Region 21

[kvnchambers]

okay forgot to subtract the Athens points from nelsonvilles max i had. so
they would be at 15.5 points. and move down to 6th. and i di this region this morning before i knew about a ready lost. plus i don't know a lot of teams on their schedule i am probably overestimating their secondary points. or the spread sheet i have been working off of i have slid something to wrong place. but all i did was took the max left available and subtracted what i thought they wouldn't get unless a team i thought would lose. so i really didn't look at secondary match-ups. yet. was waiting for eitel to put his up so i could see if i messed something up. when a team loses i delete things and sometimes i don't delete all the cells and it gets things miss aligned.

[kvnchambers]

okay yea i made several mistakes i think i didn't finish or something this should look a little closer
fredericktown 20.85
valley 20.4
grandview heights 18.7
ridgewood 16.2
centerburg 16.0
nelsonville york 15.35
monroe central 15.35
belpre 14.05
oak hill 13.8

[hammer89]

Region 21 Projections:
1 Fredricktown
2.Lucasville Valley
3. Centerburg
4. Monroe Central
5. Grandview Heights
6. Ridgewood
7. Nelsonville York
8. Oak Hill

9.Belpre
10.Bishop Ready

No way MC finishes #4 unless some major upsets happen to teams in front of them. Joe is updated with his max average and min average for each team. After Nelsonville loses to Athens in Week 10 it looks like the #4 spot will come down to Centerburg or Ridgewood. Grandview should win this week and have the #3 spot locked down.

[getright]

Region 21 Projections:
1 Fredricktown
2.Lucasville Valley
3. Centerburg
4. Monroe Central
5. Grandview Heights
6. Ridgewood
7. Nelsonville York
8. Oak Hill

9.Belpre
10.Bishop Ready

No way MC finishes #4 unless some major upsets happen to teams in front of them. Joe is updated with his max average and min average for each team. After Nelsonville loses to Athens in Week 10 it looks like the #4 spot will come down to Centerburg or Ridgewood. Grandview should win this week and have the #3 spot locked down.

I have grandview heights losing this week to Madison plains bumping Centerburg up to 3 and monroe either 6th the or 5th after week 9 and after week 10 I have them at 4th. I don't know if I did all this right, i doubt I did. But it just what I see, probably not right

[hammer89]

I would be surprised if Madison Plains beats Grandview. They seem to be in a freefall. They got whipped by a very mediocre Columbus Academy team Friday night that Grandview beat by 12. Also looks like Ready's opponent from Michigan next week has cancelled on them so Joe only has them listed with nine games and a L2 divisor of 89. But with their loss to Bellaire yesterday I think they are done unless they could somehow upset Hartley in week 10, and that is not happening. About the only hope for MC to get in the top 4 is if both Centerburg or Ridgewood get upset in the last 2 weeks. The only game I see a chance of that happening is the Ridgewood/Newcomerstown meeting in week 10. Possible but not likely.

[INDIAN58]

Not sure if the various projections account for presumably NY losing to Athens, and with Grandview beating WJ. Barring a Madison Plains win, I'm thinking the current top 4 seeds are going to look pretty much how they are now. I guess if Ready does the unlikely week 10 then that could propel them in there somewhere?

Seems like most of the question marks are in the 5-8 seeds, with really about 5 teams in play for the 7-8 seeds.

That being said the more I look at this Region it sure seems like it's wide open, just have to get to week 11.

[hammer89]

Right now I see it like this:

1 Fredericktown (win out)
2 Valley (loss to Burg)
3 Grandview Heights (win out)
4 Centerburg/Ridgewood (both win out)
5 Centerburg/Ridgewood
6 Nelsonville-York (loss to Athens)
7 Monroe Central (win out)
8 ??? looks like about 4 teams still have a shot.

I agree dses, this Region is wide open.

[getright]

Im excited for week 11 to come around, regardless of what seeding Monroe Central gets. I think this region will have a lot of great games!

[nutronron2012]

Im excited for week 11 to come around, regardless of what seeding Monroe Central gets. I think this region will have a lot of great games!

If everything goes like it should, I see Monroe Central getting a 7 seed and coming to Valley.

[Crab's Brother]

Well I finally had a chance to sit down and play with the numbers. Here is what I have:

1. Valley (23.9) (Or 19.9 with a loss to Burg)
2. Fredericktown (22.15)
3. Grandview (18.7)
4. Centerburg (15.55)
5. Nelsonville (15.3)
6. Monroe Central (15.29)
7. Ridgewood (14.85)
8. Belpre (13.61)

9. Coal Grove (13.05)
10. Oak Hill (13.00)
11. Ready (10.19)


Some notes:

- First off, I am a Valley fan. I know that we are behind the 8-ball this week with injuries and not having Coach on the sidelines or involved in the game plan, but I do feel like that if we get healthy and come to play, we have a real good chance to win Friday. So that is why I still list the Indians as #1. Hey, it is my post and I do what I want. :122245 :122245

- I think the top 2 are fairly set, but if things fall a few "weird" ways Grandview could have the points to pass an 8-2 Valley team for the #2 spot. We will know more on that this week.

- I agree with what was said previously about Madison Plains falling apart. I think Grandview has little problems winning out.

- I am fairly certain about Centerburg's total. It shouldn't change a whole lot and I am fairly confident that they will host.

- Here is where things get interesting.....Nelsonville's total may only go down. I have River Valley beating Northwest as of now, but that could easily go the other way. As it stands now, I have Union Local beating Bellaire, but that looks like I may be wrong. Either the Big Reds are getting better, or Ready packed it in. Not sure. So, if Bellaire beats UL, I think you can flop Ridgewood and MC.

- Belpre looks to be in as of now, but there are some games that can change it real quick. I don't see Coal Grove's number getting much higher. I have Meigs winning out and Finneytown losing out. I think I have the Grove "maxed out".

- The only other hurdle for Belpre then would be Oak Hill. The Oaks have became huge fans of Wellston and Chesapeake. As I have it now, I have Peake losing to Waverly and Wellston losing to Meigs. If those games go the other way, Oak Hill would be at 13.96 and pass Belpre.

[schmittie32]

Does Coal Grove have any realistic shot of sneaking in? I figured if they beat Chesapeake (and win out) they'd be a virtual lock to make it in

[Crab's Brother]

Does Coal Grove have any realistic shot of sneaking in? I figured if they beat Chesapeake (and win out) they'd be a virtual lock to make it in

They would need some help.

[wobycat]

At first I thought this region would be tough, the more I look at it, I feel valley could get to the regional final.

[2trap_4ever]

Crab's Bro

How do you have Waverly going this week, a Tiger win over the Falcons can boost Grove's points enough to give them a shot of a spot after week 10.

[Crab's Brother]

Crab's Bro

How do you have Waverly going this week, a Tiger win over the Falcons can boost Grove's points enough to give them a shot of a spot after week 10.

I have Waverly losing this week. That is for sure a game that could change things. That would bring the Hornets total to 13.55 and real close to Belpre's total.

[INDIAN58]

At first I thought this region would be tough, the more I look at it, I feel valley could get to the regional final.

Agree if I had to pick a favorite I would say Valley due to playoff experience. Freddie's will be seeing their first postseason in a couple or few years and definitely the first time this senior class will be playing week 11.

Personally I'm really starting to like what I see going on with Centerburg, these boys are starting to fire on all cylinders. I wouldn't call them a favorite but I think they are just now starting to hit their stride. Might just be a fun November in the geographical center of Ohio.

[getright]

I think the Monroe Central, Grandview matchup would be a great one to see! Nelsonville and Centerburg would be a great one too, but I'd have to take Centerburg in that one.

[Westfan]

Crab's Bro

How do you have Waverly going this week, a Tiger win over the Falcons can boost Grove's points enough to give them a shot of a spot after week 10.

I have Waverly losing this week. That is for sure a game that could change things. That would bring the Hornets total to 13.55 and real close to Belpre's total.

Waverly should beat Minford. Waverly isn't bad and Minford has been hurt by injuries.

[INDIAN58]

I probably should wait until after Friday's games to ask, but can anyone give any info on Ridgewood? What type of base offense do they run? Run/pass oriented? Defense?

[m_bowens]

Not much talk about Ridgewood on here. Seems quite similar to 2009 when many didn't think the Wood was a contender in the region. Wood will be a tough draw for whoever they get in this region. Ive seen Freddies 3 times this year and Centerburg once. Both teams are solid. I would rather play York, Monroe, Oak Hill Grandview Heights or Belpre then the Wood.