette).
• One-bid conferences with no games played to date are represented in this bracket by their current RPI leader. Other presumed conference winners such as Southern Illinois (MVC), Davidson (SoCon) and Western Kentucky (Sun Belt) are -- at least for the moment -- on the wrong end of procedures that would be followed if we were actually at Selection Sunday.
Until then, may Santa leave an at-large bid in all of your stockings! Ho, ho, ho…
Joe Lunardi is the resident bracketologist for ESPN, ESPN.com and ESPN Radio. Comments may be sent to [email protected].
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Andy Katz's weeklywatch
Robert Vaden, Cornhuskers stand out with big performances
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Bruce Thorson/US Presswire
Nebraska's win over No. 16 Oregon was its second over a ranked opponent under coach Doc Sadler.
Player of the Week: Robert Vaden, UAB
By Andy Katz
Last week: 33 points on 10-for-18 shooting (7-for-11 from 3-point range), with three assists and four steals in a 79-76 win at Kentucky
In the preseason, UAB coach Mike Davis said he had one of the top shooters in the country in Robert Vaden. He said Vaden was playing sensationally, and he anticipated a monster season. Vaden had been solid early on this season, but he didn't have that All American type game. Until Saturday at Louisville.
Against Kentucky, Vaden had one of those Kevin Durant-like games from a season ago. Vaden was absolutely sensational in scoring a career-high 33 points to lead UAB to a 79-76 victory over the Wildcats. Vaden's second half (in which he scored 28 points) was nearly perfect. He went 10-for-18 from the field, 7-for-11 on 3s (and at least one of those was way, way deep) and 6-for-6 from the free-throw line, and he had four steals.
Vaden has had a few impressive outings, scoring 25 points against Jacksonville and 21 in a loss to Rhode Island. But none of those games held the same importance as Saturday's win over Kentucky. It's a safe bet that Freedom Hall probably isn't Davis' favorite venue. When Davis coached at Indiana, he had a classic meltdown a few years ago at Freedom Hall, running on the court to question a call during a game against Kentucky. For Davis and Vaden, a former Hoosier from Indianapolis, this homecoming couldn't have been sweeter.
Maybe most importantly, the win improves UAB to 8-4. UAB lost point guard Paul Delaney to a season-ending knee injury on Nov. 17, so Vaden has to carry this squad. He did Saturday.
Team of the Week: Nebraska
Andy Katz
Last week: beat Savannah State 82-37 on Tuesday; beat then-No. 16 Oregon 88-79 in overtime on Saturday
This may come as a surprise during a light week of major games. But bear with me for a few moments. Nebraska's 88-79 overtime win over Oregon gives the Huskers something to put on their résumé. Nebraska (8-2) is now 2-0 against the Pac-10. The Huskers also beat Arizona State on Dec. 2 in Lincoln.
Nebraska's two losses -- at rival Creighton and at Western Kentucky -- were legitimately difficult road games against mid-majors. So let's put this Oregon win in perspective. If you concede the top three spots in the Big 12 to Kansas, Texas and Texas A&M, then you could argue that Nebraska is in the mix with Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Missouri and Baylor for the No. 4 spot. Nebraska will need wins that make it stand out. Beating Oregon, assuming the Ducks stay in the race in the Pac-10, will certainly help its case.
Nebraska should be 11-2 when it opens its Big 12 season at home against Kansas on Jan. 12. The Big 12 schedule isn't kind, though, with late-season road games at Texas, Texas A&M and Oklahoma State -- which makes the Huskers' win over Oregon even more crucial.
The Huskers can always count on center Aleks Maric to produce (23 points against Oregon), and they are now getting pretty good balance on the perimeter. Guard Ryan Anderson lit up the Ducks with 21 points (8-of-8 at the free-throw line). An impressive stat was how the Huskers took care of the ball (seven turnovers) and forced 18 Oregon turnovers and picked up 12 steals. If Nebraska can defend (yes the Huskers gave up 14 3s), then it has a chance to be a factor in the middle of the Big 12 pack.
3-Point Shot
Fran Fraschilla
I had the chance to see three Top 25 teams in Nashville this weekend. Here are some impressions:
1. No. 21 Vanderbilt
It's clear that while Aussie freshman big man A.J. Ogilvy is off to an impressive start and is the front-runner for SEC Freshman of the Year, Shan Foster is the straw that stirs the Commodores' drink. In addition to being a dead-eye shooter and an athletic wing player, he is a great team leader for coach Kevin Stallings. His energy at practice is contagious. With the Ogilvy-Foster inside-out punch and an improving backcourt of senior Alex Gordon and sophomore Jeremy Beal, Vandy will compete with Billy Donovan's young Florida club as the conference's second-best team behind Tennessee.
By the way, while I love Ogilvy and have seen him in international competition, my hope is that he stays another year at Vandy. He is a very fundamentally sound low-post scorer and has an Australian rules football mentality, but he needs to improve his athleticism and strength before he is ready to take on NBA centers.
2. No. 2 Memphis
Iowa State transfer Shawn Taggart may end up being John Calipari's X factor this season. The 6-foot-10 center gives the Tigers a much-needed insurance policy for Joey Dorsey's occasional meltdowns and the continued inconsistency of junior Robert Dozier. Taggart is much stronger than the player I saw in Ames, Iowa, two years ago, so he can now complement a deft touch from the perimeter with some inside scoring punch.
The Tigers' outside shooting still remains an Achilles' heel. Willie Kemp remains the only consistent weapon from behind the arc. However, when Middle Tennessee sprung some junk defenses on Calipari's club, the Tigers did not settle for the open perimeter shot but instead pounded the ball inside. It's obvious that the Memphis coaching staff went to school after the near debacle versus USC's triangle-and-two defense.
The Derrick Rose I watched on Saturday is not yet playing with the confidence I saw when he played in high school, and that's good news for Calipari. While the Tigers are undefeated, they are still a work in progress and, like Rose, there is much room for growth offensively. Until that happens, the Tigers will rely on a typically smothering defense to win games -- and lots of them.
3. No. 11 Tennessee
Like Memphis, the Vols have not hit their stride yet. Reigning SEC Player of the Year Chris Lofton is off to a slow start, and 6-7 sophomore Duke Crews has been sidelined indefinitely because of a heart ailment. But don't feel sorry for Bruce Pearl. Arizona transfer J.P. Prince made an impressive debut against Western Kentucky (eight points and seven rebounds in 19 minutes), and his length and athleticism is perfect for the Vols' style. He gives Pearl another two-point scorer to complement an explosive perimeter game, and Prince will be a Venus flytrap in the press.
The most stunning revelation was the development of 6-10, 270-pound Vols freshman Brian Williams, who had a career-high 16 points and 14 rebounds. Williams, who has lost more than 100 pounds in the past year, is a Sean May clone with great hands, and he's light on his feet for someone with his girth. Pearl originally thought about redshirting Williams, who did not play high school basketball in the Bronx before attending prep school in Cincinnati. With Crews out, Williams will get an opportunity to play quality minutes as Tennessee gets ready for SEC play.
Upset Watch
By Reggie Rankin
Scouts Inc.'s Reggie Rankin takes a look at five upsets that could happen this week:
• Tuesday: Oral Roberts over Texas, ESPN Full Court, 6:30 p.m. ET
Texas' perimeter of A.J. Abrams, D.J. Augustin and Damion James -- which is combining for 50.5 points per game -- is as explosive as any in the country. They excel in Rick Barnes' wide-open, attacking half-court offense, with great spacing to allow for clear-outs and ball screens. ORU returns three starters, including 6-10 senior Shawn King (10.4 points, 6.7 rebounds). Guard Robert Jarvis leads a balanced scoring attack (16.8 points) with Portland transfer Marcus Lewis (11.2 points). The Golden Eagles are connecting on 42.7 percent of their 3-point attempts, and a physical man-to-man defensive package is executed to perfection. After beating crosstown power Tulsa and holding their own against Texas A&M and Arkansas, the Golden Eagles (6-3) could sneak up on the Horns.
• Tuesday: Georgia Tech over Kansas, ESPN, 7 p.m. ET
The Jayhawks are deep and talented, with five players averaging double figures. Mario Chalmers, Darrell Arthur, Brandon Rush and Darnell Jackson headline this team capable of making the Final Four. KU will push the ball hard in transition for easy scores. In the half court, the Jayhawks will pound it inside with some of the best high-low and ball-screen action in college basketball. So far, Georgia Tech's most notable win was in the Virgin Islands against Notre Dame. Can seniors Anthony Morrow, Jeremis Smith and Matt Causey get the Yellow Jackets' transition game in high gear on their home floor?
• Wednesday: UNC-Asheville over Tennessee, ESPN Full Court, 7:30 p.m. ET
JaJuan Smith and sharpshooter Chris Lofton lead the Vols down the home stretch of the nonconference season. Asheville senior guards Bryan Smithson and K.J. Garland are two of coach Eddie Biedenbach's four returning starters. If Asheville's experienced backcourt can make Lofton shoot contested shots and handle the relentless defensive pressure of Tennessee in Thompson-Boling Arena, the Bulldogs might hang around long enough to make it interesting.
• Friday: DePaul over Clemson, 3 p.m. ET
Leading scorer K.C. Rivers (15.9 points) and point guard Cliff Hammonds (12.1 points, 4.0 assists) patrol the perimeter, and 6-7 rebounding machine Trevor Booker (10.5 boards) gives the Tigers bite. Playing without 6-9 stud James Mays, who is out nursing a hip injury, makes Clemson vulnerable. DePaul is very capable but must improve its free-throw shooting (60.8 percent). Impact freshmen Dar Tucker and Mac Koshwal continue to gain experience and help seniors Draelon Burns and Karron Clarke. Beating Clemson on a neutral floor in Puerto Rico could give the Blue Demons a needed boost of confidence.
• Saturday: Oakland (Mich.) over Oregon, ESPNU, 9 p.m. ET
Oregon can change the scoreboard as quickly as anyone in college basketball. With five players scoring in double figures, the Ducks force teams to guard everyone on the floor. When they land in Michigan, Oakland will be fired up to welcome home Oregon leading scorer Malik Hairston (17.4 points) and long-range bomber Tajuan Porter (17.2 points), both of whom hail from Detroit. For Oakland, Derrick Nelson provides inside-out point production, preseason all-Summit League first team guard Erik Kangas is an excellent shooter, and point guard Johnathon Jones adds 14.2 points and 5.7 dimes to complete coach Greg Kampe's solid attack. If Hairston and Porter are more focused on tickets for family and friends instead of the Golden Grizzlies, then Oregon coach Ernie Kent's homecoming game for his players could backfire.
What I'm looking forward to this week
By Andy Katz
• How Kentucky handles a difficult road assignment at surging Houston on Tuesday (ESPN, 9 p.m. ET).
• Whether South Florida can continue its recent good fortune by winning at Wake Forest on Wednesday (7 p.m. ET).
• If Pitt vs. Duke on Thursday night (ESPN, 7 ET) at Madison Square Garden can live up my expectations as one of the best nonconference matchups of the season.
• If Illinois can beat pesky Miami (Ohio) at home on Thursday (7 p.m. ET) and pick up a quality win.
• If Gonzaga can handle the physicality of Oklahoma on Thursday (ESPN2, 9 p.m. ET) in Oklahoma City.
• Saturday:
This may be one of the best matchup days of the season with possible unbeaten teams meeting in Puerto Rico (Clemson vs. Ole Miss); a mega showdown in Memphis (Georgetown vs. the Tigers); another top-15 barometer game for Texas (vs. Michigan State at Auburn Hills); a spirited game in St. Louis (Illinois vs. Missouri); a solid mid-major affair (Western Kentucky vs. Southern Illinois); yet another major test for Xavier (hosting Tennessee); a rematch of the title game (Florida at Ohio State); the possible debut for Brook Lopez as Stanford plays Texas Tech (in Dallas); and a potential Rainbow Classic final involving Saint Mary's (if the Gaels get out of the bracket with Georgia) possibly facing host Hawaii.
Vaden's strong second half lifts UAB over UK
ESPN.com's Mid-Major Top 10
1. Butler
2. Xavier
3. BYU
4. Dayton
5. UMass
6. Rhode Island
7. New Orleans
8. Creighton
9. Sam Houston State
10. Wright State
Rolling, rolling, rolling …
• Vanderbilt: The 10-0 Commodores don't make it look easy, but the fact is they still win, win, win and win.
• Miami: The victory at Mississippi State should be the signal that the Canes have a legit shot to go from being picked last in the ACC to the NCAA Tournament. Miami is undefeated and its comfort level, especially with Jack McClinton leading the team, is at an all-time high under Frank Haith.
• Pitt: The Panthers easily dispatched Oklahoma State at home and look poised for a monster showdown on Thursday night against Duke at Madison Square Garden. Sam Young and DeJuan Blair are quite a 1-2 punch inside, and the guards continue to make timely shots. This may be the most interesting Pitt team to watch under Jamie Dixon.
• Kansas: After watching the Jayhawks crush Ohio on Saturday, it was hard not to think this is a potential title team.
• Butler: If it's a Butler nonconference game, then you can guarantee the Bulldogs -- 24-4 in nonconference games the past two seasons -- will be right there. Florida State was the latest victim in Indianapolis.
-- Andy Katz, ESPN.com
Pitt remains unbeaten
Now we're paying attention to …
• UMass: The Minutemen had a memorable week by winning at Boston College and holding off Toledo. UMass looks like it will be a player in the A-10.
• Arizona State: The 22-point rout of Xavier is certainly the breakthrough offensive performance the Sun Devils needed to make others stand up and take notice of them going into the Pac-10.
• Purdue: After coming close at Clemson and Missouri, the Boilermakers beat Louisville in Indianapolis.
• Oklahoma: The Sooners needed something to call their own in the nonconference season, and if Arkansas can be a player at some point in the SEC West, then the win over the Hogs may mean something in two months.
• New Orleans: The Privateers had received plenty of good PR in this space for the road wins at NC State and Tulane. But now this is serious business. They aren't going away and should be considered legit contenders for the Sun Belt crown after winning yet another road game -- this time at Colorado. Regardless of what you think of the Buffaloes, a Sun Belt team that wins at a Big 12, ACC and C-USA needs to be looked at as a contender, not a pretender, in its league.
-- Andy Katz, ESPN.com
Sooners run by Arkansas
Do you think ...
• John Beilein would like to still be at West Virginia? Beilein has had a rough go at Michigan, losing at Harvard and now at home to Central Michigan to fall to 4-7 with UCLA on deck Saturday (2 p.m. ET).
• St. John's had a joyous flight to Honolulu? Probably not, after the Red Storm lost at home to Niagara to drop their second straight game.
• George Washington coach Karl Hobbs envisioned Maureece Rice going scoreless in 14 minutes against 1-7 Binghamton in a 71-59 loss to the Bearcats? GW is off to a sputtering 3-5 start.
• Saint Louis coach Rick Majerus is a bit perplexed with his squad? The Billikens knocked off Southern Illinois after getting blown out by Kent State and Boston College.
• Rick Stansbury had any idea Mississippi State (5-5) would whiff on all its big games at home (Clemson and Miami), fail to capitalize in Anaheim (Southern Illinois and Miami-Ohio) and fall to South Alabama last week, too?
• DePaul coach Jerry Wainwright is waiting for Wilson Chandler (drafted by the New York Knicks in June) to suddenly appear after the season continues to go south? The Blue Demons have lost three in a row. The first two were easier to swallow (at Kansas and to Vanderbilt at home) before Illinois-Chicago nipped them too last week.
• Jay John of Oregon State will regret scheduling a home-and-home series with Tennessee Tech? He started out the 2005-06 season at Tech and lost 90-62. Tennessee Tech returned to Corvallis on Sunday and beat the Beavers 79-62.
-- Andy Katz, ESPN.com
SLU bests Southern Illinois
Get to know ...
• Antoine Agudio, Hofstra: The Hofstra guard is leading the country in scoring (27.4 PPG) and is averaging 17.4 points in the second half of games. He helped Hofstra cool down previously hot Charlotte with 18 second-half points (6-of-6 shooting). The CAA's second-leading scorer is UNC Wilmington's T.J. Carter, who is scoring 17.3 points a game, a hair less than what Agudio averages in the second half.
• Brian Williams, Tennessee: Tennessee coach Bruce Pearl could not be more prophetic. Friday night, Pearl said he was going to look to Williams to help fill Duke Crews' role after Crews' heart condition was revealed. Williams had been seldom used but then went out and scored 16 points and grabbed 14 boards in a win over Western Kentucky in Nashville.
• The Southland Conference: Stephen F. Austin (8-1) clearly is no joke after following up a road win at Oklahoma with a road victory at San Diego. Meanwhile, Sam Houston State hasn't missed a beat, improving to 9-0 with road wins at Saint Louis and Texas Southern last week. Texas-Arlington is 8-0 with its last win coming at Wichita State.
• Wright State: Brad Brownell continues to win wherever he coaches. He did it at UNC Wilmington, and he continues to win big games at Wright State. The Raiders weren't able to follow up the Butler win with an immediate victory, losing to Bradley. But they did beat Miami (Ohio) on a Todd Brown 3-pointer with less than a second remaining.
• North Dakota State's Saul Phillips: He beat his old boss, Colorado State coach and former NDSU head man Tim Miles, 83-69 at home. NDSU has had its share of big wins, like beating Marquette and Wisconsin, in years past. And it looks like those winning ways will continue under Phillips.
-- Andy Katz, ESPN.com
Hansbrough hurt in UNC's win over Rutgers
Robert Vaden, Cornhuskers stand out with big performances
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ESPN.com
Bruce Thorson/US Presswire
Nebraska's win over No. 16 Oregon was its second over a ranked opponent under coach Doc Sadler.
Player of the Week: Robert Vaden, UAB
By Andy Katz
Last week: 33 points on 10-for-18 shooting (7-for-11 from 3-point range), with three assists and four steals in a 79-76 win at Kentucky
In the preseason, UAB coach Mike Davis said he had one of the top shooters in the country in Robert Vaden. He said Vaden was playing sensationally, and he anticipated a monster season. Vaden had been solid early on this season, but he didn't have that All American type game. Until Saturday at Louisville.
Against Kentucky, Vaden had one of those Kevin Durant-like games from a season ago. Vaden was absolutely sensational in scoring a career-high 33 points to lead UAB to a 79-76 victory over the Wildcats. Vaden's second half (in which he scored 28 points) was nearly perfect. He went 10-for-18 from the field, 7-for-11 on 3s (and at least one of those was way, way deep) and 6-for-6 from the free-throw line, and he had four steals.
Vaden has had a few impressive outings, scoring 25 points against Jacksonville and 21 in a loss to Rhode Island. But none of those games held the same importance as Saturday's win over Kentucky. It's a safe bet that Freedom Hall probably isn't Davis' favorite venue. When Davis coached at Indiana, he had a classic meltdown a few years ago at Freedom Hall, running on the court to question a call during a game against Kentucky. For Davis and Vaden, a former Hoosier from Indianapolis, this homecoming couldn't have been sweeter.
Maybe most importantly, the win improves UAB to 8-4. UAB lost point guard Paul Delaney to a season-ending knee injury on Nov. 17, so Vaden has to carry this squad. He did Saturday.
Team of the Week: Nebraska
Andy Katz
Last week: beat Savannah State 82-37 on Tuesday; beat then-No. 16 Oregon 88-79 in overtime on Saturday
This may come as a surprise during a light week of major games. But bear with me for a few moments. Nebraska's 88-79 overtime win over Oregon gives the Huskers something to put on their résumé. Nebraska (8-2) is now 2-0 against the Pac-10. The Huskers also beat Arizona State on Dec. 2 in Lincoln.
Nebraska's two losses -- at rival Creighton and at Western Kentucky -- were legitimately difficult road games against mid-majors. So let's put this Oregon win in perspective. If you concede the top three spots in the Big 12 to Kansas, Texas and Texas A&M, then you could argue that Nebraska is in the mix with Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Missouri and Baylor for the No. 4 spot. Nebraska will need wins that make it stand out. Beating Oregon, assuming the Ducks stay in the race in the Pac-10, will certainly help its case.
Nebraska should be 11-2 when it opens its Big 12 season at home against Kansas on Jan. 12. The Big 12 schedule isn't kind, though, with late-season road games at Texas, Texas A&M and Oklahoma State -- which makes the Huskers' win over Oregon even more crucial.
The Huskers can always count on center Aleks Maric to produce (23 points against Oregon), and they are now getting pretty good balance on the perimeter. Guard Ryan Anderson lit up the Ducks with 21 points (8-of-8 at the free-throw line). An impressive stat was how the Huskers took care of the ball (seven turnovers) and forced 18 Oregon turnovers and picked up 12 steals. If Nebraska can defend (yes the Huskers gave up 14 3s), then it has a chance to be a factor in the middle of the Big 12 pack.
3-Point Shot
Fran Fraschilla
I had the chance to see three Top 25 teams in Nashville this weekend. Here are some impressions:
1. No. 21 Vanderbilt
It's clear that while Aussie freshman big man A.J. Ogilvy is off to an impressive start and is the front-runner for SEC Freshman of the Year, Shan Foster is the straw that stirs the Commodores' drink. In addition to being a dead-eye shooter and an athletic wing player, he is a great team leader for coach Kevin Stallings. His energy at practice is contagious. With the Ogilvy-Foster inside-out punch and an improving backcourt of senior Alex Gordon and sophomore Jeremy Beal, Vandy will compete with Billy Donovan's young Florida club as the conference's second-best team behind Tennessee.
By the way, while I love Ogilvy and have seen him in international competition, my hope is that he stays another year at Vandy. He is a very fundamentally sound low-post scorer and has an Australian rules football mentality, but he needs to improve his athleticism and strength before he is ready to take on NBA centers.
2. No. 2 Memphis
Iowa State transfer Shawn Taggart may end up being John Calipari's X factor this season. The 6-foot-10 center gives the Tigers a much-needed insurance policy for Joey Dorsey's occasional meltdowns and the continued inconsistency of junior Robert Dozier. Taggart is much stronger than the player I saw in Ames, Iowa, two years ago, so he can now complement a deft touch from the perimeter with some inside scoring punch.
The Tigers' outside shooting still remains an Achilles' heel. Willie Kemp remains the only consistent weapon from behind the arc. However, when Middle Tennessee sprung some junk defenses on Calipari's club, the Tigers did not settle for the open perimeter shot but instead pounded the ball inside. It's obvious that the Memphis coaching staff went to school after the near debacle versus USC's triangle-and-two defense.
The Derrick Rose I watched on Saturday is not yet playing with the confidence I saw when he played in high school, and that's good news for Calipari. While the Tigers are undefeated, they are still a work in progress and, like Rose, there is much room for growth offensively. Until that happens, the Tigers will rely on a typically smothering defense to win games -- and lots of them.
3. No. 11 Tennessee
Like Memphis, the Vols have not hit their stride yet. Reigning SEC Player of the Year Chris Lofton is off to a slow start, and 6-7 sophomore Duke Crews has been sidelined indefinitely because of a heart ailment. But don't feel sorry for Bruce Pearl. Arizona transfer J.P. Prince made an impressive debut against Western Kentucky (eight points and seven rebounds in 19 minutes), and his length and athleticism is perfect for the Vols' style. He gives Pearl another two-point scorer to complement an explosive perimeter game, and Prince will be a Venus flytrap in the press.
The most stunning revelation was the development of 6-10, 270-pound Vols freshman Brian Williams, who had a career-high 16 points and 14 rebounds. Williams, who has lost more than 100 pounds in the past year, is a Sean May clone with great hands, and he's light on his feet for someone with his girth. Pearl originally thought about redshirting Williams, who did not play high school basketball in the Bronx before attending prep school in Cincinnati. With Crews out, Williams will get an opportunity to play quality minutes as Tennessee gets ready for SEC play.
Upset Watch
By Reggie Rankin
Scouts Inc.'s Reggie Rankin takes a look at five upsets that could happen this week:
• Tuesday: Oral Roberts over Texas, ESPN Full Court, 6:30 p.m. ET
Texas' perimeter of A.J. Abrams, D.J. Augustin and Damion James -- which is combining for 50.5 points per game -- is as explosive as any in the country. They excel in Rick Barnes' wide-open, attacking half-court offense, with great spacing to allow for clear-outs and ball screens. ORU returns three starters, including 6-10 senior Shawn King (10.4 points, 6.7 rebounds). Guard Robert Jarvis leads a balanced scoring attack (16.8 points) with Portland transfer Marcus Lewis (11.2 points). The Golden Eagles are connecting on 42.7 percent of their 3-point attempts, and a physical man-to-man defensive package is executed to perfection. After beating crosstown power Tulsa and holding their own against Texas A&M and Arkansas, the Golden Eagles (6-3) could sneak up on the Horns.
• Tuesday: Georgia Tech over Kansas, ESPN, 7 p.m. ET
The Jayhawks are deep and talented, with five players averaging double figures. Mario Chalmers, Darrell Arthur, Brandon Rush and Darnell Jackson headline this team capable of making the Final Four. KU will push the ball hard in transition for easy scores. In the half court, the Jayhawks will pound it inside with some of the best high-low and ball-screen action in college basketball. So far, Georgia Tech's most notable win was in the Virgin Islands against Notre Dame. Can seniors Anthony Morrow, Jeremis Smith and Matt Causey get the Yellow Jackets' transition game in high gear on their home floor?
• Wednesday: UNC-Asheville over Tennessee, ESPN Full Court, 7:30 p.m. ET
JaJuan Smith and sharpshooter Chris Lofton lead the Vols down the home stretch of the nonconference season. Asheville senior guards Bryan Smithson and K.J. Garland are two of coach Eddie Biedenbach's four returning starters. If Asheville's experienced backcourt can make Lofton shoot contested shots and handle the relentless defensive pressure of Tennessee in Thompson-Boling Arena, the Bulldogs might hang around long enough to make it interesting.
• Friday: DePaul over Clemson, 3 p.m. ET
Leading scorer K.C. Rivers (15.9 points) and point guard Cliff Hammonds (12.1 points, 4.0 assists) patrol the perimeter, and 6-7 rebounding machine Trevor Booker (10.5 boards) gives the Tigers bite. Playing without 6-9 stud James Mays, who is out nursing a hip injury, makes Clemson vulnerable. DePaul is very capable but must improve its free-throw shooting (60.8 percent). Impact freshmen Dar Tucker and Mac Koshwal continue to gain experience and help seniors Draelon Burns and Karron Clarke. Beating Clemson on a neutral floor in Puerto Rico could give the Blue Demons a needed boost of confidence.
• Saturday: Oakland (Mich.) over Oregon, ESPNU, 9 p.m. ET
Oregon can change the scoreboard as quickly as anyone in college basketball. With five players scoring in double figures, the Ducks force teams to guard everyone on the floor. When they land in Michigan, Oakland will be fired up to welcome home Oregon leading scorer Malik Hairston (17.4 points) and long-range bomber Tajuan Porter (17.2 points), both of whom hail from Detroit. For Oakland, Derrick Nelson provides inside-out point production, preseason all-Summit League first team guard Erik Kangas is an excellent shooter, and point guard Johnathon Jones adds 14.2 points and 5.7 dimes to complete coach Greg Kampe's solid attack. If Hairston and Porter are more focused on tickets for family and friends instead of the Golden Grizzlies, then Oregon coach Ernie Kent's homecoming game for his players could backfire.
What I'm looking forward to this week
By Andy Katz
• How Kentucky handles a difficult road assignment at surging Houston on Tuesday (ESPN, 9 p.m. ET).
• Whether South Florida can continue its recent good fortune by winning at Wake Forest on Wednesday (7 p.m. ET).
• If Pitt vs. Duke on Thursday night (ESPN, 7 ET) at Madison Square Garden can live up my expectations as one of the best nonconference matchups of the season.
• If Illinois can beat pesky Miami (Ohio) at home on Thursday (7 p.m. ET) and pick up a quality win.
• If Gonzaga can handle the physicality of Oklahoma on Thursday (ESPN2, 9 p.m. ET) in Oklahoma City.
• Saturday:
This may be one of the best matchup days of the season with possible unbeaten teams meeting in Puerto Rico (Clemson vs. Ole Miss); a mega showdown in Memphis (Georgetown vs. the Tigers); another top-15 barometer game for Texas (vs. Michigan State at Auburn Hills); a spirited game in St. Louis (Illinois vs. Missouri); a solid mid-major affair (Western Kentucky vs. Southern Illinois); yet another major test for Xavier (hosting Tennessee); a rematch of the title game (Florida at Ohio State); the possible debut for Brook Lopez as Stanford plays Texas Tech (in Dallas); and a potential Rainbow Classic final involving Saint Mary's (if the Gaels get out of the bracket with Georgia) possibly facing host Hawaii.
Vaden's strong second half lifts UAB over UK
ESPN.com's Mid-Major Top 10
1. Butler
2. Xavier
3. BYU
4. Dayton
5. UMass
6. Rhode Island
7. New Orleans
8. Creighton
9. Sam Houston State
10. Wright State
Rolling, rolling, rolling …
• Vanderbilt: The 10-0 Commodores don't make it look easy, but the fact is they still win, win, win and win.
• Miami: The victory at Mississippi State should be the signal that the Canes have a legit shot to go from being picked last in the ACC to the NCAA Tournament. Miami is undefeated and its comfort level, especially with Jack McClinton leading the team, is at an all-time high under Frank Haith.
• Pitt: The Panthers easily dispatched Oklahoma State at home and look poised for a monster showdown on Thursday night against Duke at Madison Square Garden. Sam Young and DeJuan Blair are quite a 1-2 punch inside, and the guards continue to make timely shots. This may be the most interesting Pitt team to watch under Jamie Dixon.
• Kansas: After watching the Jayhawks crush Ohio on Saturday, it was hard not to think this is a potential title team.
• Butler: If it's a Butler nonconference game, then you can guarantee the Bulldogs -- 24-4 in nonconference games the past two seasons -- will be right there. Florida State was the latest victim in Indianapolis.
-- Andy Katz, ESPN.com
Pitt remains unbeaten
Now we're paying attention to …
• UMass: The Minutemen had a memorable week by winning at Boston College and holding off Toledo. UMass looks like it will be a player in the A-10.
• Arizona State: The 22-point rout of Xavier is certainly the breakthrough offensive performance the Sun Devils needed to make others stand up and take notice of them going into the Pac-10.
• Purdue: After coming close at Clemson and Missouri, the Boilermakers beat Louisville in Indianapolis.
• Oklahoma: The Sooners needed something to call their own in the nonconference season, and if Arkansas can be a player at some point in the SEC West, then the win over the Hogs may mean something in two months.
• New Orleans: The Privateers had received plenty of good PR in this space for the road wins at NC State and Tulane. But now this is serious business. They aren't going away and should be considered legit contenders for the Sun Belt crown after winning yet another road game -- this time at Colorado. Regardless of what you think of the Buffaloes, a Sun Belt team that wins at a Big 12, ACC and C-USA needs to be looked at as a contender, not a pretender, in its league.
-- Andy Katz, ESPN.com
Sooners run by Arkansas
Do you think ...
• John Beilein would like to still be at West Virginia? Beilein has had a rough go at Michigan, losing at Harvard and now at home to Central Michigan to fall to 4-7 with UCLA on deck Saturday (2 p.m. ET).
• St. John's had a joyous flight to Honolulu? Probably not, after the Red Storm lost at home to Niagara to drop their second straight game.
• George Washington coach Karl Hobbs envisioned Maureece Rice going scoreless in 14 minutes against 1-7 Binghamton in a 71-59 loss to the Bearcats? GW is off to a sputtering 3-5 start.
• Saint Louis coach Rick Majerus is a bit perplexed with his squad? The Billikens knocked off Southern Illinois after getting blown out by Kent State and Boston College.
• Rick Stansbury had any idea Mississippi State (5-5) would whiff on all its big games at home (Clemson and Miami), fail to capitalize in Anaheim (Southern Illinois and Miami-Ohio) and fall to South Alabama last week, too?
• DePaul coach Jerry Wainwright is waiting for Wilson Chandler (drafted by the New York Knicks in June) to suddenly appear after the season continues to go south? The Blue Demons have lost three in a row. The first two were easier to swallow (at Kansas and to Vanderbilt at home) before Illinois-Chicago nipped them too last week.
• Jay John of Oregon State will regret scheduling a home-and-home series with Tennessee Tech? He started out the 2005-06 season at Tech and lost 90-62. Tennessee Tech returned to Corvallis on Sunday and beat the Beavers 79-62.
-- Andy Katz, ESPN.com
SLU bests Southern Illinois
Get to know ...
• Antoine Agudio, Hofstra: The Hofstra guard is leading the country in scoring (27.4 PPG) and is averaging 17.4 points in the second half of games. He helped Hofstra cool down previously hot Charlotte with 18 second-half points (6-of-6 shooting). The CAA's second-leading scorer is UNC Wilmington's T.J. Carter, who is scoring 17.3 points a game, a hair less than what Agudio averages in the second half.
• Brian Williams, Tennessee: Tennessee coach Bruce Pearl could not be more prophetic. Friday night, Pearl said he was going to look to Williams to help fill Duke Crews' role after Crews' heart condition was revealed. Williams had been seldom used but then went out and scored 16 points and grabbed 14 boards in a win over Western Kentucky in Nashville.
• The Southland Conference: Stephen F. Austin (8-1) clearly is no joke after following up a road win at Oklahoma with a road victory at San Diego. Meanwhile, Sam Houston State hasn't missed a beat, improving to 9-0 with road wins at Saint Louis and Texas Southern last week. Texas-Arlington is 8-0 with its last win coming at Wichita State.
• Wright State: Brad Brownell continues to win wherever he coaches. He did it at UNC Wilmington, and he continues to win big games at Wright State. The Raiders weren't able to follow up the Butler win with an immediate victory, losing to Bradley. But they did beat Miami (Ohio) on a Todd Brown 3-pointer with less than a second remaining.
• North Dakota State's Saul Phillips: He beat his old boss, Colorado State coach and former NDSU head man Tim Miles, 83-69 at home. NDSU has had its share of big wins, like beating Marquette and Wisconsin, in years past. And it looks like those winning ways will continue under Phillips.
-- Andy Katz, ESPN.com
Hansbrough hurt in UNC's win over Rutgers
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Jay Bilas' weekly honor roll
Weekly honor roll membersposted: Monday, December 17, 2007 | Print Entry
Bilas' Weekly Honor Roll
First Team
• Antoine Agudio, Hofstra -- 30 points, 10 rebounds and five assists for the outstanding shooter and nation's top scorer in Hofstra's win over Charlotte
• Ty Lawson, North Carolina -- 26 points, six rebounds, five assists, four steals and incredible speed and defense in UNC's win at Rutgers
• Brandon Johnson, Old Dominion -- 15 points, five rebounds, nine assists, four steals and great leadership in ODU's win over Virginia Tech
• Robert Vaden, UAB -- 33 points in the Blazers' win over Kentucky at Freedom Hall
• Aleks Maric, Nebraska -- 23 points, seven rebounds and three blocks in the Huskers' win over Oregon)
Second Team
• DeJuan Blair, Pittsburgh -- 20 points, 10 rebounds and five blocks in Pitt's win over Oklahoma State
• Ryan Anderson, Nebraska -- 21 points, nine rebounds and four steals against Oregon
• Dan Werner, Florida -- 20 points, 14 rebounds, two blocks and some fight against Georgia Southern
• Chris Kramer, Purdue -- 14 points, four assists, four steals and toughness against Louisville
• Connor Atchley, Texas -- 26 points, 10 rebounds and three steals against Texas State
Weekly rant: If you didn't catch the Virginia Tech-Old Dominion game on Sunday, you missed a fun one. Old Dominion essentially led the game from tap to buzzer and won it, but it was a hard-played, ultra-competitive, fun game to watch.
ODU's Brandon Johnson was magnificent all game long, and Gerald Lee (a skilled but undersized big man that can score with either hand around the basket) impressed me.
For Virginia Tech, freshman Jeff Allen has a bright future ahead of him, and he played like a man with 13 points and 16 rebounds. Deron Washington and A.D. Vassallo both played very hard and very well.
My rant is for what happened after the game. Vassallo, a 6-6 junior from Puerto Rico who had 20 points in the game, was walking off the floor to the locker room after shaking hands. Passing a television camera, Vassallo held up his right index finger (I suppose to signify that he or VT is No. 1 in some unknown category) and seemed to say "I'm the bomb". (I ran it back four or five times, and that seemed fairly clear to me.)
Well, I may be old school in this regard, but immediately after a loss, it is hard to justify a belief that you are No. 1 in anything, let alone "the bomb". I am not suggesting that Vassallo should have hung his head in shame. But, for those of you out there that care what others think or perceive, the next time after you get your tail handed to you by a mid-major, a humble walk back to the locker room would be more appropriate. And, if you think we don't notice things like that, we do.
Most improved players: There are few, if any, more improved players in the nation than Texas forward Connor Atchley. The 6-10 skilled junior increased his scoring by nearly nine points a game up to 12.6 points, upped his rebounding and decreased his error rate, and his shooting percentages are through the roof. Through 10 games, Atchley is shooting 63.3 percent from the floor and 61.5 percent from 3. He is stronger, much more confident, and he is a real matchup problem that can pick-and-pop and stretch your defense.
Others that are vastly improved include North Carolina's Danny Green (the best sixth man in the nation to date), Wisconsin's Trevon Hughes (a jet scorer that needs only to learn to manage the game), Arizona's Jordan Hill (coming into his own as a dominant big man), Miami's Jack McClinton (his numbers aren't up, but he's a much better player this season), Kansas' Darnell Jackson (playing with confidence and efficiency) and West Virginia's Joe Alexander (increased production and star-caliber play).
Keep your eyes on: There is a future NBA player at Rider College, and his name is Jason Thompson. Even though he is a returning first team all-MAAC selection and one of only three players to average more than 20 points and 10 rebounds per game last season (Kevin Durant and Nick Fazekas were the other two), Thompson does not receive the acclaim that his talents -- and his production -- deserve.
Thompson is 6-10 and a very good athlete that can face up or play in the post, and he has really good feet. I watched him this summer at the Nike Stoudemire and LeBron Skills Academies, and no player outworked him. Currently, Thompson is averaging just 20.5 points, 11.6 rebounds and 3.3 blocks per game. Actually, his numbers could be better. He has battled some foul trouble and he is not yet making his free throws at his normal rate.
The best thing about Thompson, aside from his ability level, is his demeanor and the fact that he plays on both ends. He is not about himself; he is about his team. He is more than a one-man show, and that will be good for his career beyond college, and he will have a long one.
Another guy out of the MAAC to watch for is Niagara's Charron Fisher. The 6-4 senior guard is a big time scorer and rebounder for Joe Mihalich, and even though he launches up a lot of shots for the Purple Eagles, they need him to. It could be a great matchup if Niagara and Rider played in the MAAC final in Albany during Championship Week, but Siena and Loyola may have something to say about that.
The importance of free throws: In my weekend preview of the Western Kentucky-Tennessee game, I told you that I believed that Tennessee would win a hard-fought game, but the team that won the rebound battle and the free-throw battle would likely win. Well, Western Kentucky (an excellent team that should be in the NCAA Tournament) was as good or better than Tennessee in almost every facet of the game, but Tennessee outrebounded the Hilltoppers by three boards and shot 20 more free throws (making 12 more). If you don't think that free throws are a big deal, all you had to do was watch this game closely.
One of the big reasons that Tennessee came out on top was the play of freshman big man Brian Williams. The 6-10 freshman from Carbondale, Ill., had 16 points (on 8 of 11 shooting), 14 rebounds (seven offensive) and three blocks. Courtney Lee, who did not play his best, still had 23 points, eight rebounds, four assists and a steal against the Vols. This was one of the better games of the weekend, and it was a great win for Tennessee.
More Butler: Even without Pete Campbell, who was out of action in Butler's loss at Wright State, the Bulldogs won an impressive game against Florida State in Indianapolis. Butler made 11 3-pointers, made 11 more free throws and had four fewer turnovers than the Seminoles.
Butler's guards were dominant. A.J. Graves hit seven 3s and scored 25 points, while Mike Green scored 20 points, grabbed six rebounds and dished out three assists in another terrific performance. Butler is for real and winning shorthanded. Check the Bulldogs out.
Credit for playing? Really?: I heard NCAA Selection Committee chair Tom O'Connor say this weekend that he gives Florida State "great credit" for traveling to Indianapolis and losing to Butler. O'Connor is a very smart basketball man, and he is doing all the right things by traveling around the country viewing games in person. But, I wonder if that statement really is or can be true. If you give credit to Florida State simply for venturing out on the road and playing Butler, how do you factor in the win by Butler? Do the Bulldogs get a little less credit because they essentially played a home game against the Seminoles? Listen, I love all of this talk about the selection process. It's fun. But, at the end of the day, I am getting a little bit tired of the committee talking about scheduling or about sending messages.
The charge of the committee is simple: to select the 34 best at-large teams and put them into the NCAA Tournament. If I identify a team as one of the 34 best, and that team has proven it by beating really good teams, I could care less where they played their nonconference games. When it gets to the end of the line, and Florida State will probably be there again, do the Seminoles get "great credit" for just playing that game and losing, as if that will make the difference between NCAA and NIT?
What should make the difference is who you beat, not where you play. Winning a home game against a good team is hard, too. If you don't have enough big-time games on your conference schedule to prove you can beat people, whether road or home, then you need to load up with tough games in the nonconference. If you have a tough enough conference slate, then you don't have to beat yourself up in the nonconference. If the committee or any one voter would "send a message" by not voting for a team that they truly believe is one of the 34 best, I would have a problem with that. A big problem. And, when we ask all of our stupid questions on Selection Sunday about a team or teams we thought got "snubbed", the only answer the committee chair needs to provide is, "While this is a very good team, we didn't think this team was one of the 34 best at-large teams." That's a pretty good answer, and it doesn't leave us anywhere to go.
Officiating inconsistency: By and large, college officials do a great job, and they have had no bigger defender out there than me. However, I have been watching a ton of tape and a ton of games, and there is no excuse for some of the calls that have been missed, and the lack of consistency in some of the calls.
I have no problem with some officials working almost every day of the week. I don't think it is the right way to do things, but I understand that the officials are independent contractors that have a right to work as much as they like.
However, I believe that college officials need to watch tape to prepare for games and to critique their performances after games, and it should be done routinely instead of sporadically. If a referee watches tape of the upcoming teams, he or she will have a better understanding of how that team and its players play and will be better prepared for what will take place.
I have seen more flops this year than in most other years, and players are still getting away with it. Big, strong athletes are falling down like they have been shot by a sniper, when it would have taken a linebacker to take them down normally. That has to stop. In addition, officials need to be far more consistent with regard to post play and perimeter play. If a guard drives to the basket and leaves his path to seek out body contact against a defender that has established guarding position, that is not a foul on the defense. Similarly, if a post defender has his hands up and an offensive player seeks out the contact, that is not a foul.
We hold players accountable for every little mistake, and they do not get paid. Perhaps it is time that we hold officials more accountable. They are the only ones on the floor taking home a paycheck, and they have a huge influence on the outcome of these contests. Is it too much to ask that the officials be better prepared?
Weekly honor roll membersposted: Monday, December 17, 2007 | Print Entry
Bilas' Weekly Honor Roll
First Team
• Antoine Agudio, Hofstra -- 30 points, 10 rebounds and five assists for the outstanding shooter and nation's top scorer in Hofstra's win over Charlotte
• Ty Lawson, North Carolina -- 26 points, six rebounds, five assists, four steals and incredible speed and defense in UNC's win at Rutgers
• Brandon Johnson, Old Dominion -- 15 points, five rebounds, nine assists, four steals and great leadership in ODU's win over Virginia Tech
• Robert Vaden, UAB -- 33 points in the Blazers' win over Kentucky at Freedom Hall
• Aleks Maric, Nebraska -- 23 points, seven rebounds and three blocks in the Huskers' win over Oregon)
Second Team
• DeJuan Blair, Pittsburgh -- 20 points, 10 rebounds and five blocks in Pitt's win over Oklahoma State
• Ryan Anderson, Nebraska -- 21 points, nine rebounds and four steals against Oregon
• Dan Werner, Florida -- 20 points, 14 rebounds, two blocks and some fight against Georgia Southern
• Chris Kramer, Purdue -- 14 points, four assists, four steals and toughness against Louisville
• Connor Atchley, Texas -- 26 points, 10 rebounds and three steals against Texas State
Weekly rant: If you didn't catch the Virginia Tech-Old Dominion game on Sunday, you missed a fun one. Old Dominion essentially led the game from tap to buzzer and won it, but it was a hard-played, ultra-competitive, fun game to watch.
ODU's Brandon Johnson was magnificent all game long, and Gerald Lee (a skilled but undersized big man that can score with either hand around the basket) impressed me.
For Virginia Tech, freshman Jeff Allen has a bright future ahead of him, and he played like a man with 13 points and 16 rebounds. Deron Washington and A.D. Vassallo both played very hard and very well.
My rant is for what happened after the game. Vassallo, a 6-6 junior from Puerto Rico who had 20 points in the game, was walking off the floor to the locker room after shaking hands. Passing a television camera, Vassallo held up his right index finger (I suppose to signify that he or VT is No. 1 in some unknown category) and seemed to say "I'm the bomb". (I ran it back four or five times, and that seemed fairly clear to me.)
Well, I may be old school in this regard, but immediately after a loss, it is hard to justify a belief that you are No. 1 in anything, let alone "the bomb". I am not suggesting that Vassallo should have hung his head in shame. But, for those of you out there that care what others think or perceive, the next time after you get your tail handed to you by a mid-major, a humble walk back to the locker room would be more appropriate. And, if you think we don't notice things like that, we do.
Most improved players: There are few, if any, more improved players in the nation than Texas forward Connor Atchley. The 6-10 skilled junior increased his scoring by nearly nine points a game up to 12.6 points, upped his rebounding and decreased his error rate, and his shooting percentages are through the roof. Through 10 games, Atchley is shooting 63.3 percent from the floor and 61.5 percent from 3. He is stronger, much more confident, and he is a real matchup problem that can pick-and-pop and stretch your defense.
Others that are vastly improved include North Carolina's Danny Green (the best sixth man in the nation to date), Wisconsin's Trevon Hughes (a jet scorer that needs only to learn to manage the game), Arizona's Jordan Hill (coming into his own as a dominant big man), Miami's Jack McClinton (his numbers aren't up, but he's a much better player this season), Kansas' Darnell Jackson (playing with confidence and efficiency) and West Virginia's Joe Alexander (increased production and star-caliber play).
Keep your eyes on: There is a future NBA player at Rider College, and his name is Jason Thompson. Even though he is a returning first team all-MAAC selection and one of only three players to average more than 20 points and 10 rebounds per game last season (Kevin Durant and Nick Fazekas were the other two), Thompson does not receive the acclaim that his talents -- and his production -- deserve.
Thompson is 6-10 and a very good athlete that can face up or play in the post, and he has really good feet. I watched him this summer at the Nike Stoudemire and LeBron Skills Academies, and no player outworked him. Currently, Thompson is averaging just 20.5 points, 11.6 rebounds and 3.3 blocks per game. Actually, his numbers could be better. He has battled some foul trouble and he is not yet making his free throws at his normal rate.
The best thing about Thompson, aside from his ability level, is his demeanor and the fact that he plays on both ends. He is not about himself; he is about his team. He is more than a one-man show, and that will be good for his career beyond college, and he will have a long one.
Another guy out of the MAAC to watch for is Niagara's Charron Fisher. The 6-4 senior guard is a big time scorer and rebounder for Joe Mihalich, and even though he launches up a lot of shots for the Purple Eagles, they need him to. It could be a great matchup if Niagara and Rider played in the MAAC final in Albany during Championship Week, but Siena and Loyola may have something to say about that.
The importance of free throws: In my weekend preview of the Western Kentucky-Tennessee game, I told you that I believed that Tennessee would win a hard-fought game, but the team that won the rebound battle and the free-throw battle would likely win. Well, Western Kentucky (an excellent team that should be in the NCAA Tournament) was as good or better than Tennessee in almost every facet of the game, but Tennessee outrebounded the Hilltoppers by three boards and shot 20 more free throws (making 12 more). If you don't think that free throws are a big deal, all you had to do was watch this game closely.
One of the big reasons that Tennessee came out on top was the play of freshman big man Brian Williams. The 6-10 freshman from Carbondale, Ill., had 16 points (on 8 of 11 shooting), 14 rebounds (seven offensive) and three blocks. Courtney Lee, who did not play his best, still had 23 points, eight rebounds, four assists and a steal against the Vols. This was one of the better games of the weekend, and it was a great win for Tennessee.
More Butler: Even without Pete Campbell, who was out of action in Butler's loss at Wright State, the Bulldogs won an impressive game against Florida State in Indianapolis. Butler made 11 3-pointers, made 11 more free throws and had four fewer turnovers than the Seminoles.
Butler's guards were dominant. A.J. Graves hit seven 3s and scored 25 points, while Mike Green scored 20 points, grabbed six rebounds and dished out three assists in another terrific performance. Butler is for real and winning shorthanded. Check the Bulldogs out.
Credit for playing? Really?: I heard NCAA Selection Committee chair Tom O'Connor say this weekend that he gives Florida State "great credit" for traveling to Indianapolis and losing to Butler. O'Connor is a very smart basketball man, and he is doing all the right things by traveling around the country viewing games in person. But, I wonder if that statement really is or can be true. If you give credit to Florida State simply for venturing out on the road and playing Butler, how do you factor in the win by Butler? Do the Bulldogs get a little less credit because they essentially played a home game against the Seminoles? Listen, I love all of this talk about the selection process. It's fun. But, at the end of the day, I am getting a little bit tired of the committee talking about scheduling or about sending messages.
The charge of the committee is simple: to select the 34 best at-large teams and put them into the NCAA Tournament. If I identify a team as one of the 34 best, and that team has proven it by beating really good teams, I could care less where they played their nonconference games. When it gets to the end of the line, and Florida State will probably be there again, do the Seminoles get "great credit" for just playing that game and losing, as if that will make the difference between NCAA and NIT?
What should make the difference is who you beat, not where you play. Winning a home game against a good team is hard, too. If you don't have enough big-time games on your conference schedule to prove you can beat people, whether road or home, then you need to load up with tough games in the nonconference. If you have a tough enough conference slate, then you don't have to beat yourself up in the nonconference. If the committee or any one voter would "send a message" by not voting for a team that they truly believe is one of the 34 best, I would have a problem with that. A big problem. And, when we ask all of our stupid questions on Selection Sunday about a team or teams we thought got "snubbed", the only answer the committee chair needs to provide is, "While this is a very good team, we didn't think this team was one of the 34 best at-large teams." That's a pretty good answer, and it doesn't leave us anywhere to go.
Officiating inconsistency: By and large, college officials do a great job, and they have had no bigger defender out there than me. However, I have been watching a ton of tape and a ton of games, and there is no excuse for some of the calls that have been missed, and the lack of consistency in some of the calls.
I have no problem with some officials working almost every day of the week. I don't think it is the right way to do things, but I understand that the officials are independent contractors that have a right to work as much as they like.
However, I believe that college officials need to watch tape to prepare for games and to critique their performances after games, and it should be done routinely instead of sporadically. If a referee watches tape of the upcoming teams, he or she will have a better understanding of how that team and its players play and will be better prepared for what will take place.
I have seen more flops this year than in most other years, and players are still getting away with it. Big, strong athletes are falling down like they have been shot by a sniper, when it would have taken a linebacker to take them down normally. That has to stop. In addition, officials need to be far more consistent with regard to post play and perimeter play. If a guard drives to the basket and leaves his path to seek out body contact against a defender that has established guarding position, that is not a foul on the defense. Similarly, if a post defender has his hands up and an offensive player seeks out the contact, that is not a foul.
We hold players accountable for every little mistake, and they do not get paid. Perhaps it is time that we hold officials more accountable. They are the only ones on the floor taking home a paycheck, and they have a huge influence on the outcome of these contests. Is it too much to ask that the officials be better prepared?
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Joe Lunardi Chat Wrap
Chat with Joe Lunardi
Welcome to The Show! On Monday, ESPN college basketball contributor and March Madness expert extraordinaire Joe Lunardi will drop by to chat some Bracketology!
Lunardi had updated his latest bracket.
Send your questions now and join Lunardi in The Show on Monday at 4 p.m. ET!
Lunardi Archive: Chats | Columns
Joe Lunardi: Greetings. Let's talk brackets.
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Jonathan(Buffalo): If the season were to end today, would Syracuse be in the field of 65? And do you think they are going to make the tournament?
Joe Lunardi: I have Syracuse "just in" the field at this point, Jonathan, but you could argue just as easily in the other direction. What tipped me was the true road victory at Virginia, especially after being so outspoken on the topic of their scheduling for so long. The question now becomes, especially without Devendorf, can the 'Cuse stay in the upper half of the Big East? I'm seeing a dead-on "bubble team" the rest of the way.
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Zach (DC): I'm tired of hearing about Memphis, Kansas, and UNC blowing out terrible opponents. And I know Georgetown hasn't truly been challenged yet (though Alabama in Birmingham would have been, had Steele not been hurt) Georgetown plays efficient basketball, shooting over 50% and holding opponents to under 60 points. And now, just to prove they can score, the Hoyas just went 11 deep to beat Radford by 59 points and shoot 66% from the field. The difference between the Hoyas and the other elite teams is their system, their patience, and their humility. We see this style win "unheralded" in the NBA every year with the Spurs and Pistons. Give Georgetown some respect please.
Joe Lunardi: Not sure how much more respect the Hoyas can get, Zach, as they're ranked 4th in the country. But the fact of the matter is that the teams ranked ahead of them all have more significant wins so far. Fortunately we get to see this decided on the court beginning Saturday at Memphis.
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Kelly (Des Moines, IA): Is your 'projection' based upon where you see the teams come March or where they'd be seeded if selection was today?
Joe Lunardi: All projections are "as if the season ended today."
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SprungOnSports (Long Island): How many teams do you think the A-10 will be able to get in and why?
Joe Lunardi: It's certainly looking good for the Atlantic 10 at this point. Xavier and Rhode Island are solid at-large teams; UMass and Dayton could go either way at this point; and there is potential with Charlotte, Saint Joseph's and even Duquesne. My best guess for March is three bids.
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Andrew, Wisconsin: Joe- Seen Marquette this year yet? Tom Crean's boys have grown up and Dom James has let go of his NBA distractions and is ready to battle. How do you think they'll do in the BE and NCAA?
Joe Lunardi: I think Marquette has a chance to equal its 2003 team. In other words, a very, very good seed with a real shot at the Final Four.
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Rokk (Andrews Settlement, PA): Joe, you need to quickly find 2 replacement teams for Florida & Notre Dame. 1) Florida has played 1 legitament team so far and lost @ HOME. 2) Notre Dame is 1-2 versus equal competition. ALL other WINS by both teams are at home against MUNCHCAKES. You said many times, its WHAT you have DONE SO FAR. So far both teams have DONE almost NOTHING! Rokk
Joe Lunardi: This is the tricky part of the early brackets, Rokk. If we went strictly on the basis of quality wins to this point, a whole bunch of ranked teams would also be absent from the projection. But that's not realistic and we have to adjust accordingly. What are Georgetown's NCAA credentials thus far? Florida and Notre Dame are in because of how they've played more than who they've beaten, as much as I'd rather not lean on such criteria (and won't later on).
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eric (chicago): Hi Joe, just looked at your newest bracket and noticed you had 7 Pac 10 teams and 4 Big 12 teams. The Big 12 is 9-6 against the Pac 10 with the majority of their wins coming against the top half of the Pac 10, while 4 of the Pac 10s wins came against the bottom half of the Big 12. Is this an oversight or plain disrespect for the Big 12?
Joe Lunardi: I never look at one conference's record versus another, because 1) it's not a selection criteria that the committee uses and 2) this process is about evaluating individual teams, not conferences. In my judgment to date, the 7th Pac-10 team (Cal) was a stronger candidate than the next group of Big 12 teams (Oklahoma, Kansas State, Baylor, Nebraska). Cal's double-digit win over the 4th Big 12 team (Missouri) was simply one part of that evaluation.
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Ray (mi): If the Spartans were to win on Saturday against Texas and finish 12-1 in nc and 15-3 in the B10. Would 27-4 be enough to get the #1 seed in Detroit? Or is Memphis pretty much locked into that region as a 1 seed?
Joe Lunardi: Ray, in that scenario I think Michigan State would be No. 1 in Detroit and Memphis would be No. 1 in the South (Houston).
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Cole(UT): Joey Brackets- Say BYU wins the MWC, with a win vs Louisville and close loses to NC and Michigan St. what is the celling on there seed?
Joe Lunardi: The win over Louisville isn't looking so great right now. Regardless, I think BYU can climb as high as a No. 4 seed come March.
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Blake (Dallas, TX): Joe, Depending on how Texas A&M fairs through conference play do they have a shot a 1 or 2 seed? or are they destined for a 3 or 4?
Joe Lunardi: I'd lean closer to the latter than the former, Blake.
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Matt (Milwaukee, WI): Joe- Love your work. If someone other than G-Town (say Pitt or Marquette) wins the Big East, do they have a realistic shot at a #1 seed, or is a #2 the ceiling?
Joe Lunardi: The outright Big East will almost certainly be in the discussion for a No. 1 seed.
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Brendan (New York): If your projections are based on the fact that the season ended today, how is it possible that Villanova would be an 8 seed when there ranked 16 and 20 in the polls?
Joe Lunardi: The polls are another non-criteria for the committee. And Jay Wright would be the first to tell you his team isn't the 16th-best in the country (he told me exactly that when we saw one anothejr last week). I said, "You look 8-9 to me at this point," and he said, "That's about right."
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David (Franklin, TN): Joe, will the CUSA get two schools in the tourney...and who will it be? (Houston has best shot...right?)
Joe Lunardi: Houston and UAB each have a shot, David. At the moment I'd rate the Blazers higher due to a better non-conference schedule.
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Joe (Baltimore): I know we're young, but will MD be able to make some noise this year in the ACC?
Joe Lunardi: Noise, yes. NCAA contender, no. I thought the Terps would be further along at this point, to be honest.
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Greg: Harper Woods, MI: Why has Dayton not been included in your Bracketology? They are the only team with three top 50 RPI wins all on the road. Their only loss came to a good George Mason team. I see you projected UMASS ahead of UD. Please shed a bit of light on this situation. Thank You
Joe Lunardi: UMass's overall schedule is twice as strong as Dayton's at this point. Even so, this was a very close call and could easily reverse with a few more games completed. Also, remember that Dayton is competing against every at-large team (not just those from the A-10).
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Bill (Oregon): Ducks #1 seed?
Joe Lunardi: Only if Saint Mary's gets one.
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Denis (Oregon): Which of these statements is more correct? Gonzaga will make the elite eight. or St. Mary's will win the WCC.
Joe Lunardi: The latter, if only because it's an incredible crap shoot to reach the Elite Eight.
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Nick Trevose pa: Do you believe that Saint Joseph's can make the field of 65 if they play great for the rest of the season
Joe Lunardi: Yes, Nick, but the same hope applies to about 200 other teams.
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Kelly (Des Moines, IA): So if the projections are 'as if the season ended today', how does Georgetown and it's zero top-50 wins get a 2 seed while Vandy (5 top-50 wins) is a 5 seed? Don't get me wrong, i think G'town will finish closer to a 2 seed but they don't deserve it 'if the season ended today'.
Joe Lunardi: As I posted earlier, we have to combine both results and a little common sense at this point of the schedule. I mean, if the Yankees opened the season with series against the Devil Rays and Royals, would you leave them out of the post-season discussion?
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Mike, Pittsburgh: Simple question who you taking on Thursday night..Pitt or Duke? I think Pitt could provide some serious match-up problems with Young and Blair and steal a victory (can't find too many that side with me)
Joe Lunardi: All I know, Mike, is that I'm going and really looking forward to the game. What would concern me most if a Pitt fan would be Duke's pressure and speed in converting from defense to offense. Are the Panthers ready to win a 90-point game at that level? They may be, but I wouldn't bet on it.
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Hill: San Francisco, CA: What's the highest seeding you think is achievable for the SEC champion?
Joe Lunardi: Any of the "big six" champions is a contender for a No. 1 seed.
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Chet Steadman (Chi-Town): Memphis vs GTown Duke vs Pitt Whats your thoughts on these 2 big time games?
Joe Lunardi: I like Duke at the Garden and Georgetown on the road on Saturday.
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Dawayne (Jacksonville, Fl): Joe, There is a debate of who is better, UNC or Duke. In the UNC/Rutgers telecast, Sean McDonough stated he has seen UNC play 2 times and Duke play 3 times and he stated he likes Duke. I would challenge that as UNC has play 6 straight road games and out of the 6, 4 are true road games (non-neutral site). I think all of Duke road games have been on a neutral site as they will play Pitt at MSG-Cameron this Thursday. So they still haven't play a true road game. Who do you feel is better at this point. Be honest too....Go Heels!
Joe Lunardi: I think Carolina can beat you in more ways, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if both are No. 1 seeds in March.
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John (St. Louis, MO): My coworkers and I have a quick question: when it comes to assigning teams from the one-bid conferences, do you just go with the conference leader or is there more rationale behind it?
Joe Lunardi: I go with the conference leader on the date of that particular bracket. If no league games have yet been played, the current RPI leader is selected.
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Ramsey (Livonia, MI): Hi Joe, how big is this Saturday's game between MSU and Texas on a tourney resume, enough to get MSU a 1 seed if they win and have a good big ten season? Also, do you really think they would send MSU to Detroit as a 3 seed? Seems like the committee tends not to reward 3 seeds by letting them play in their home state...thanks.
Joe Lunardi: Bigger for Michigan State, I think, if the goal is chasing a No. 1 seed. As far as the No. 3-to-Detroit angle is concerned, there is no rule against it (and, in fact, the bracketing procedures actually encourage such a placement).
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Paul (Tempe): If the Sun Devils go .500 in Pac-10 play, do they have a legitimate shot at the NCAAs, considering they will have the win over Xavier, plus maybe one or two more ranked teams from the Pac-10?
Joe Lunardi: Sounds like a bubble team to me.
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Aram (Nashville, TN): Hows do you feel about being ridiculed on other websites for being one of the worst at predicting last years field?
Joe Lunardi: Bring it on, Aram. I did miss two teams last year and 10 in the last eight combined. Getting senile in my old age, I guess.
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Stan (Charlotte): Does Davidson have to win the conference tourney since it failed to win any of its big early matchups, or can they run the table in the Southern Conference and still get an at-large if they lose in the tourney finals?
Joe Lunardi: If Davidson runs the table, I think they'd make it. Much less, though, and it's auto-bid only.
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Frank (New York): Joe - back to ND, 1) how much does the weak non-conference slate hurt them come tourney selection time? (I thought they deserved better than a #6 seed last year and Winthrop was a terrible draw for them), & 2) where do you expect them to finish in the Big East this year?
Joe Lunardi: The weak slate should (and last year did) hurt the Irish. Not sure why they continue to schedule the way they do. In the Big East, ND is somewhere in the second tier (after G'town, Pitt and Marquette). But it's a big second tier, so there are no guarantees.
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Grant (Birmingham, AL): I've just reviewed your updated bracket and I just don't understand why the SEC doesn't ever seem to get its respect in college athletics. Right now you are only showing four SEC teams. A young Alabama team takes Georgetown to the wire. A team with no real depth has a one point lead with four minutes to play. A team that probably wont finish in the top five of the conference. I just don't get it. The SEC is the most competitive conference in the country whether it be football, basketball, or baseball. Its time for the media to stop loving the Pac 10 / Big 10 in football and the Big East / ACC in basketball and start realizing that the most competitive athletics is in the SEC. How many more championships do we have to win to get the respect that we deserve.
Joe Lunardi: Every year, every sport and, for that matter, every bracket, is its own entity, Grant. One reason the SEC fares poorly in early brackets most years is that few teams go out and play people away from home. You can only evaluate what you see, but no one who does this seriously disrespects the SEC.
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Q (Dayton): With the WAC being down this year, what kind of effect will that be come selection sunday for other mid major conferences?
Joe Lunardi: It can only be good news if an extra slot or two are available.
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Ryan (MD): We had this discussion about Notre Dame last year - they'll go slightly above .500 in the big east beating up mostly on the bottom teams (and due to unbalanced scheduling they miss most of the best teams), end up with 20 wins (due to their easy non-conf schedule) and yet they will be a "no-brainer" in - how else besides leaving them out can this type of scheduling be stopped?
Joe Lunardi: The Irish could (and probably would) be left out in such a scenario. I direct your attention to Syracuse, March 2007.
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Jim (DeKalb): Joe - really enjoy your work. Has the Missouri Valley really decreased over the last couple of years to a 1-bid league? I'm hoping Bradley can find a way in. Thanks!
Joe Lunardi: The Valley is still very good, just not quite at the level of the last year or two. There are two issues for the MVC at the moment: 1) Southern Illinois has not played like a "lock" NCAA team and 2) no one is stepping up as a obvious at-large team so far. Hence there is only one Valley team (Creighton) in the current bracket.
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jason houston Texas: should i just go and get my regional tickets to see the Longhorns now
Joe Lunardi: I wouldn't do that, Jason. Even being a No. 1 wouldn't guarantee the Longhorns being in Houston.
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Nick (Seattle): In all your years doing this, what's the weirdest decision the NCAA committee made?
Joe Lunardi: Air Force, two years ago. The committee was just plain wrong on that one.
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Micah Gulfport: Kansas Jayhawks??? Serious contenders? Or another disappointing ending in the Hawks future?
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Frank (Denver): What do you think of the neutral court games? Do they help or hurt teams?
Joe Lunardi: They greatly help teams AND the committee, Frank.
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Greg (Minneapolis, MN): Granted, it's hard to imagine a Southland team will get an at large bid come March, but how is Stephen F. Austin not in the discussion if the season ended today? They have a win at Oklahoma.
Joe Lunardi: Both SFA and Sam Houston are in the discussion (or, more accurately, the conversation I have with myself!). It would be a real challenge for the committee to deal with a possible at-large from the Southland (although I can tell you that Northwestern State got talked about a couple of years had it come to that).
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Jeff (Chillicothe, OH): Who is your #1 overall seed? How do you choose between the 4 #1 seeds? Is it RPI, SOS, or just the old fashion eye ball test?
Joe Lunardi: It's North Carolina right now, Jeff, and I sort out teams 1-4 the same way I look at every other team under consideration. It's their entire body or work.
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Joe (Chicago): If Indiana wins the Big Ten, do they get a 1 or do they have to settle for a 2 or 3?
Joe Lunardi: Depends on how many hits they (and any other top seed contended) takes along the way.
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Nathan (NYC): Do you ever try to pick the BCS bowls just to be crazy?
Joe Lunardi: No, Nathan, I prefer to pick ON the BCS (and the Bowls in general).
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Tom (Durham): Joe, full disclosure time as a journalist. Do you have a favorite team or program that you root for, or if not, at least admire the most for how they run things?
Joe Lunardi: I attended and am employed by Saint Joseph's University in Philadelphia, so there is certainly an allegence there, Tom. Having said that, I've also never over-seeded or over-promoted the Hawks. I admire a number of other programs across the country, and it's no secret I lean toward high-achieving mid-majors over what I call "middling" majors. But, when push comes to shove, I often cover up the school name when examining each team's NCAA resume.
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Zac (New Albany, IN): Hey Joe, whats the chances of IU making it to the final four? They have a great one-two punch with alot of depth now that we have Ratliff back...
Joe Lunardi: The Hoosiers are legit Final Four contended, Zac, especially if they can keep the coaches off the phone). Sorry, couldn't resist that one.
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Baron, Pittsburgh: I suppose knowing how to spell correctly, use words in their proper context, and create a coherent sentence precludes one from having his or her question chosen and posted by you. That a way to pander to the uneducated college basketball fan, Joe.
Joe Lunardi: I kan't spel, either, Boran.
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Nate (LA): With a terrible non-conference showing, how hish does Washington need to finish in Pac-10 to get an at-large? Would 10 wins do it?
Joe Lunardi: At least. Were we not in the same boat last year?
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Jeff (Chicago): How do the neutral court games help the committee, Joe? I am just curious.
Joe Lunardi: That's an easy one, Jeff. Neutral court games are the most fair test.
Joe Lunardi: OK, gang, running out of time and will take three more quick ones.
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Rich Peoria Il: If Bradley can win on the road at Butler this wedneday and beat VCU at home saturday do they get back in the bracket?
Joe Lunardi: Absolutely.
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Jeff (Chillicothe, OH): Is the MAC a two big league? Miami OH is playing perhaps the toughest schedule in the non-conf. in the country with wins over Xavier and others and Ohio just beat Maryland. Kent St. is a very good team and we haven't even talked about the West divison yet.
Joe Lunardi: I hope so, Jeff. The MAC has been truly snakebitten in recent years. That, combined with some poor scheduling practices, has doomed them to single-bid outcomes.
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David, Omaha, NE: What about the U of Dayton? Do you think they could possibably move up?
Joe Lunardi: I'm expecting it.
Joe Lunardi: That's it, folks. We'll begin weekly Bracketology (and Chats) after the holidays. Best to all!!
Chat with Joe Lunardi
Welcome to The Show! On Monday, ESPN college basketball contributor and March Madness expert extraordinaire Joe Lunardi will drop by to chat some Bracketology!
Lunardi had updated his latest bracket.
Send your questions now and join Lunardi in The Show on Monday at 4 p.m. ET!
Lunardi Archive: Chats | Columns
Joe Lunardi: Greetings. Let's talk brackets.
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Jonathan(Buffalo): If the season were to end today, would Syracuse be in the field of 65? And do you think they are going to make the tournament?
Joe Lunardi: I have Syracuse "just in" the field at this point, Jonathan, but you could argue just as easily in the other direction. What tipped me was the true road victory at Virginia, especially after being so outspoken on the topic of their scheduling for so long. The question now becomes, especially without Devendorf, can the 'Cuse stay in the upper half of the Big East? I'm seeing a dead-on "bubble team" the rest of the way.
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Zach (DC): I'm tired of hearing about Memphis, Kansas, and UNC blowing out terrible opponents. And I know Georgetown hasn't truly been challenged yet (though Alabama in Birmingham would have been, had Steele not been hurt) Georgetown plays efficient basketball, shooting over 50% and holding opponents to under 60 points. And now, just to prove they can score, the Hoyas just went 11 deep to beat Radford by 59 points and shoot 66% from the field. The difference between the Hoyas and the other elite teams is their system, their patience, and their humility. We see this style win "unheralded" in the NBA every year with the Spurs and Pistons. Give Georgetown some respect please.
Joe Lunardi: Not sure how much more respect the Hoyas can get, Zach, as they're ranked 4th in the country. But the fact of the matter is that the teams ranked ahead of them all have more significant wins so far. Fortunately we get to see this decided on the court beginning Saturday at Memphis.
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Kelly (Des Moines, IA): Is your 'projection' based upon where you see the teams come March or where they'd be seeded if selection was today?
Joe Lunardi: All projections are "as if the season ended today."
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SprungOnSports (Long Island): How many teams do you think the A-10 will be able to get in and why?
Joe Lunardi: It's certainly looking good for the Atlantic 10 at this point. Xavier and Rhode Island are solid at-large teams; UMass and Dayton could go either way at this point; and there is potential with Charlotte, Saint Joseph's and even Duquesne. My best guess for March is three bids.
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Andrew, Wisconsin: Joe- Seen Marquette this year yet? Tom Crean's boys have grown up and Dom James has let go of his NBA distractions and is ready to battle. How do you think they'll do in the BE and NCAA?
Joe Lunardi: I think Marquette has a chance to equal its 2003 team. In other words, a very, very good seed with a real shot at the Final Four.
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Rokk (Andrews Settlement, PA): Joe, you need to quickly find 2 replacement teams for Florida & Notre Dame. 1) Florida has played 1 legitament team so far and lost @ HOME. 2) Notre Dame is 1-2 versus equal competition. ALL other WINS by both teams are at home against MUNCHCAKES. You said many times, its WHAT you have DONE SO FAR. So far both teams have DONE almost NOTHING! Rokk
Joe Lunardi: This is the tricky part of the early brackets, Rokk. If we went strictly on the basis of quality wins to this point, a whole bunch of ranked teams would also be absent from the projection. But that's not realistic and we have to adjust accordingly. What are Georgetown's NCAA credentials thus far? Florida and Notre Dame are in because of how they've played more than who they've beaten, as much as I'd rather not lean on such criteria (and won't later on).
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eric (chicago): Hi Joe, just looked at your newest bracket and noticed you had 7 Pac 10 teams and 4 Big 12 teams. The Big 12 is 9-6 against the Pac 10 with the majority of their wins coming against the top half of the Pac 10, while 4 of the Pac 10s wins came against the bottom half of the Big 12. Is this an oversight or plain disrespect for the Big 12?
Joe Lunardi: I never look at one conference's record versus another, because 1) it's not a selection criteria that the committee uses and 2) this process is about evaluating individual teams, not conferences. In my judgment to date, the 7th Pac-10 team (Cal) was a stronger candidate than the next group of Big 12 teams (Oklahoma, Kansas State, Baylor, Nebraska). Cal's double-digit win over the 4th Big 12 team (Missouri) was simply one part of that evaluation.
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Ray (mi): If the Spartans were to win on Saturday against Texas and finish 12-1 in nc and 15-3 in the B10. Would 27-4 be enough to get the #1 seed in Detroit? Or is Memphis pretty much locked into that region as a 1 seed?
Joe Lunardi: Ray, in that scenario I think Michigan State would be No. 1 in Detroit and Memphis would be No. 1 in the South (Houston).
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Cole(UT): Joey Brackets- Say BYU wins the MWC, with a win vs Louisville and close loses to NC and Michigan St. what is the celling on there seed?
Joe Lunardi: The win over Louisville isn't looking so great right now. Regardless, I think BYU can climb as high as a No. 4 seed come March.
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Blake (Dallas, TX): Joe, Depending on how Texas A&M fairs through conference play do they have a shot a 1 or 2 seed? or are they destined for a 3 or 4?
Joe Lunardi: I'd lean closer to the latter than the former, Blake.
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Matt (Milwaukee, WI): Joe- Love your work. If someone other than G-Town (say Pitt or Marquette) wins the Big East, do they have a realistic shot at a #1 seed, or is a #2 the ceiling?
Joe Lunardi: The outright Big East will almost certainly be in the discussion for a No. 1 seed.
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Brendan (New York): If your projections are based on the fact that the season ended today, how is it possible that Villanova would be an 8 seed when there ranked 16 and 20 in the polls?
Joe Lunardi: The polls are another non-criteria for the committee. And Jay Wright would be the first to tell you his team isn't the 16th-best in the country (he told me exactly that when we saw one anothejr last week). I said, "You look 8-9 to me at this point," and he said, "That's about right."
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David (Franklin, TN): Joe, will the CUSA get two schools in the tourney...and who will it be? (Houston has best shot...right?)
Joe Lunardi: Houston and UAB each have a shot, David. At the moment I'd rate the Blazers higher due to a better non-conference schedule.
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Joe (Baltimore): I know we're young, but will MD be able to make some noise this year in the ACC?
Joe Lunardi: Noise, yes. NCAA contender, no. I thought the Terps would be further along at this point, to be honest.
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Greg: Harper Woods, MI: Why has Dayton not been included in your Bracketology? They are the only team with three top 50 RPI wins all on the road. Their only loss came to a good George Mason team. I see you projected UMASS ahead of UD. Please shed a bit of light on this situation. Thank You
Joe Lunardi: UMass's overall schedule is twice as strong as Dayton's at this point. Even so, this was a very close call and could easily reverse with a few more games completed. Also, remember that Dayton is competing against every at-large team (not just those from the A-10).
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Bill (Oregon): Ducks #1 seed?
Joe Lunardi: Only if Saint Mary's gets one.
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Denis (Oregon): Which of these statements is more correct? Gonzaga will make the elite eight. or St. Mary's will win the WCC.
Joe Lunardi: The latter, if only because it's an incredible crap shoot to reach the Elite Eight.
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Nick Trevose pa: Do you believe that Saint Joseph's can make the field of 65 if they play great for the rest of the season
Joe Lunardi: Yes, Nick, but the same hope applies to about 200 other teams.
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Kelly (Des Moines, IA): So if the projections are 'as if the season ended today', how does Georgetown and it's zero top-50 wins get a 2 seed while Vandy (5 top-50 wins) is a 5 seed? Don't get me wrong, i think G'town will finish closer to a 2 seed but they don't deserve it 'if the season ended today'.
Joe Lunardi: As I posted earlier, we have to combine both results and a little common sense at this point of the schedule. I mean, if the Yankees opened the season with series against the Devil Rays and Royals, would you leave them out of the post-season discussion?
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Mike, Pittsburgh: Simple question who you taking on Thursday night..Pitt or Duke? I think Pitt could provide some serious match-up problems with Young and Blair and steal a victory (can't find too many that side with me)
Joe Lunardi: All I know, Mike, is that I'm going and really looking forward to the game. What would concern me most if a Pitt fan would be Duke's pressure and speed in converting from defense to offense. Are the Panthers ready to win a 90-point game at that level? They may be, but I wouldn't bet on it.
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Hill: San Francisco, CA: What's the highest seeding you think is achievable for the SEC champion?
Joe Lunardi: Any of the "big six" champions is a contender for a No. 1 seed.
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Chet Steadman (Chi-Town): Memphis vs GTown Duke vs Pitt Whats your thoughts on these 2 big time games?
Joe Lunardi: I like Duke at the Garden and Georgetown on the road on Saturday.
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Dawayne (Jacksonville, Fl): Joe, There is a debate of who is better, UNC or Duke. In the UNC/Rutgers telecast, Sean McDonough stated he has seen UNC play 2 times and Duke play 3 times and he stated he likes Duke. I would challenge that as UNC has play 6 straight road games and out of the 6, 4 are true road games (non-neutral site). I think all of Duke road games have been on a neutral site as they will play Pitt at MSG-Cameron this Thursday. So they still haven't play a true road game. Who do you feel is better at this point. Be honest too....Go Heels!
Joe Lunardi: I think Carolina can beat you in more ways, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if both are No. 1 seeds in March.
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John (St. Louis, MO): My coworkers and I have a quick question: when it comes to assigning teams from the one-bid conferences, do you just go with the conference leader or is there more rationale behind it?
Joe Lunardi: I go with the conference leader on the date of that particular bracket. If no league games have yet been played, the current RPI leader is selected.
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Ramsey (Livonia, MI): Hi Joe, how big is this Saturday's game between MSU and Texas on a tourney resume, enough to get MSU a 1 seed if they win and have a good big ten season? Also, do you really think they would send MSU to Detroit as a 3 seed? Seems like the committee tends not to reward 3 seeds by letting them play in their home state...thanks.
Joe Lunardi: Bigger for Michigan State, I think, if the goal is chasing a No. 1 seed. As far as the No. 3-to-Detroit angle is concerned, there is no rule against it (and, in fact, the bracketing procedures actually encourage such a placement).
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Paul (Tempe): If the Sun Devils go .500 in Pac-10 play, do they have a legitimate shot at the NCAAs, considering they will have the win over Xavier, plus maybe one or two more ranked teams from the Pac-10?
Joe Lunardi: Sounds like a bubble team to me.
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Aram (Nashville, TN): Hows do you feel about being ridiculed on other websites for being one of the worst at predicting last years field?
Joe Lunardi: Bring it on, Aram. I did miss two teams last year and 10 in the last eight combined. Getting senile in my old age, I guess.
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Stan (Charlotte): Does Davidson have to win the conference tourney since it failed to win any of its big early matchups, or can they run the table in the Southern Conference and still get an at-large if they lose in the tourney finals?
Joe Lunardi: If Davidson runs the table, I think they'd make it. Much less, though, and it's auto-bid only.
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Frank (New York): Joe - back to ND, 1) how much does the weak non-conference slate hurt them come tourney selection time? (I thought they deserved better than a #6 seed last year and Winthrop was a terrible draw for them), & 2) where do you expect them to finish in the Big East this year?
Joe Lunardi: The weak slate should (and last year did) hurt the Irish. Not sure why they continue to schedule the way they do. In the Big East, ND is somewhere in the second tier (after G'town, Pitt and Marquette). But it's a big second tier, so there are no guarantees.
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Grant (Birmingham, AL): I've just reviewed your updated bracket and I just don't understand why the SEC doesn't ever seem to get its respect in college athletics. Right now you are only showing four SEC teams. A young Alabama team takes Georgetown to the wire. A team with no real depth has a one point lead with four minutes to play. A team that probably wont finish in the top five of the conference. I just don't get it. The SEC is the most competitive conference in the country whether it be football, basketball, or baseball. Its time for the media to stop loving the Pac 10 / Big 10 in football and the Big East / ACC in basketball and start realizing that the most competitive athletics is in the SEC. How many more championships do we have to win to get the respect that we deserve.
Joe Lunardi: Every year, every sport and, for that matter, every bracket, is its own entity, Grant. One reason the SEC fares poorly in early brackets most years is that few teams go out and play people away from home. You can only evaluate what you see, but no one who does this seriously disrespects the SEC.
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Q (Dayton): With the WAC being down this year, what kind of effect will that be come selection sunday for other mid major conferences?
Joe Lunardi: It can only be good news if an extra slot or two are available.
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Ryan (MD): We had this discussion about Notre Dame last year - they'll go slightly above .500 in the big east beating up mostly on the bottom teams (and due to unbalanced scheduling they miss most of the best teams), end up with 20 wins (due to their easy non-conf schedule) and yet they will be a "no-brainer" in - how else besides leaving them out can this type of scheduling be stopped?
Joe Lunardi: The Irish could (and probably would) be left out in such a scenario. I direct your attention to Syracuse, March 2007.
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Jim (DeKalb): Joe - really enjoy your work. Has the Missouri Valley really decreased over the last couple of years to a 1-bid league? I'm hoping Bradley can find a way in. Thanks!
Joe Lunardi: The Valley is still very good, just not quite at the level of the last year or two. There are two issues for the MVC at the moment: 1) Southern Illinois has not played like a "lock" NCAA team and 2) no one is stepping up as a obvious at-large team so far. Hence there is only one Valley team (Creighton) in the current bracket.
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jason houston Texas: should i just go and get my regional tickets to see the Longhorns now
Joe Lunardi: I wouldn't do that, Jason. Even being a No. 1 wouldn't guarantee the Longhorns being in Houston.
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Nick (Seattle): In all your years doing this, what's the weirdest decision the NCAA committee made?
Joe Lunardi: Air Force, two years ago. The committee was just plain wrong on that one.
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Micah Gulfport: Kansas Jayhawks??? Serious contenders? Or another disappointing ending in the Hawks future?
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Frank (Denver): What do you think of the neutral court games? Do they help or hurt teams?
Joe Lunardi: They greatly help teams AND the committee, Frank.
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Greg (Minneapolis, MN): Granted, it's hard to imagine a Southland team will get an at large bid come March, but how is Stephen F. Austin not in the discussion if the season ended today? They have a win at Oklahoma.
Joe Lunardi: Both SFA and Sam Houston are in the discussion (or, more accurately, the conversation I have with myself!). It would be a real challenge for the committee to deal with a possible at-large from the Southland (although I can tell you that Northwestern State got talked about a couple of years had it come to that).
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Jeff (Chillicothe, OH): Who is your #1 overall seed? How do you choose between the 4 #1 seeds? Is it RPI, SOS, or just the old fashion eye ball test?
Joe Lunardi: It's North Carolina right now, Jeff, and I sort out teams 1-4 the same way I look at every other team under consideration. It's their entire body or work.
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Joe (Chicago): If Indiana wins the Big Ten, do they get a 1 or do they have to settle for a 2 or 3?
Joe Lunardi: Depends on how many hits they (and any other top seed contended) takes along the way.
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Nathan (NYC): Do you ever try to pick the BCS bowls just to be crazy?
Joe Lunardi: No, Nathan, I prefer to pick ON the BCS (and the Bowls in general).
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Tom (Durham): Joe, full disclosure time as a journalist. Do you have a favorite team or program that you root for, or if not, at least admire the most for how they run things?
Joe Lunardi: I attended and am employed by Saint Joseph's University in Philadelphia, so there is certainly an allegence there, Tom. Having said that, I've also never over-seeded or over-promoted the Hawks. I admire a number of other programs across the country, and it's no secret I lean toward high-achieving mid-majors over what I call "middling" majors. But, when push comes to shove, I often cover up the school name when examining each team's NCAA resume.
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Zac (New Albany, IN): Hey Joe, whats the chances of IU making it to the final four? They have a great one-two punch with alot of depth now that we have Ratliff back...
Joe Lunardi: The Hoosiers are legit Final Four contended, Zac, especially if they can keep the coaches off the phone). Sorry, couldn't resist that one.
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Baron, Pittsburgh: I suppose knowing how to spell correctly, use words in their proper context, and create a coherent sentence precludes one from having his or her question chosen and posted by you. That a way to pander to the uneducated college basketball fan, Joe.
Joe Lunardi: I kan't spel, either, Boran.
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Nate (LA): With a terrible non-conference showing, how hish does Washington need to finish in Pac-10 to get an at-large? Would 10 wins do it?
Joe Lunardi: At least. Were we not in the same boat last year?
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Jeff (Chicago): How do the neutral court games help the committee, Joe? I am just curious.
Joe Lunardi: That's an easy one, Jeff. Neutral court games are the most fair test.
Joe Lunardi: OK, gang, running out of time and will take three more quick ones.
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Rich Peoria Il: If Bradley can win on the road at Butler this wedneday and beat VCU at home saturday do they get back in the bracket?
Joe Lunardi: Absolutely.
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Jeff (Chillicothe, OH): Is the MAC a two big league? Miami OH is playing perhaps the toughest schedule in the non-conf. in the country with wins over Xavier and others and Ohio just beat Maryland. Kent St. is a very good team and we haven't even talked about the West divison yet.
Joe Lunardi: I hope so, Jeff. The MAC has been truly snakebitten in recent years. That, combined with some poor scheduling practices, has doomed them to single-bid outcomes.
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David, Omaha, NE: What about the U of Dayton? Do you think they could possibably move up?
Joe Lunardi: I'm expecting it.
Joe Lunardi: That's it, folks. We'll begin weekly Bracketology (and Chats) after the holidays. Best to all!!