Region 21 - 2015

[EasternDspy]

Valley, Paint Valley , Fort Frye , Grandview Heights all win

[sballchck]

Chesapeake wins
Coal Grove and Newark Catholic lose
I don't know about River Barnesville or Fredricktown

[EasternDspy]

Barnesville lost to SCC 12-13

[EasternDspy]

I miss Crabs updates lol don't make us wait for Joe

[anderson2012]

Conjecture, but I think we have a much better picture of what is going on now.

West Jeff - eliminated.
Barnesville - all but eliminated. Pasteur had them at 15% with a loss tonight. However, with the developments regarding Bellaire St. John and their forfeits, I think the Shamrocks' chances have dropped from 15 to 1% given that BSJ was supposed to be a points cow for Barnesville. Barnesville will probably lose to Monroe Central, which was anticipated to be their second and last loss on the season.

Coal Grove - not looking as good with the loss to Ironton.

Newark Catholic - even with the loss to Johnstown, they're looking better than they did last week. I'm not quite sure how Utica (Division 5) beating Heath (Division 4) may help the Green Wave, but 7-3 is not just attainable but also viable for a top 8 spot.

Fredericktown - beat Centerburg... looking at 9-1 probably. Should be good for the top 8

Should be good for the top 8: Valley, Grandview, Paint Valley, Newark Catholic, Fredericktown, Fort Frye, and River. I think the top 8 would have been solidified tonight had Adena beaten Zane Trace (they were close) and finished 7-3. By the way, I listed those seven teams in no real order.

[EasternDspy]

Well someone has to claim that 8 spot most likely Chesapeake.

[EasternDspy]

It's looking like Fort Frye at minimum wins 9.

[sballchck]

Thougts from Lawrence County Island on the 8th spot:

I think at least one 7-3 Team and one 8-2 Team gets in.

I think this will come down to second level points:

Chesapeake controls their own destiny. At 7-3, they will need some help, but remember the Peake is racking up a lot of second level points from Alexander, Oak Hill and Symmes Valley. AND believe it or not if Warren beats Gallia then that game could give enough second level points to get the 8th spot at 7-3. If Peake goes 8-2, which is possible, then I think they are definitely in the top 8.

Coal Grove is out of the playoff hunt, and could play spoiler for the Peake in Week 10, if Chesapeake falls in week 8-at Portsmouth or 9-home v Ironton or both, then the Week 10 match up of Chesapeake at Coal Grove could be make or break for Chesapeake.

Coal Grove still has a shot at sharing the OVC, if Chesapeake knocks off Ironton, and the Coal Grove runs the table.

Bottom Line: Whoever gets that 8th spot, they will have to earn it by winning.

[EasternDspy]

Top 8 qualify for playoffs
Rank W-L ID # City School Average Level 1 Level 2 L2 divisor
1 7-0 1586 Lucasville Valley 14.6357 30.0 103.5 100
2 6-1 664 Columbus Grandview Heights 11.8997 28.5 77.5 99
3 7-0 598 Beverly Fort Frye 11.6357 26.5 78.5 100
4 6-1 1226 Bainbridge Paint Valley 11.5214 25.0 79.5 100
5 6-1 362 Chesapeake Chesapeake 10.0188 27.0 61.0 99
6 6-1 1306 Hannibal River 9.2347 22.5 59.0 98
7 6-1 614 Fredericktown Fredericktown 8.6934 25.5 50.0 99
8 5-2 1090 Newark Newark Catholic 7.8016 23.5 44.0 99
9 3-3 220 Columbus Bishop Ready 7.6667 16.0 50.0 100
10 5-2 162 Barnesville Barnesville 7.0664 18.0 44.5 99
11 5-2 314 Cardington Cardington-Lincoln 6.6571 20.0 38.0 100
12 3-4 458 Coal Grove Dawson-Bryant 6.0491 13.0 41.5 99
13 3-4 334 Centerburg Centerburg 5.5736 12.5 37.5 99
14 3-4 1063 Woodsfield Monroe Central 5.2429 11.5 36.0 100
15 3-4 326 Steubenville Catholic Central 5.1905 13.0 33.0 99
16 4-3 102 Frankfort Adena 4.7714 18.0 22.0 100
17 3-4 442 Crooksville Crooksville 4.1571 13.0 23.0 100
18 2-5 1682 West Jefferson West Jefferson 3.5429 8.0 24.0 100
19 2-5 1096 Newcomerstown Newcomerstown 3.1500 7.0 21.5 100
20 2-5 204 Sugar Grove Berne Union 2.2662 9.5 9.0 99
21 2-5 524 Marion Elgin 2.0500 7.0 10.5 100
22 2-5 1144 Galion Northmor 1.5678 8.5 3.5 99
23 1-5 182 Bellaire Bellaire 0.8333 5.0 0.0 99
24 1-6 1450 Chillicothe Southeastern 0.5000 3.5 0.0 100
25 0-7 498 Howard East Knox 0.0000 0.0 0.0 99
- 0-7 544 Milford Center Fairbanks 0.0000 0.0 0.0 100
- 0-7 744 Chillicothe Huntington 0.0000 0.0 0.0 100

[Crab's Brother]

This region is down to what looks like 9 teams for the 8 spots. It appears 4 teams are virtual locks in Valley, Paint Valley, Fort Frye, and Grandview. I think barring a major collapse River and Fredericktown are in as well, so it looks like it is down to Peake, Newark Catholic, and Ready for the 7 and 8 spots.

Here is my thoughts going into week 8:

1-4...I think the four "locks" are also pretty solid for a home game.

1. Valley - I think there total will be between 22.27-27.44 depending on how the Burg game goes. A win there and they are #1 and it isn't even a question. A loss and they can be caught.

2. Paint Valley - If they have a chance to win this region, their last three games should not be close. I am predicting them with a 20.55 final total. That would go down with a Williamsburg collapse. Unless Raceland falls flat, I don't see Paint Valley catching Valley.

3. Grandview Heights - These guys appear to be playing some really nice football. Their total will be determined by their finale with Bexley. I don't think they lose between now and then so that would be the game that seeds them. Bexley is a big school but doesn't really play a good D3 schedule so it is hard to say just how good they are. If Grandview wins out and Valley loses to Wheelersburg, it will come down probably what Centennial and Raceland do down the stretch on 2nd level points for the one seed. At 9-1 I have Grandview at 22.53 while at 8-2 I have them at 18.35.

4. Fort Frye - The Cadets final number will basically be determined this weekend against Caldwell. A win and I have them finishing ahead of Paint Valley and a 8-2 Grandview (They won't pass 9-1 Grandview). I have them at 21.93 with 10 wins. A loss to Caldwell and I have them at 17.99. I know there are a few FF posters on here...Are they better than the team from two season ago that Valley handled 52-14 in week 11?

5. River - Not really sure how good this team is as the schedule is pretty weak, but they will finish at 9-1 barring an upset. Kinda hard to judge there L2 points because of the WV teams they have beaten, but I have them at 16.36 with a final average. I can't see them catching anyone for a home game without one of the others getting upset. I should reserve judgement, but I don't think any of the other teams would be upset with a first round matchup with the Pilots.

6. Fredericktown - The Freddies do have two what look to be (on paper) fairly tough matchups with Highland and Cardington-Lincoln. If they win out they are in at 9-1. At that record they will finish in the ballpark of 17.74. They would then close the gap and could potentially catch a 9-1 Fort Frye team for the final home game. This would probably send the Cadets to Knox County in early November.

7. Ready - The Knights knocked off LCC the other night and they are now way back in the conversation. I have no idea how their next 3 games will go. 2 wins the next two weeks and they will probably sneak in. Win out and they could come steal a home game. I don't see them beating Hartley, but a win this week and I will run their numbers. For now, Chesapeake and Newark Catholic are big Linsly and St Mary's CC fans.

8. Newark Catholic - The Green Wave's playoff hopes will come down to week 10 against Watkins Memorial. This could be rough on some other teams in the region as that game will be on a Saturday night. If Watkins wins their next two games they could also be playing for a playoff spot so that could be a huge game. If the Green Wave win out and finish at 8-2 I have their point total at 17.43. They could also challenge for a home game if the right teams pick up points for them.

9. Chesapeake - The Panthers still have some work to do with Ironton and Coal Grove left to play. If they win out, I have them at 18.79 and that would catch 8-2 Grandview as well as 9-1 FF. At 8-2, I have the Peake at 15.85 and they should still sneak in unless the 3 teams ahead of them all win out.

Of course every game matters and crazy things happen, but here are the "most important" games for the region the rest of the way.

Week 8:

Grandview @ Madison Plains
Caldwell @ Fort Frye
Lutheran East @ River
Ready @ Linsly (Saturday)
Fredericktown @ HIghland

Week 9:

Wheelersburg @ Valley
Ironton @ Chesapeake
Ready @ St Mary's Central Catholic

Week 10:

Valley @ Minford
Bexley @ Grandview Heights
Chesapeake @ Coal Grove
Hartley @ Ready
Fredericktown @ Cardington-Lincoln
Watkins Memorial @ Newark Catholic (Saturday)

[Senatorz10]

As for Valley when it comes to Raceland. The Rams have Fairview, Paintsville and Russell. Fairview should be an easy win for Raceland. Now as for #1 1A Ranked Paintsville im not sure. Last week Paintsville beat Fairview 32-12.. but the 12 points camy by JV Squad late. As for Russell its a toss up. But I think Raceland can beat Fairview and Russell... Paintsville is their last BIG Test.

[EasternDspy]

The Fort Frye team Valley beat 2 years ago was pretty much a 1 man team ( Chandler Lang). This years team is a lot deeper, bigger and more physical. They have way more weapons but do have a freshman QB. He is going to be really good and has performed great. Sr DL Anthony Winters comes in with 14 sacks and they 2 big tackles Baker 6-2 (265) and Matheny 6-0 (260) help protect the QB. RB Casey Lewis has over 800 total yards and 12 tds. Next season the Cadets will have 16 Srs.

[EasternDspy]

Side note Fort is hoping for River in week 11 the Pilots use to play in the PVC and dropped Fort Frye. I think it be funny for them to have to come to Beverly. That being said out of the playoff teams listed they probably want Fort Frye 2.

[Black Mamba 24]

Side note Fort is hoping for River in week 11 the Pilots use to play in the PVC and dropped Fort Frye. I think it be funny for them to have to come to Beverly. That being said out of the playoff teams listed they probably want Fort Frye 2.

I would love for the Cadets to punish River in Week 11. I do think that if they don't get this draw though they are in for a tough task.

[EasternDspy]

Fort Frye will go (10-0)

[EasternDspy]

Does Fort get the 1 seed?

[sballchck]

Does Fort get the 1 seed?

Not if Valley beats Wheelersburg on 10/23/15, I think.

[seowrestler]

Looking like Fort Frye will play Newark Catholic in the first round.