region 23 after week 8 playoff projections

[Crab's Brother]

Here is what I have it as projected:

1 Fort Frye 27.87
2 West Jeff 24.51
3 Northmor 21.04 (This is with them winning out)
4 Fairland 20.01
5 Africentric 18.20
6 Barnesville 17.48 (Winning out)
7 SV 14.91 (Loses to NW)
8 Nelsonville 14.04
9 Worthington Christ 11.49
10 Centerburg 9.77
11 Coal Grove 8.02 (Beating RH)
12 Kipp 7.91 (Beating FC but not Ready)
13 Valley 7.52 (Northwest winning out)
14 Buckeye Trail 5.95
15 Northridge 5.89
16 Fredricktown 5.88
17 Elgin 5.04
18 Mount Gilead 4.04
19 Grandview Heights 3.89
20 Rock Hill 2.9375 (5.868 if they beat GC they could slide in)
21 Sheanandoah 2.868

I am not going to post all of the "assumptions", but I have my work so fire away with questions.

If Barnesville loses their last game of the season and Symmes Valley wins out, would SV have enough points to jump Barnesville?

If Barnesville loses to Union Local in week 10 they will end up at about 14.44 final average.

Symmes Valley winning out is 17.78.

[Crab's Brother]

Here is what I have it as projected:

1 Fort Frye 27.87
2 West Jeff 24.51
3 Northmor 21.04 (This is with them winning out)
4 Fairland 20.01
5 Africentric 18.20
6 Barnesville 17.48 (Winning out)
7 SV 14.91 (Loses to NW)
8 Nelsonville 14.04
9 Worthington Christ 11.49
10 Centerburg 9.77
11 Coal Grove 8.02 (Beating RH)
12 Kipp 7.91 (Beating FC but not Ready)
13 Valley 7.52 (Northwest winning out)
14 Buckeye Trail 5.95
15 Northridge 5.89
16 Fredricktown 5.88
17 Elgin 5.04
18 Mount Gilead 4.04
19 Grandview Heights 3.89
20 Rock Hill 2.9375 (5.868 if they beat GC they could slide in)
21 Sheanandoah 2.868

I am not going to post all of the "assumptions", but I have my work so fire away with questions.

The kipp-fisher game is cancelled

If Kipp doesn't play this week, I have them at 6.37. So still in.

[svac83]

i have KIPP at 5.79 if they don't play. But when it comes to this region crabs brother knows these teams much better then i do and is usually closer on level 2 points

[svac83]

updated kipp columbus clinches playoff spot with forfeot win. Do we know how this game became a forfeit instead of a cancel?

[EasternDspy]

updated kipp columbus clinches playoff spot with forfeot win. Do we know how this game became a forfeit instead of a cancel?

Joe has it a forfeit win

[svac83]

updated kipp columbus clinches playoff spot with forfeot win. Do we know how this game became a forfeit instead of a cancel?

Joe has it a forfeit win

yea i was just curious it said cancelled for like 2 days now says forfeit win. Was wondering how that had been different from all other games this year.

[formerfcfan]

Not playing a D6 with D4-D5 enrollment on the most recent Ohio Department of Education boys count. Misled, big time, when the deal was inked.

KIPP can have the forfeit win; we'll take the 'L.' DGAF.

We were locked-in at #10 in Region 25 @ 5-5 and L2 divisor 91 or 5-4 and L2 divisor 80 -- so it wasn't playoff spot maneuvering the decision to cancel. We gave them notice Monday AM.

[EasternDspy]

Not playing a D6 with D4-D5 enrollment on the most recent Ohio Department of Education boys count. Misled, big time, when the deal was inked.

KIPP can have the forfeit win; we'll take the 'L.' DGAF.

We were locked-in at #10 in Region 25 @ 5-5 and L2 divisor 91 or 5-4 and L2 divisor 80 -- so it wasn't playoff spot maneuvering the decision to cancel. We gave them notice Monday AM.

So Fisher decided not to play them because they lied about enrollment? How long has Kipp been around never heard much about them ?

[formerfcfan]

Not playing a D6 with D4-D5 enrollment on the most recent Ohio Department of Education boys count. Misled, big time, when the deal was inked.

KIPP can have the forfeit win; we'll take the 'L.' DGAF.

We were locked-in at #10 in Region 25 @ 5-5 and L2 divisor 91 or 5-4 and L2 divisor 80 -- so it wasn't playoff spot maneuvering the decision to cancel. We gave them notice Monday AM.

So Fisher decided not to play them because they lied about enrollment? How long has Kipp been around never heard much about them ?

OHSAA is using the numbers from so long ago (2018?) for EMIS. KIPP was created in 2016 or 2017, something like that. They grew. And they grew a lot. They will not be D6 in 2022. Based on what I have in front of me, they could be D4 on pure EMIS alone next year.

http://education.ohio.gov/Topics/Data/F ... lment-Data

Row 108, tab 'fy21_hdcnt_cs' on the Fall Enrollment (Headcount) - October 2020 Public Districts and Buildings spreadsheet.

Column N: 148 ('25
Column O: 135 ('24
Column P: 134 ('23

If we are to presume its a 1:1 female-male ratio, then 417 x.50 = 209 boys (which is the cutoff line between D4 and D5 this year.) I divided the sum of the boys in the school, 953 [Column AE] by 13 and it gave me 73 boys per class, which also puts them on pace to be in that D4 stratum on simple boys' enrollment (before Competitive Balance.)


Note: My contention is we were misled by them as to how big their school and program is. Not that they misrepresented themselves to the OHSAA for classification purposes.

[svac83]

Not playing a D6 with D4-D5 enrollment on the most recent Ohio Department of Education boys count. Misled, big time, when the deal was inked.

KIPP can have the forfeit win; we'll take the 'L.' DGAF.

We were locked-in at #10 in Region 25 @ 5-5 and L2 divisor 91 or 5-4 and L2 divisor 80 -- so it wasn't playoff spot maneuvering the decision to cancel. We gave them notice Monday AM.

So Fisher decided not to play them because they lied about enrollment? How long has Kipp been around never heard much about them ?

OHSAA is using the numbers from so long ago (2018?) for EMIS. KIPP was created in 2016 or 2017, something like that. They grew. And they grew a lot. They will not be D6 in 2022. Based on what I have in front of me, they could be D4 on pure EMIS alone next year.

http://education.ohio.gov/Topics/Data/F ... lment-Data

Row 108, tab 'fy21_hdcnt_cs' on the Fall Enrollment (Headcount) - October 2020 Public Districts and Buildings spreadsheet.

Column N: 148 ('25
Column O: 135 ('24
Column P: 134 ('23

If we are to presume its a 1:1 female-male ratio, then 417 x.50 = 209 boys (which is the cutoff line between D4 and D5 this year.) I divided the sum of the boys in the school, 953 [Column AE] by 13 and it gave me 73 boys per class, which also puts them on pace to be in that D4 stratum on simple boys' enrollment (before Competitive Balance.)


Note: My contention is we were misled by them as to how big their school and program is. Not that they misrepresented themselves to the OHSAA for classification purposes.

ok so my guess is it was cancelled and basically the two schools had a agreement that if KIPP found game it would be a cancel but if they didnt it would be a forfeit? or did joe just not fond out it was a forfeit to yesterday?

[formerfcfan]

So Fisher decided not to play them because they lied about enrollment? How long has Kipp been around never heard much about them ?

OHSAA is using the numbers from so long ago (2018?) for EMIS. KIPP was created in 2016 or 2017, something like that. They grew. And they grew a lot. They will not be D6 in 2022. Based on what I have in front of me, they could be D4 on pure EMIS alone next year.

http://education.ohio.gov/Topics/Data/F ... lment-Data

Row 108, tab 'fy21_hdcnt_cs' on the Fall Enrollment (Headcount) - October 2020 Public Districts and Buildings spreadsheet.

Column N: 148 ('25
Column O: 135 ('24
Column P: 134 ('23

If we are to presume its a 1:1 female-male ratio, then 417 x.50 = 209 boys (which is the cutoff line between D4 and D5 this year.) I divided the sum of the boys in the school, 953 [Column AE] by 13 and it gave me 73 boys per class, which also puts them on pace to be in that D4 stratum on simple boys' enrollment (before Competitive Balance.)


Note: My contention is we were misled by them as to how big their school and program is. Not that they misrepresented themselves to the OHSAA for classification purposes.

ok so my guess is it was cancelled and basically the two schools had a agreement that if KIPP found game it would be a cancel but if they didnt it would be a forfeit? or did joe just not fond out it was a forfeit to yesterday?

We never had an agreement to "forfeit" if KIPP didn't find an opponent. Schools don't agree to voluntarily forfeit -- forfeits come down through assignment by the OHSAA executive director's office.

Waiting to hear back from Joe. If OHSAA ruled it a forfeit, then KIPP had to have called them and turned the very rare Bylaw 7-1-7 "non-consenting" onto us.

[svac83]

Like i said just seemed odd so was curious what we find out

[formerfcfan]

Final Answer on KIPP/Fisher

OHSAA ruled it as a forfeit win last night after KIPP pursued it. It is what it is.

...in unrelated news, a vote in December to admit/deny KIPP into the MSL has been on the schedule for a couple weeks.

[sportsfan2015]

So with Kipp clinching a spot does that mean that Rock Hill is now pretty much eliminated even if they win out and beat Coal Grove next week?

Does anybody know the math on that ??

[EasternDspy]

Centerburg upset Northmor 14-12

[EasternDspy]

(3-5) Independence stomps africentric 42-6

[CAT21]

I think that this regions only true contenders are Fort Frye, West Jefferson, and Fairland. I don’t see any other team making it out of the region. I don’t think northmor is as good as their record shows, and seeing Africentric get blown out by a team with a losing record tells me they don’t have the discipline to get very far in the playoffs. If west Jefferson loses to mechanicsburg next week I’m going to go ahead and predict a rematch in the regional final with Fort Frye Vs Fairland, and I’m hoping that the fairland team this year has a better shot at making it a game.

[EasternDspy]

Heath gets a big win over Newark Catholic. I watched Heath get blown out by Zanesville. Fort Frye beat Zanesville.

[EasternDspy]

I think that this regions only true contenders are Fort Frye, West Jefferson, and Fairland. I don’t see any other team making it out of the region. I don’t think northmor is as good as their record shows, and seeing Africentric get blown out by a team with a losing record tells me they don’t have the discipline to get very far in the playoffs. If west Jefferson loses to mechanicsburg next week I’m going to go ahead and predict a rematch in the regional final with Fort Frye Vs Fairland, and I’m hoping that the fairland team this year has a better shot at making it a game.

Maybe it will be closer sense Fairland picked up all those Chesapeake kids.

[CAT21]

I think that this regions only true contenders are Fort Frye, West Jefferson, and Fairland. I don’t see any other team making it out of the region. I don’t think northmor is as good as their record shows, and seeing Africentric get blown out by a team with a losing record tells me they don’t have the discipline to get very far in the playoffs. If west Jefferson loses to mechanicsburg next week I’m going to go ahead and predict a rematch in the regional final with Fort Frye Vs Fairland, and I’m hoping that the fairland team this year has a better shot at making it a game.

Maybe it will be closer sense Fairland picked up all those Chesapeake kids.

I know your supposed to stay with the school you started with but honestly I can’t even blame those 3 kids. If they stayed at Chesapeake they would have had a horrible senior season, most definitely a losing record, and no chance to make playoffs. They moved to fairland to be part of something bigger for their final season, and I respect that.