Region 21 - 2015

[Crab's Brother]

I'm a few weeks behind getting this started but better late than never, I guess.

To start this I ran this weeks numbers as Mr. EItel is a little behind.

This should be pretty accurate:

1. Valley 7.75
2. Paint Valley 7.5
3. Fort Frye 6.375
4. Grandview Heights 5.85
5. Newark Catholic 5.425
6. Fredericktown 5.37
7. River 5.2
8. Chesapeake 5.125
9. Ready 3.925
10. Cardington Lincoln 3.75
11. Barnesville 3.45
12. Monroe Central 2.95

[sballchck]

The battle for 8th Place, and the right to travel to Lucasville in early November, has begun.

[Crab's Brother]

The battle for 8th Place, and the right to travel to Lucasville in early November, has begun.

This region is going to be so much harder to predict than in years past. I really thought Peake was 9 win team at least. I have no clue how good Fredericktown is. Can NC get to 7 wins?

This one will take a while to figure out. I feel like the only thing I know for sure is that Paint Valley will win at least 9 games. They may win them all, but they are winning at least 9.

[EasternDspy]

Is Fort Frye a lock at 8 wins? Can't see them losing more then 2 games.

[nutronron2012]

According to Drew they have and 87% chance of being in right now with 8 wins

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50
Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions

#395 Beverly Fort Frye (4-0) 98.3
Updated 9/20/2015 2:50 PM
Week 4 complete

Rankings
#39 of 108 in Division VI
#8 of 27 in Region 21
Eitel team page

Schedule and results
W1: W 26-6 H #609 Belpre (2-2, D7 R25), pick: W by 9
W2: W 39-6 H #655 Newcomerstown (0-4, D6 R21), pick: W by 16
W3: W 27-0 A #652 Waterford (1-3, D7 R25), pick: W by 25
W4: W 28-13 A #515 Johnstown Northridge (3-1, D5 R16), pick: W by 1
W5: A #425 Monroe Central (2-2, D6 R21) 52% W (1 pts)
W6: A #667 New Matamoras Frontier (2-2, D7 R25) 93% W (26 pts)
W7: H #595 Buckeye Trail (1-3, D7 R25) 88% W (20 pts)
W8: H #249 Caldwell (4-0, D7 R25) 69% L (9 pts)
W9: A #573 Shenandoah (3-1, D7 R25) 80% W (15 pts)
W10: A Wirt County [WV] (2-2, D6)

Strength of schedule
(no future, non-OHSAA, or playoff games)
Overall 0.117, #673 toughest (of 720)
As a D6 team, #103 toughest (of 108)

Regular season projections
Projected record 8-2
14.70 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #7 seed in R21 playoffs

Win probabilities:
6W-2% 7W-14% 8W-37% 9W-36% 10W-10%

Playoff chance
85% now (bubble if 7-3) (control own destiny)
39% chance of a home game
97% with a win in next game, and 72% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: no playoff berth
6W: 10.90 (8.50-15.00), 7% in, not home, proj. out
7W: 12.75 (9.10-17.50), 41% in, 1% home, proj. out (#2-out)
8W: 14.70 (11.50-19.95), 87% in, 13% home, proj. #7 (#1-out)
9W: 17.25 (14.00-21.60), 99% in, 66% home, proj. #4 (#1-out)
10W: 20.50 (17.70-23.55), 100% in, 99% home, proj. #2 (#1-#6)

[Senatorz10]

Im seeing some decent seperation between 8th and 9th. Valley is really gonna rack up some good 1st and 2nd level points from Raceland. As well likely from East.

[bsee12345]

Grandview Hts is a team in this region that could end up #1 or not making the playoffs.
They have an experienced team and are currently 3-1. Week 5 has them at 4-0 London. London has been the surprise team
of the Mid State League in my opinion- London has put some big offensive numbers so far.
Grandview still has to play West Jefferson- who record is 1-3 but has great tradition. Also Grandview has to face Bexley, which I think
will be a very tough game for Grandview. 3-1 Madison Plains and 1-3 Whitehall are also left for the Bobcats.

Grandview could go 8-2 and be top 3 in the region or 5-5 and needing alot of help.

Realitically I see Grandview beating Whitehall, West Jefferson and Madison Plains. London and Bexley could be tough ones for Grandview and finish
7-3 and should hopefully get them a home playoff game. Dont sleep on Grandview Hts.

[EasternDspy]

Valley is the class of this region and it ain't close other then that the rest of it is wide open.

[EasternDspy]

Fort Frye beats Monroe Central and picked up a ton of 2nd level points. Crab you have an update

[danicalifornia]

Paint Valley will have their last big point game next week against Zane Trace. Winner goes 10-0, loser will finish 9-1. Those two are well above the rest of the SVC.

They are well coached and have a ton of experience, it's a pretty solid team. No clue about anyone else in their region besides Valley, so I can't objectively say how good they are in comparison.

[EasternDspy]

Can't wait to see the standings I'm guessing top 3 stays the same.

[EasternDspy]

Grandview Heights might move up with win over (4-0) London

[bsee12345]

Grandview Hts beat previously undefeated London Friday night 41-27. London has a stud running back that is big and very quick but the Bobcats were able to keep
London's quick strike offense off the field with much longer scoring drives. Big win for the Bobcats.
Grandview should have 7.95 points when rankings are released. Next up is 2-3 Whitehall, who upset Columbus Academy 35-21 on Friday night.

[Crab's Brother]

Ran through the top several teams in the region (stopped at Peake-they play tonight).

1. Valley 9.9
2. Paint Valley 9.15
3. Fort Frye 8.25
4. Grandview Heights 7.95
5. Newark Catholic 6.17
6. River 6.08
7. Fredericktown 5.97

[sballchck]

Both the Chesapeake/Warren game and the Oak Hill/Notre Dame game will affect Chesapeake's standing. Wins by Peake and Oak Hill could put Chesapeake at #5, if my math is right.

If both Warren and Notre Dame win, then there will be a new #8 team in this region

[EasternDspy]

Peake won't lose to Warren they are awful.

[nutronron2012]

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions



Region 21 playoff berth probabilities
Updated 10/1/2015 9:03 AM
Week 5 complete
F50 region 21 home
Region 21 Harbin projections
Eitel region page

Locks or near-locks (99%+)
1. Lucasville Valley (5-0) (need 6-3)
2. Paint Valley (5-0) (need 7-3)

Likely playoff teams
3. Beverly Fort Frye (5-0) 98% (need 7-3)
4. Grandview Heights (4-1) 93% (bubble if 6-4)
5. Hannibal River (4-1) 80% (bubble if 7-3)

Contenders
6. Fredericktown (4-1) 74% (need 8-2)
7. Chesapeake (4-1) 56% (need 7-3)
8. Newark Catholic (4-1) 54% (need 7-3)
(Top 8 earn a playoff berth)
9. Centerburg (3-2) 34% (need 8-2)
10. Columbus Ready (3-2) 34% (need 6-4)
11. Barnesville (4-1) 34% (need 8-2)

Longshots
12. Dawson-Bryant (2-3) 9% (bubble if 6-4)
13. Frankfort Adena (3-2) 9% (bubble if 7-3)
14. Monroe Central (2-3) 8% (need 7-3)
15. Cardington-Lincoln (3-2) 7% (need 8-2)
16. West Jefferson (1-4) 6% (need 6-4)

Not realistic contenders (<2%)
17. Steubenville CC (1-4) (bubble if 6-4)
18. Crooksville (2-3) (need 7-3)
19. Berne Union (2-3)
20. Bellaire (1-4)
21. Galion Northmor (2-3)
22. Newcomerstown (1-4)
23. Marion Elgin (2-3)
24. East Knox (0-5)
25. Chillicothe Huntington (0-5)
26. Chillicothe Southeastern (1-4)
27. Milford Center Fairbanks (0-5)

[EasternDspy]

Paint Valley(5-0) @ Zane Trace (5-0) Also Heath (3-2) @ Newark Catholic (4-1)

[sballchck]

Paint Valley(5-0) @ Zane Trace (5-0) Also Heath (3-2) @ Newark Catholic (4-1)

Zane Trace beats Paint Valley
Is there a Newark Catholic/Heath score?

Lucasville, Fort Frye, Grandview Heights, Chesapeake & Dawson Bryant win. Any other results from up North?

[EasternDspy]

River 22 Tyler 16