There's a lot of misinformation or perhaps just a misguided perception on recruiting rankings, in general. Here is how 247 breaks down their ratings:
247Sports Rating Explanations
Five-stars (98-110 rating): The top 32 players in the country to mirror the 32 first round picks in the NFL Draft. These are 32 players that we believe are the most likely to be drafted in the first round from each recruiting class. The full list of 32 with five-star ratings typically isn’t complete until the final ranking. Any player with a rating of more than 100 is considered a “franchise player” and one that does not come around in every recruiting class.
Four-stars (90-97 rating): These are players that we believe are the most likely to produce college careers that get them drafted. By National Signing Day, this number is typically in the range of 350 prospects, roughly the top 10 percent of prospects in a given class.
Three-stars (80-89 rating): This is where the bulk of college football prospects are found and it incorporates a large range of ability levels, all of whom we consider as possible NFL players long term.
A high three-star (87-89): is considered a player with significant NFL upside who expect to be an impact college football player.
A mid three-star (84-86): is a player that we consider to be a capable starter for a Power Five football team and an impact player at the Group of Five level.
A low three-star (80-83): is a player that we consider to be a potential contributor at a Power Five program but a probable Group of Five starter with impact potential.
Two-stars (70-79 rating): These are prospects that we consider to be FBS-level players with very limited NFL potential.
247Sports Points of Emphasis in Evaluations
Due to our NFL Draft guiding principles, we take some cues as to trends and points of emphasis related to positional value and geographic origination. By our final Top247 and five-star release, we try to meet some standard thresholds for which regions typically produce the most players and which positions tend to get drafted at a higher rate and are valued higher than others.
Due to the extreme variance that characterizes high school football evaluations related to exposure, competition level, developmental stages and numerous other factors, we are mindful of the value of secondary athletic authentication such as track and field data, combine testing numbers and success in multiple sports.
Based on exhaustive analytical studies of NFL Draft results and retroactive looks at NFL Draft picks as high school prospects, we have established position-by-position principles that are most predictive of college football success that we use to inform our position rankings.
On top of this discussion was the discussion of premier programs (Ironton, etc) which they reflect in here saying the extreme variances of exposure. So that is accurate, which is why going out to camps and combines plays a big role in helping kids get seen.
There's been many a 2-star, 3-star to develop into a standout player. The recruiting rankings don't presume to be definitive. And, for what it's worth, their hit rate is far better than their misses. There hasn't been a national champion in the past two decades without a top 10 class, the Blue Chip rating has shown how accurate these evaluations can be. But, again, they're also choosing to go to schools with incredible developmental staffs and massive resources that assist them.
So, no, the ratings aren't a "joke" but they also aren't a guarantee on anything. Nobody suggests they are.
As for Novak himself, and I don't presume to be a scout of any kind, I have never been over the moon about his skills translating to the next level. I think he could be a MAC/G5 type of player, or maybe a smaller P5. He's got decent accuracy and a good frame he could develop into, so he's more of a project which is why some of the bigger schools may skip him when they have a lot more ready prospects available.
But it's ultimately up to him. If he grows into his body, adds more strength, refines his skills... he's got potential. Just like a hundred other QBs in the class. But just as a "recruit" today, I think 2-stars is probably on the money.
. Novak is easily the best player Jackson has played all year and it’s not close. Not sure about the arm strength , I get it , but watched him drop many passes on a dime 40 yards and over. I guess talent isn’t as important as where you go to high school and who your coach knows. It is all a mystery to me.
. Novak is easily the best player Jackson has played all year and it’s not close. Not sure about the arm strength , I get it , but watched him drop many passes on a dime 40 yards and over. I guess talent isn’t as important as where you go to high school and who your coach knows. It is all a mystery to me.
