They've had some large jumps in the past, look at 15-17 to 17-19. It's possible they've had another large jump.
Per OHSAA
2015-17 147
2017-19 175
2019-22 158
2022-24 176
They've had some large jumps in the past, look at 15-17 to 17-19. It's possible they've had another large jump.
Agree. If Burg is at 204 boys, after CB, they will be well into D4.TigerBob wrote: ↑Wed Feb 07, 2024 6:49 pm 1. What would be involved in the appeals process? I doubt Wheelersburg miscounted. And they aren’t going to lower the number they report to the state. So I’m not sure how that even works?
2. Given Wheelersburg’s CB number won’t be 0, this seems to put them squarely in D4. If that’s R16, Wheelersburg already beats McNick, one of the better programs in the region. If it’s 15, I guess Steubenville and possibly Harley are in the way, but neither are what they used to be. Would moving up even be bad?
Burg AD wouldn't appeal if he felt there wasn't something that needed addressed or if he was sure that they would stay in D5 regardless of CB.RBH23 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 07, 2024 8:30 pmAgree. If Burg is at 204 boys, after CB, they will be well into D4.TigerBob wrote: ↑Wed Feb 07, 2024 6:49 pm 1. What would be involved in the appeals process? I doubt Wheelersburg miscounted. And they aren’t going to lower the number they report to the state. So I’m not sure how that even works?
2. Given Wheelersburg’s CB number won’t be 0, this seems to put them squarely in D4. If that’s R16, Wheelersburg already beats McNick, one of the better programs in the region. If it’s 15, I guess Steubenville and possibly Harley are in the way, but neither are what they used to be. Would moving up even be bad?
As for moving up being worse? IHS and HP are probably better than most teams in R15 other than Clinton Massie and Wyoming. Those are really strong programs, but Burg is going to be an underdog to win the region regardless if D4 or D5. The northern D4 schools are really strong but so are the D5 schools. Again, Burg would be an underdog.
To answer your question: D4 and D5 are equally difficult for Burg.
I know and am well aware of the differences in quality of programs of Waverly and Wheelersburg but they would def like to be in R15 instead of R16. Stuebenville got absolutely housed by Alter in the final 4. And I’d say the depth of R16 is stout compared to R15TigerBob wrote: ↑Wed Feb 07, 2024 6:49 pm 1. What would be involved in the appeals process? I doubt Wheelersburg miscounted. And they aren’t going to lower the number they report to the state. So I’m not sure how that even works?
2. Given Wheelersburg’s CB number won’t be 0, this seems to put them squarely in D4. If that’s R16, Wheelersburg already beats McNick, one of the better programs in the region. If it’s 15, I guess Steubenville and possibly Harley are in the way, but neither are what they used to be. Would moving up even be bad?
Ironton should win the region every year if not the state with the southeastern Ohio all-star team and all the athletes with all these so called D1 offers.RBH23 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 5:40 pmIHS was a bigger school back then. Since they are now in the same division, Burg has a state title where IHS does not.Tri_State79 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 5:00 pmFurthermore Ironton has earned two titles in stronger divisions and against bigger schools and more talent in their history.Tri_State79 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 4:56 pm
To have an opportunity to win a state title, you first have to win your region. Burg has only won the region 3 times in over 25 years. Win or lose Ironton has been in more title games in the last 6 years than Burg has in school history. These two programs don't belong in the same sentence in football. Ironton is more consistent and earns way more opportunities. Ironton won 2 states titles in ten years. It took Burg their entire programs history to match that. Ironton will always earn itself more opportunities and success. The only thing similar about these two programs is geography. Ironton is trending up. Burg is falling off.
Comparing Ironton and Burg in football is asinine.
I have no idea how many football, basketball, baseball, and softball regional titles Burg has won. Not a clue. But I do know how many state championships they have won. Nothing wrong with regional titles, but Burg has cleared that hurdle many times in many sports. Burg wants the state title!!
So for IHS, a supposedly football power, to be bragging about D5 regional titles… well, that’s quite sad and shows how far the program has fallen.
But when Burg does win their region they make it count. If they have won their region 3 times in 25 years and the state titles in three attempts that’s a winning percentage of .667. What is irontons a winning percentage if they win the region? Guaranteed not that good. Getting there is one thing winning it all is another. Just like the old saying close but no cigar.Tri_State79 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 22, 2023 1:44 pmBut that math isn't matching for burgs program. If you have only made it beyond your region a total of 3 times in OVER 25 years and you have to make it past ya region to win a title, the mathematical probability of another Burg regional title, let alone a state title, is bordering anomaly status. Ironton on the other hand has been significantly more consistent on a year by year basis against better competition. Burg can't beat the good teams anymore. The program performance wise is trending down.RBH23 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 10:14 pmYet they are the team that has recently won a title. So much for all of IHS’ opportunities.Tri_State79 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:45 pm
You can't win state without winning regional and Burg simply doesn't create the opportunity.
Irontons mathematical probability is significantly higher. These two programs are trending in separate directions.
RBH: agreed...I don't see much of a difference for Burg between D5 and D4. Maybe a tougher opening round playoff game in D4. But with Harvest Prep and Ironton in Burg's D5 region, maybe a change of scenery come playoff time would be good for Burg.*RBH23 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 07, 2024 8:30 pmAgree. If Burg is at 204 boys, after CB, they will be well into D4.TigerBob wrote: ↑Wed Feb 07, 2024 6:49 pm 1. What would be involved in the appeals process? I doubt Wheelersburg miscounted. And they aren’t going to lower the number they report to the state. So I’m not sure how that even works?
2. Given Wheelersburg’s CB number won’t be 0, this seems to put them squarely in D4. If that’s R16, Wheelersburg already beats McNick, one of the better programs in the region. If it’s 15, I guess Steubenville and possibly Harley are in the way, but neither are what they used to be. Would moving up even be bad?
As for moving up being worse? IHS and HP are probably better than most teams in R15 other than Clinton Massie and Wyoming. Those are really strong programs, but Burg is going to be an underdog to win the region regardless if D4 or D5. The northern D4 schools are really strong but so are the D5 schools. Again, Burg would be an underdog.
To answer your question: D4 and D5 are equally difficult for Burg.
Good point. Less room for error with regards to computer points. Making the top 16 shouldn’t be an issue, but getting home field with 3 losses will be tough.CuckooNest wrote: ↑Thu Feb 08, 2024 7:28 am I think the biggest impact if they go to DIV is playoff seeding, especially if one or more SOC schools drop to DVI. Going to be much more difficult to get a home game in DIV than V with a schedule of DV and VI unless they have more early season success.
the appeal is just a recount from OHSAA.TigerBob wrote: ↑Wed Feb 07, 2024 6:49 pm 1. What would be involved in the appeals process? I doubt Wheelersburg miscounted. And they aren’t going to lower the number they report to the state. So I’m not sure how that even works?
2. Given Wheelersburg’s CB number won’t be 0, this seems to put them squarely in D4. If that’s R16, Wheelersburg already beats McNick, one of the better programs in the region. If it’s 15, I guess Steubenville and possibly Harley are in the way, but neither are what they used to be. Would moving up even be bad?
Couldn't get it done in D5 and jumping up a division isn't gonna help the cause.Valley91 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 08, 2024 6:35 amBut when Burg does win their region they make it count. If they have won their region 3 times in 25 years and the state titles in three attempts that’s a winning percentage of .667. What is irontons a winning percentage if they win the region? Guaranteed not that good. Getting there is one thing winning it all is another. Just like the old saying close but no cigar.Tri_State79 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 22, 2023 1:44 pmBut that math isn't matching for burgs program. If you have only made it beyond your region a total of 3 times in OVER 25 years and you have to make it past ya region to win a title, the mathematical probability of another Burg regional title, let alone a state title, is bordering anomaly status. Ironton on the other hand has been significantly more consistent on a year by year basis against better competition. Burg can't beat the good teams anymore. The program performance wise is trending down.
Irontons mathematical probability is significantly higher. These two programs are trending in separate directions.
Tri_State79 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 09, 2024 10:41 amCouldn't get it done in D5 and jumping up a division isn't gonna help the cause. Ironton and Burg program still trending in different directions and Ironton and Prep at d5 will put another significantly more talented product on the field than d4 Burg in 24Valley91 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 08, 2024 6:35 amBut when Burg does win their region they make it count. If they have won their region 3 times in 25 years and the state titles in three attempts that’s a winning percentage of .667. What is irontons a winning percentage if they win the region? Guaranteed not that good. Getting there is one thing winning it all is another. Just like the old saying close but no cigar.Tri_State79 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 22, 2023 1:44 pm
But that math isn't matching for burgs program. If you have only made it beyond your region a total of 3 times in OVER 25 years and you have to make it past ya region to win a title, the mathematical probability of another Burg regional title, let alone a state title, is bordering anomaly status. Ironton on the other hand has been significantly more consistent on a year by year basis against better competition. Burg can't beat the good teams anymore. The program performance wise is trending down.
Irontons mathematical probability is significantly higher. These two programs are trending in separate directions.
The numbers the ohsaa is putting out now should be a raw count. The CB is a sport specific number, right? May have a 15 CB in football and 0 in soccer and 30 in basketball. Just depends on who is on the roster, their status, and their multiplier.Sonny Weaver wrote: ↑Fri Feb 09, 2024 8:35 amthe appeal is just a recount from OHSAA.TigerBob wrote: ↑Wed Feb 07, 2024 6:49 pm 1. What would be involved in the appeals process? I doubt Wheelersburg miscounted. And they aren’t going to lower the number they report to the state. So I’m not sure how that even works?
2. Given Wheelersburg’s CB number won’t be 0, this seems to put them squarely in D4. If that’s R16, Wheelersburg already beats McNick, one of the better programs in the region. If it’s 15, I guess Steubenville and possibly Harley are in the way, but neither are what they used to be. Would moving up even be bad?
the way it was explained to me was as follows: counted 204 including CB, however it is believed that the CB was counted twice.
and the math actually supports this reasoning.
174 boys + 15 CB is 189 total.
174 boys + 30 CB (mistakenly counted twice) is 204 total.
I'm not claiming to know the exact numbers, but this idea is very plausible as the 174 + 15 CB is similar to what Burg has had in recent years.
But yes, D4 might be a blessing in disguise
HP definitely trending up, not sure about Ironton. Given what they are bringing back, not winning the region would be a disaster.Tri_State79 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 09, 2024 1:21 pmTri_State79 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 09, 2024 10:41 amCouldn't get it done in D5 and jumping up a division isn't gonna help the cause. Ironton and Burg program still trending in different directions and Ironton and Prep at d5 will put another significantly more talented product on the field than d4 Burg in 24Valley91 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 08, 2024 6:35 am
But when Burg does win their region they make it count. If they have won their region 3 times in 25 years and the state titles in three attempts that’s a winning percentage of .667. What is irontons a winning percentage if they win the region? Guaranteed not that good. Getting there is one thing winning it all is another. Just like the old saying close but no cigar.
Correct. The gap in talent is burgs burden in comparison to IHS and HP