Interesting Post About SEC and Big10 Scheduling

[Orestes]

This is not my work:

"In the last decade (1998-2007), non-conference games outside of the Southeast, SEC teams are 10-24 (0.294) against all opponents, "decent" or not. The 10 wins come against Hawaii, Indiana (x2), SMU, Arizona, Arizona State, BYU, Notre Dame, Syracuse, and Texas -- four of those ten teams were good enough to go to bowls in the years when SEC teams beat them.

Note that this boils down to about 0.08 wins per SEC team per year, out of 0.28 away games per SEC team per year -- the average SEC teams plays a road non-conference game outside the Southeast every 3.5 years -- and wins one road non-conference game outside the Southeast every 12 years(!), and one road non-conference game outside the Southeast against a bowl-bound team every 30 years(!).

Note also that some SEC teams (Georgia and Florida) do not have a single non-conference game outside the southeast in the entire decade, while South Carolina has only one, and only one team has more than 4 (Mississippi State with 5).

Alabama: 1-3
Hawaii (L), 2003; Oklahoma (L), 2002; Hawaii (W*) 2002; UCLA (L) 2000

Arkansas: 1-1
USC (L), 2005; Texas (W*) 2003

Auburn: 0-2
USC (L) 2002; Syracuse (L) 2001

Florida: 0-0

Georgia: 0-0

Kentucky: 2-2
Indiana (L) 2005; Indiana (W) 2003; Indiana (L) 2001; Indiana (W) 1999

Louisiana State: 2-2
Arizona State (W*) 2005; Arizona (W) 2003; Virginia Tech (L) 2002; Notre Dame (L) 1998

Mississippi: 1-3
Missouri (L) 2006; Wyoming (L) 2004; Texas Tech (L) 2002; SMU (W) 1998

Mississippi State: 1-4
West Virginia (L) 2007; Houston (L) 2003; Oregon (L) 2002; BYU (W) 2000; Oklahoma State (L) 1998

South Carolina: 0-1
Virginia (L) 2002;

Tennessee: 2-2
Cailfornia (L) 2007; Notre Dame (L) 2005; Notre Dame (W) 2001; Syracuse (W*) 1998

Vanderbilt: 0-4
Michigan (L) 2006; Navy (L) 2004; TCU (L) 2003; TCU (L) 1998

For comparison's sake, over the same time span, Big Ten teams are 38-34 (0.528) in non-conference games played outside the Midwest. The Big Ten has more out-of-area wins than the SEC has out-of-area games, despite having one less member. (If we scaled the record by 12/11 to account for that, 38-34 becomes 41-37.)

That's 0.35 wins per Big Ten team per year over the decade, and 0.65 games outside the midwest per Big Ten team per year. The average Big Ten team plays outside the midwest more than twice as often (two games per three years) as the average SEC team plays outside the southeast. The Big Ten wins twice as large a percentage of their games -- which yields four times the winning rate (one win per 3 years per team on average, instead of one per 12 years).

Note also that only one Big Ten team (Michigan State with 3) played fewer than 4 games outside the Midwest over the decade. Illinois played 8, Indiana 9, Minnesota 7, Northwestern 13, Ohio State 6, and Wisconsin 9. All by themselves (Texas, Arizona, West Virginia, Washington, N.C. State) Ohio State pretty much matches the entire SEC's five most impressive non-conference out-of-area wins.

Illinois: 3-5
Syracuse (W) 2007; Rutgers (L) 2006; California (L) 2005; UCLA (L) 2003; Southern Miss (L) 2002; San Diego State (W) 2000; Louisville (W*) 1999; Washington State (L) 1998 (note: I didn't count Missouri games played in St. Louis, which is a neutral site in between Illinois and Missouri).

Indiana: 1-8
Oregon (W) 2004; Kentucky (L) 2004; Connecticut (L) 2003; Washington (L) 2003; Utah (L) 2002; Kentucky (L) 2002; N.C. State (L) 2001; Kentucky (L) 2000; Kentucky (L) 1998;

Iowa: 1-3
Syracuse (W) 2006; Arizona State (L) 2004; Nebraska (L) 2000; Arizona (L) 1998;

Michigan: 1-3
Oregon (L) 2003; Washington (L) 2001; UCLA (L) 2000; Syracuse (W*) 1999;

Michigan State: 1-2
Rutgers (L) 2004; Missouri (W) 2000; Oregon (L) 1998

Minnesota: 5-2
Florida Atlantic (L) 2007; California (L) 2006; Tulsa (W*) 2005; Colorado State (W) 2004; Louisiana-Lafayette (W) 2002; Baylor (W) 2000; Houston (W) 1998

Northwestern: 8-5
Nevada (L) 2006; Arizona State (L) 2005; TCU (L) 2004; Kansas (W*) 2003; Duke (W) 2003; Air Force (L) 2002; Navy (W) 2002; UNLV (W) 2001; Duke (W) 2001; TCU (L) 2000; Duke (W) 1999; Rice (W) 1998; Hawaii (W) 1998

Ohio State: 5-1
Washington (W) 2007; Texas (W*) 2006; N.C. State (W) 2004; UCLA (L) 2001; Arizona (W) 2000; West Virginia (W*) 1998

Penn State: 2-3
Temple (W) 2007; Boston College (L) 2005; Nebraska (L) 2003; Virginia (L) 2001; Miami-Florida (W*) 1999

Purdue: 3-1
Hawaii (L) 2006; Arizona (W) 2005; Wake Forest (W) 2003; Central Florida (W) 1999;

Wisconsin: 8-1
UNLV (W) 2007; North Carolina (W) 2005; Hawaii (W) 2005; Arizona (W) 2004; West Virginia (W*) 2003; UNLV (W) 2002; Oregon (L) 2001; Hawaii (W) 2000; San Diego State (W*) 1998;

Anyway, to those who made it this far: My theory as to why SEC teams don't play outside the Southeast is: 0.294. "

[X8XOHIOLEGENDX7X]

wow cool article..

[Tigercannon71]

Thats a pretty good article, but way to many numbers.

[Joe Strummer]

All this says is the Big 10 is willing to travel farther to find an easy win:)

[qualified101]

[Orestes]

:roll:

Very interesting and compelling argument.

[tubby]

In the same decade, sec has 4 national titles compared to 1 for big 10

[Orestes]

In the same decade, sec has 4 national titles compared to 1 for big 10

Nice. Here we go.

I have always stood that the SEC is the strongest conference. However, I do not believe it is by much. It is a lot closer than SEC fans would like you to think. I also believe it goes in cycles.

I even had a UF grad and fan tell me that he feels most SEC teams would be brutalized in the Big10 during November, because they are built for nice weather offense and nothing but speed on defense. Meanwhile, the Big10 teams need to be able to sled it out in the nasty conditions, and they need to be able to stop the other teams that try to sled it out on them. However, bowl games (which are even between the conferences the last 10 years anyway) and national title games are in "perfect" conditions.

[qualified101]

could you please enlighten everybody when the last time osu beat an sec team? i dont know is why im asking. i know they were throttled last year, and i remember tennessee beating them in a bowl game a few years back(i think the excuse was they wore longer cleats than us). just wondering.

[Orestes]

could you please enlighten everybody when the last time osu beat an sec team? i dont know is why im asking. i know they were throttled last year, and i remember tennessee beating them in a bowl game a few years back(i think the excuse was they wore longer cleats than us). just wondering.

That should decide which conference is better and by how much? Please. Don't pretend to be that stupid. You are talking about a handful of bowl games, spread out over decades. Yes, that is a very good argument. All that tells you is that OSU has a hard time beating SEC teams in bowl games, which is not the subject in this thread. Though, I did mention the nice weather and the two conferences recruiting and preparing differently for the style of play due to the weather they will face.

Anyway, the last time was probably LSU in the early Cooper-years.

Tell me, why can the SEC not beat the Big East? Why can they not win out west? I see you avoided the argument the UF fan made above in my post.

[YOU'RE TIGER BAIT]

VERY COOL READING. WITH OHIO STATE PLAYING THE LIKES OF USC FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF YEARS, AS WELL AS MIAMI FLA. SINCE THEY HAD THE TOP RECRUITING CLASS IN THE COUNTRY, THEY PLAY OSU. STARING IN 2010. THAT SHOULD STOP THIS RIDICULOUS STUFF ABOUT OHIO STATE PLAYING NOBODIES, WHICH IS CRAP. THE BIG TEN, IS VERY TOUGH TO WIN, ESP. OUTRIGHT.

[qualified101]

NOW THATS FUNNY!(the big ten being tough to win). its really no secret that i despise osu but they should have no problem and i mean no problem winning the big ten. if they beat usc, which they should, osu will probably be in the nc game barring any serious injuries. it will most likely will be against an sec team. a legit question, is this team better than the nc team that won 3 years ago? that team was great team imo. if this osu team is better, then they will probably win it all this season. if not, could be any of 4-5 teams. there could be a big 12 spoiler this year. should be another great college football season.

[mohawkbaseball#1]

NOW THATS FUNNY!(the big ten being tough to win). its really no secret that i despise osu but they should have no problem and i mean no problem winning the big ten. if they beat usc, which they should, osu will probably be in the nc game barring any serious injuries. it will most likely will be against an sec team. a legit question, is this team better than the nc team that won 3 years ago? that team was great team imo. if this osu team is better, then they will probably win it all this season. if not, could be any of 4-5 teams. there could be a big 12 spoiler this year. should be another great college football season.

that great OSU team had a tough time making it through the big ten, if the big ten is such a joke, then why such a hard time

[qualified101]

please just answer the question. was that team better or is this years team better? i dont know, you guys tell me.

[Orestes]

please just answer the question. was that team better or is this years team better? i dont know, you guys tell me.

QB: 2008
RB: 2008 (close but I'll assume Wells stays healthy and 08 has much better depth)
WR: 2008
OL: 2008
TE: Push
P: 2002
K: Push (that season Nugent was < 2004 season)

DL: 2002 (not close as of now, but hopefully much close than 07 v. 02)
LB: 2008
CB: 2008 (barely because of what was after the top 2)
S: Push (08 better in coverage, 02 better against run)

[qualified101]

thx orestes. it sounds like this years team could be the team to beat. based on the current line in vegas (osu+5) osu is not getting any love out west. this seems like a no brainer to me to take the buckeyes and the points. the big ten could go a long way to improving its image with wins against usc, ucla and oregon in the first few weeks of the season. any thoughts?

[Orestes]

thx orestes. it sounds like this years team could be the team to beat. based on the current line in vegas (osu+5) osu is not getting any love out west. this seems like a no brainer to me to take the buckeyes and the points. the big ten could go a long way to improving its image with wins against usc, ucla and oregon in the first few weeks of the season. any thoughts?

I agree with you about image in regards to OSU. However, the Big10 will not earn any respect by the other Big10 teams winning. The Big10 is split evenly with the SEC in head to head games in bowl games during the last ten years (teams ranked on par with one another within their conferences, and ten years is a really good sample size), but the SEC is considered far superior because of two wins over OSU. The primetime games, like OSU/USC, are all the sheep and hype machines who lead them will remember.

Even then, it doesn't take much for the success to be forgotten ie. OSU v Miami when OSU was supposed to be abused. That was 6 years ago, but now OSU is overrated garbage, along with the rest of the Big10 that battled them all the way.